THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS. AGGREGATE INFORMATION*

ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time‐series methods for short‐run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state‐level data set from 1960–2001. We test the out‐of‐sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state‐level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in‐sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a “greener” median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.     

Contextualizing Kuruçay Höyük: Assessing the Unexplored Late Chalcolithic Landscape Near the Beginning of Early Social Complexity in SW Turkey

Kuruçay Höyük can be considered a key site for our understanding of Late Prehistory in southwest Turkey and above all, the poorly known Late Chalcolithic (4200–3100 b.c.). Until now, limited research has been conducted on the relationship between the excavated site and its surrounding. This article discusses the Late Chalcolithic results of an integrated survey in the vicinity of Kuruçay Höyük in the Burdur Plain. Drawing upon these results, this paper illustrates that the site was far from an isolated feature during the 4th millennium b.c. The picture that emerges is one of a differentiated settlement system consisting of both larger höyük/tell settlements (like Kuruçay Höyük) and smaller sized, possibly short-lived, flat settlements. These results are further contextualized within the developments that took place in the region during the Chalcolithic, which seem to have opened the door for communities to become more complex during the Early Bronze Age.