The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey

Abstract The impact of the recent Customs Union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union on internal migration is studied using an intra‐industry trade Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with intersectoral capital mobility under two alternative specifications for the labor market: the traditional Harris‐Todaro approach and the existence of a “wage curve” in the urban sector. Under both specifications, the numerical results show that the CU is welfare enhancing and causes a reduction of the urban‐rural wage gap as suggested by theoretical studies. At the same time, it leads to rural‐to‐urban migration and raises the capital rent, results that are counter intuitive with respect to the dual economy literature. Furthermore, the rise in formal labor demand and the migration response to the CU have not resulted in an increase in urban unemployment (i.e. the “Todaro paradox”), but rather to a fall in the unemployment pool. The study also shows that the Bhagwati‐Srinivasan proposal of maximizing welfare by uniformly subsidizing the entire labor market is impracticable, especially if the high wage union sector can negotiate employment conditions.     

Noah’s Grandson and St. James: Rewriting the Past in Eighteenth-Century Spain

ABSTRACT

In the late seventeenth century, when Spain gradually emerged from the general crisis that had afflicted the country, several members of the cultural elite became acquainted with the new sophisticated theories and methods of modern science. This newly acquired knowledge inspired these novatores (innovators) to examine Spain’s history and historiography. They intended in the first place to integrate and align Spain with European culture at large, since the religious and ideological obstacles of the past were supposedly no longer in force. Their second purpose was to establish a scientifically based historical discourse focused on the genuine achievements of Spain over the centuries and its contribution to European civilization. They were thus willing to confront the long-standing distortions arising from propaganda, either from the outside—such as the “black legend” forged by the enemies of Spain—or from inside—such as the “fake glories” forged by earlier historians. Diverse circumstances, however, limited their enlightened endeavour, and whoever was eager to resume it in the eighteenth century came up against the restrictions imposed on modern culture by Enlightened despotism.     

Seeing into hearts and minds: Part 2. ‘Big data’, algorithms,and computational counterinsurgency

In this second of his two‐part article, the author analyzes the rise of ‘predictive policing’ and its Pentagon connections, reviews two programmes, and poses these in the context of scientists' concerns over artificial intelligence and long‐term human survival.     

Seeing into hearts and minds: Part 1. The Pentagon's quest for a ‘social radar’ (Respond to this article at https://www.therai.org.uk/publications/anthropology-today/debate)

In this two‐part article, explored are the many funded programmes by which security agencies and private companies mine ‘big data’ and attempt to measure the sociocultural and psychological states of whole populations. How is failure or success measured? What kinds of new institutions/practices might these give rise to? Part 1 ‘The Pentagon's quest for a “social radar”’, published in this issue, comes to terms with today's many sociocultural modelling and forecasting efforts, looks in detail at one company in particular, and ends up reviewing the role of anthropologists in their development and critique. Part 2 ‘“Big data”, algorithms, and computational counterinsurgency’, to be published in a future issue, will analyze the rise of ‘predictive policing’ and its Pentagon connections, reviews two programmes, and poses these in the context of scientists' concerns over artificial intelligence and long‐term human survival.