Reassessing the chronology of the Mississippian Central Illinois River Valley using Bayesian analysis

Chronology building has long served as a major focus of archaeological interest in the Central Illinois River valley (CIRV) of west-central Illinois. Previous methods have relied primarily upon relative dating techniques (e.g., ceramic seriation) as a means of sorting out temporal relationships between sites. This study represents the first investigation into the utility of Bayesian techniques (which consider radiocarbon dates in context with archaeological information) in the CIRV. We present the results of a detailed ceramic seriation of the region, data that we use as a priori information in our Bayesian models. We then offer contiguous, overlapping, and sequential models of site occupations in the Mississippian CIRV, review the output and appropriateness of each model, and consider their implications for the pace of sociopolitical change in the region.     

Engagement in a Public Forum: Knowledge,Action, and Cosmopolitanism

Facing challenges to the civic purpose of higher education, some scholars and administrators turn to the rhetoric of engagement. Simultaneously, the political philosophy of cosmopolitanism has gained intellectual favor, advocating openness to the lived experiences of distant others. We articulate linkages between these two discourses in an extended case study, finding that a cosmopolitan ethos of engagement in a rural context can improve (1) understanding among people ordinarily separated by spatialized social‐ecological differences, (2) prospects for longer term environmental sustainability, and (3) the visionary potential of collaborative inquiry. Despite globalization of food systems and neoliberal shifts in fishery management, an annual fisheries forum facilitates coalitions that overcome dichotomies between technocratic and local knowledge, extending benefits to fishing communities, academia, and public policy. Iterative and loosely structured capacity building expands informally through affective processes of recognition and care, as decentralized leadership supports collective mobilization toward alternate futures.     

Dynamic Models of Agricultural Location in a Spatial Interaction Framework

Recent research demonstrates that spatial interaction models may also be made to function as location models by the addition of appropriate hypotheses about structural adjustment. An appealing feature of the approach is that dynamics are explicitly incorporated. In this paper, the attempt is made to recast a problem from classical economic-geographic theory—that of agricultural location—within a spatial interaction framework. It is shown that a wide variety of models is potentially available, and the properties of a range of these models are selectively explored.     

Understanding Prehistoric Lithic Raw Material Selection: Application of a Gravity Model

Provenance studies can tell us which sources of lithic raw material were used in the past, but can they tell us why? After all, many factors can have entered into a person’s choice to use one source rather than another. Those factors can be grouped into two categories, the geologic/geographic characteristics of the source itself (quality, abundance, size of pieces, etc.), and the human factors (direction of travel, time available, social restrictions, etc.). This paper demonstrates how the geologic/geographic characteristics can be quantified and calculated together to give one value, the attractiveness of the source, which can then be used in a gravity model approach to predict which sources ‘should’ have been used more than others. Deviations from the predicted pattern point to situations where the human factors were of greater or lesser importance. The values are also used to delineate geographical areas within which particular sources would be likely to be used (‘areas of influence’), which gives us a useful new way of understanding the landscape within which the prehistoric group lived.     

Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia

The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a crucial element of any set of subnational population forecasts. However, subnational forecasts are currently prepared using deterministic models, which fail to properly address the issue of demographic uncertainty. The traditional high, medium, and low variants approach employed by many national statistical offices poses a number of problems. Probabilistic population forecasting models have the potential to overcome many of these problems, but these models have so far been limited to national-level forecasts. This article reports a first attempt to implement a probabilistic approach to subnational population forecasting using a biregional projection framework. The article sets out the forecasting framework, outlines the approach adopted to formulate each of the assumptions, and presents probabilistic forecasts for 2002–2051 for Queensland and the rest of Australia. The forecasts show a two-thirds probability that Queensland's population in 2051 will be between 5.4 and 7.7 million while the same range for the rest of the country is 18.6 and 22.7 million. The forecasts quantify to what extent greater uncertainty exists about the demographic future at the subnational compared with the national scale.     

Military Anxiety and Genocide: Explaining Campaigns of Annihilation (and Their Absence)

When and why do states launch campaigns of genocide against minorities? In 2017, in a violent campaign increasingly described as genocide, the Myanmar military drove almost 700,000 Rohingya from Rakhine State into Bangladesh killing an estimated 6,700 in the first month and an unknown number overall. This assault is particularly puzzling given the international goodwill and economic benefits the regime was accruing since it opened its political system after decades of isolation. Scholars have identified a number of causes of genocide yet this literature requires development in two areas. First, few studies compare cases of genocide with situations of lower level political violence, meaning it is difficult to distinguish between societies that are simply violent from those which are genocidal. Second, despite the central role played by militaries in genocide, most studies have treated the institution as simply a tool of nationalists and other genocidal leaders rather than as actors with their own incentives and fears. In this study, I develop an explanation of genocide that places militaries at its centre. I contend that armed forces sometimes choose genocide during periods of rapid political change when they perceive a serious threat to their political and economic interests or self-appointed status as “guardian of the nation.” My study begins with a comparison between Rakhine State, Myanmar and a similarly volatile region that has avoided genocide, Assam in Northeast India. In a later stage of theory testing I examine another case of genocide, Indonesia in 1965/66.     

At Once the Saviours and the Saved: “Diaspora Girls”, Dangerous Places,and Smart Power

This article explores how racially marked young women and girls are sought to be discursively and materially incorporated into markets and imperial economic and geopolitical strategies in spatially differentiated ways, through an examination of a series of media productions which portray the engagement of young racialised British citizens with their countries of heritage. I propose the term “diaspora girls” to refer to the protagonists of these media productions, who are understood as embodying “British” post‐feminist gender values and heroically carrying them to “dangerous” spaces of gender oppression and violence. In the context of current constructions of diasporas as agents of development, alongside the framing of migration as a “security threat” to the global North, these British citizens are viewed as ideally positioned to further the contemporary imperialist project. Their perceived empowerment is understood to be fragile and contingent, however, because of their affective connection with these spaces. Further, for those who are Muslim in particular, their perceived Britishness is understood as requiring continual reaffirmation and proof, thus reinforcing racialised structures of citizenship, and legitimising a border regime which reinscribes permanent North–South inequality.