Modeling Migration Careers,Using Data from a British Survey

Development of more sophisticated techniques for modeling longitudinal data has implications for improving our understanding of migration. This paper uses longitudinal data from the British Social Change and Economic Life initiative to disentangle the effects of population heterogeneity, progress through the life cycle and secular change on observed migration differentials. The data consist of retrospective life histories from people sampled in several contrasting localities in Great Britain, in which residential moves can be linked to changes in occupation and household structure. We present a framework for analysis of data of this type using a generalized linear modeling approach, together with results concerning variations in the probability of migration with age, gender, and changes in household and occupational circumstances. Of particular note is the evidence of substantial duration-of-residence effects and an unexpected later-career increase in migration propensity.     

A DYNAMIC INTRSECTORAL,MODEL OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. The dynamic relationship between sectoral value added and regional economic growth is analyzed using a stochastic intersectoral model estimated by ordinary least squares and linear systems techniques. A state-space portion of the model identifies the time element of sedoral value added. Dynamic multipliers, tracing the temporal path of regional growth, are calculated for the state of Georgia over the period 1963–1986. This application shows that the impacts of sectoral shocks can follow cyclical as well as monotonic patterns and that the direction and magnitude of the impact may change over time.     

BOOM AND BUST: THE EFFECTS OF HOUSE PRICE INFLATION ON HOMEOWNERSHIP PATTERNS IN MONTREAL, TORONTO, AND VANCOUVER

it is widely supposed that urban house price inflation has recently put ownership beyond the reach of many potential home buyers. In fact, between 1974 and 1982 this was not uniformly the case in Canada's three largest cities. Homeownership rates declined in Vancouver, held steady in Toronto, and increased in Montreal. In Montreal all social classes shared in an ownership boom. In Toronto, the middle class fared well, blue-collar workers rather poorly. In Vancouver, blue-collar workers held their own, but the middle class lost ground. Everywhere the relative position of the self-employed declined. The geographical impact of house price inflation has been variable while the social and political implications merit study. There is a need for synthetic studies of specific cities.