The changing pattern of urban fertility in eastern Australia 1966–1976

The article seeks to enhance understanding of post-transitional demographic change by examining the working out at the local level of the macro-scale societal processes underpinning the recent cyclic oscillation in Australian reproductive behaviour. Variations in urban marital and overall fertility between 1966 and 1971 and between 1971 and 1976 are described and analysed. In general, inter-urban variability in both measures diminished greatly, as did the explanatory power of ecological differentials, suggesting widespread acceptance of the small family norm throughout the study-area. While the process of convergence was continuous for marital fertility, structural changes contributed to later divergence of overall fertility levels, in accordance with Alonso's cyclical model of change. The current low level of residual inter-urban variability suggests that little more may be gained from analyses of this type.     

Some Extensions of Mills's Method for Urban Population Density Gradient Estimation

This paper extends Milk's method for estimating urban population density gradients to general noncircular and asymmetrical urban forms, using Gauss-Legendre quadrature embedded in a Newton-Raphson root finding algorithm. We also examine the sensitivity of the Mills method to measurement errors in the assumptions. Several issues arising from the comparison of analytical, Mills type estimation procedures with statistical procedures are explored, particularly in light of recent work that questions the negative exponential formulation of urban density gradients. We note in particular the influence of secondary population centers as a source of estimation bias.