Exploring the Relations Between Riverbank Erosion and Geomorphological Controls Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

The relations between riverbank erosion and geomorphological variables that are thought to control or influence erosion are commonly modelled using regression. For a given river, a single regression model might befitted to data on erosion and its geomorphological controls obtained along the river's length. However, it is likely that the influence of some variables may vary with geographical location (i.e., distance upstream). For this reason, the spatially stationary regression model should be replaced with a non‐stationary equivalent. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a suitable choice. In this paper, GWR is extended to predict the binary presence or absence of erosion via the logistic model. This extended model was applied to data obtained from historical archives and a spatially intensive field survey of a length of 42 km of the Afon Dyfi in West Wales. The model parameters and the residual deviance of the model varied greatly with distance upstream. The practical implication of the result is that different management practices should be implemented at different locations along the river. Thus, the approach presented allowed inference of spatially varying management practice as a consequence of spatially varying geomorphological process.     

The Reformation of the Eyes: Apparitions and Optics in Sixteenth- and Seventeenth-Century Europe

Apparitions were the subject of fierce theological and philosophical debate in the period after the Reformation. But these controversies also raised issues fundamental to the nature and organization of human vision. They crossed and recrossed the boundaries between religion and the science and psychology of optics. Apparitions, after all, are things that appear, and spectres are things that are seen. Before they could mean anything to anyone they had to be correctly identified as phenomena. Their religious role, whether Protestant or Catholic, presupposed a perceptual judgement — essentially visual in character — about just what they were. During the early modern period this judgement — this visual identification — became vastly more complex and contentious than ever before, certainly much more so than in the case of medieval ghosts. The sceptics, natural magicians, and atheists turned apparitions into optical tricks played by nature or human artifice; the religious controversialists and demonologists thought that demons might also be responsible. This essay argues that the debate that ensued, irrespective of the confessional allegiances of the protagonists, was the occasion for some of the most sustained and sophisticated of the early modern arguments about truth and illusion in the visual world.     

Border protection,the 2001 Australian election and the coalition victory

While the issue of refugees and asylum-seekers has preoccupied many European countries, until the November 2001 federal election Australia had largely been immune from the problem. In the election, border protection—combining the Tampa crisis with the ‘war against terrorism’—were central electoral issues. Analysis of the 2001 Australian Election Study shows that border protection cost Labor the election. Labor suffered defections to the Democrats and Greens over its position on refugees and asylum-seekers, and defections to the Coalition on terrorism. Negative public attitudes towards asylum-seekers rested on oppo sition to immigration, but also on a particular dislike of arrivals from the Middle East. By contrast, support for the ‘war on terrorism’ was based mainly on notions of fairness and democracy. Of the two border protection issues— asylum-seekers and terrorism—terrorism was the more important of the two in shaping the election outcome. If 11 September had occurred but the Tampa crisis had not, the Coalition would in all probability still have won the election.     

The 1983 change in surplus vote transfer procedures for the Australian senate and its consequences for the single transferable vote

Among the 1983 changes to the electoral rules for Australian Senate elections using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) was a new procedure for determining the transfer of vote surpluses. The adoption of this modified (‘inclusive’) Gregory method has tended to be overlooked in the literature, yet as this article shows—using both hypothetical and real-world examples—it incorporates an anomaly that could have significance for electoral outcomes. This has important implications not only with regard to whether the ‘correct’ candidate is elected, but also for wider social choice debates over the quasi-chaotic nature of STV.     

The rights of a Florida wife: slavery, U.S. expansion, and married women's property law

Civil law rules were adopted in Florida that granted married women property rights long before legal reforms occurred in northern states. This article analyzes white wives' property and law in Florida between 1820 and 1860. Initially, married women's property rights were inadvertently protected by treaty law and limited to women who married before 1818. Wives' right to own separate property in Florida was subsequently reconfirmed in statute and extended to include later marriages. In contrast, nonwhites generally lost the rights and property they had enjoyed under Spain's civil law in the same period. This contrast reveals that in Florida (and other southern borderlands) it was not concern for women, or simply legal precedent, but the desire to incorporate new territory and expand slavery that influenced the development of marital property law. This challenges previous histories, which have excluded the earlier acts in the Southern borderlands and emphasized those passed in the Northeast beginning in the late 1840s. While those later acts were influenced by the early woman's rights movement and by concern for families reduced to poverty during the rise of market capitalism, this case study indicates that expansion of United States territory and slavery were responsible for the earlier married women's property rights in southern borderland territories such as Florida.     

The Prehistoric Development of Clothing: Archaeological Implications of a Thermal Model

This paper presents a thermal model for the prehistoric origin and development of clothing. A distinction is drawn between simple and complex forms of clothing, with broad implications for the interpretation of paleolithic technological transitions and the emergence of modern human behavior. Physiological principles and paleoenvironmental data are harnessed to identify conditions requiring simple, loosely draped garments and the more challenging conditions that demanded additional protection in the form of complex garment assemblages. No actual clothing survives from the Pleistocene, yet the archaeological record yields evidence for technological and other correlates of clothing—more evidence than is generally supposed. Major innovations and trends in the distributions and relative frequencies of lithic and other tool forms may reflect the changing need for portable insulation in the context of fluctuating ice age climates. Moreover, the nonthermal repercussions of complex clothing can be connected with archaeological signatures of modern human behavior, notably adornment. Alternative models are less parsimonious in accounting for the geographical and temporal variability of prominent technological and other behavioral patterns in association with environmental change.     

罗马帝国的地方政府——以不列颠为例

本文通过分析罗马政府在不列颠的运作以揭示元首制时期罗马行省体系的运作机制。对总督及代理官任命之考察表明,罗马官员具有非职业性,他们生活在相对固定的晋升体系中,一生需要出任诸多不同职位,并没有为出任某个职位接受专门训练,所以无法发展出专业行政知识。此外,元首制时期官僚机构尚未增生,行省中罗马官员的数量屈指可数。这些都为地方自治开辟了空间。在某些罗马势力不易渗透的地方,地方自治政府在征服初期以藩属国的形式出现。随着时机成熟,藩属国作为一种权宜之计逐渐被具有高度自治权的城市所代替。城市里的地方官员在刑事案件之审理和直接税之征收方面发挥了重要作用。尽可能把行政负担转嫁到地方政府身上是罗马帝国正常运转的奥秘所在。     

公元前五世纪雅典法令铭文十篇译注

本文所选铭文系雅典在公元前5世纪中叶颁布的部分法令,集中反映出作为盟主之邦的雅典在政治、经济及司法等诸多方面对盟邦主权的肆意践踏,是解读该时期雅典历史的重要原始资料。国外古典学界对古希腊传世铭文的释读与研究极为重视,其中较权威的选本为R·梅格斯与D·刘易斯整理的《希腊历史铭文选》,亦是本文所依据的文本。