Water availability and landuse during the Upper and Epipaleolithic in southwestern Syria

Paleolithic research often assumes that environmental conditions played a major role in shaping human evolution. To study this relationship we present a spatially explicit approach based on the assumption that the distribution of water within the landscape is an essential component of local environmental conditions. Here, we analyze the relation of wetness and human landuse patterns from the Upper Paleolithic (UP) and Epipaleolithic (EP) of Western Syria. In particular the spatially explicit character of the approach enables the detection of a significant change in landuse patterns during the UP and EP accompanied by a significant shift in the wetness characteristics of the preferentially used areas. These results are discussed against the background of published data on climatic conditions in order to identify both a possible time frame and triggers for this change in landuse. While we conclude an increased influence of natural conditions on the spatial behavior for the UP, we suggest an additional influence of cultural circumstances in shaping EP spatial behavior. For the region studied we argue that the bounded pattern observed during the UP changes to a spatially flexible pattern during the Late Natufian.     

Prediction of Bike-sharing Trip Counts: Comparing Parametric Spatial Regression Models to a Geographically Weighted XGBoost Algorithm

Regression models are commonly applied in the analysis of transportation data. This research aims at broadening the range of methods used for this task by modeling the spatial distribution of bike-sharing trips in Cologne, Germany, applying both parametric regression models and a modified machine learning approach while incorporating measures to account for spatial autocorrelation. Independent variables included in the models consist of land use types, elements of the transport system and sociodemographic characteristics. Out of several regression models with different underlying distributions, a Tweedie generalized additive model is chosen by its values for AIC, RMSE, and sMAPE to be compared to an XGBoost model. To consider spatial relationships, spatial splines are included in the Tweedie model, while the estimations of the XGBoost model are modified using a geographically weighted regression. Both methods entail certain advantages: while XGBoost leads to far better values regarding RMSE and sMAPE and therefore to a better model fit, the Tweedie model allows an easier interpretation of the influence of the independent variables including spatial effects.     

Varieties of nationalism in the political discourses of Habsburg Austria

Nationalism in the Habsburg Empire is traditionally viewed through an ethnic lens. Despite a growing literature on ‘national indifference’ that studies nationalism in Habsburg central Europe from a constructivist perspective and advances our knowledge concerning variations in national identifications, the nationalism implied in these works remains largely limited to an exclusionary ethnic type. This reductionist view of central European nationalism mirrors the traditional dichotomy of ethnic ‘Eastern’ versus civic ‘Western’ nationalism. In order to avoid this reduction, this article approaches nationalism as a thin-centred ideology and explores varieties of nationalism in Habsburg Austria during the long 19th century. Although certain ideational paths made ethno-nationalism appear, retrospectively, as a quasi-natural feature of central Europe, the findings show that there developed rival discursive traditions of nationalism and competing representations of nation.     

The social mind: disentangling affective and cognitive routes to understanding others

ABSTRACT

To flexibly adjust behaviour to that of other people around us requires some representation of their overt actions, but also of the driving forces behind them, that is, their goals, intentions, and emotions. Socio-affective and -cognitive functions enable such representations via creating vicarious affective states in the observer (empathy) or by accumulating abstract, propositional knowledge of another person’s mental state (Theory of Mind). While the empathic sharing of another’s emotions is implemented by those neural networks that also process first-hand emotion, Theory of Mind activates a widespread network that seems to process information independent of its specific modality or content. Crucially, these two routes can function independently as individual differences in the respective capacities and network activations are unrelated and selective impairments in one or the other function occur in psychopathology. However, they may co-activate and co-operate in complex social situations, determining how prosocially interactive behaviour unfolds.     

Possibilism: An Approach to Problem‐Solving Derived from the Life and Work of Albert O. Hirschman

Albert O. Hirschman is the author of seminal, but prima facie unconnected contributions to the social sciences (‘exit–voice’, ‘linkages’). Yet, his main originality lies in his general approach to problem‐solving which is hidden behind the complexity of his oeuvre. This article intends to disentangle the intricacies of his work and to reveal his specific mode of investigation by making the multifaceted biographical influences on Hirschman's scholarly writings visible. Exhibiting the influence that decisive moments in his life had on his work not only allows us to identify and define his method of ‘possibilism’: it also shows that this approach remains a valid and useful multidisciplinary tool for unorthodox contemporary social analysis.     

Jenseits von Afrika – Neue entwicklungspolitische Ideen für den DVAG

Dipl.-Geograph Dr. Andreas Spaeth ist seit Herbst 2001 Vorstandsvorsitzender des DVAG. Mit dem Wechsel an der Verbandsspitze hat sich auch sonst einiges ge?ndert: Mehrere Vorstandsposten wurden neu besetzt, ein neuer Arbeitskreis ins Leben gerufen. Die Gesch?fte des Verbandes betreibt jetzt die Firma lat/lon in Bonn. Andreas Spaeth, der seit fast 25 Jahren in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit aktiv ist, verbrachte einen gro?en Teil seines Berufslebens im asiatischen und afrikanischen Ausland. Allein neun Jahre davon lebte und arbeitete er mit seiner Familie in Kenia. Mit Dipl.-Geographin Ute Bauer sprach er über seine beruflichen Erfahrungen in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und über seine Vorstellungen zur Zukunft des DVAG . Correspondence to:Andreas Spaeth     

‘With utmost certainty’: two late medieval pioneers of technical chronology

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on the chronological methods developed and deployed by two little known medieval scholars, Giles of Lessines (active in the 1260s) and Heinrich Selder (1370s), both of whom made noteworthy advances in the use of astronomy to establish dates and intervals between events in ancient history. Based on their reading of Ptolemy's Almagest, both authors emphasised the importance of dated astronomical observations, such as eclipses, arguing that the recorded intervals between these observations were endowed with a unique degree of reliability. Several key examples of how they mobilised Ptolemy's astronomical data to rectify parts of the timeline between the creation of the world and the present will be discussed. These show that the technical arguments contained in Giles’ and Selder's writings reached a level of sophistication and accuracy that has previously only been associated with chronologers of the early modern and later periods.     

Estimation of Anisotropic,Time-Varying Spatial Spillovers of Fine Particulate Matter Due to Wind Direction

This paper investigates the effect of daily wind direction and speed on the spatio-temporal distribution of particulate matter, . Interdependencies between the values of different monitoring sites are characterized by incorporating time-varying anisotropic spatial weighting matrices. These weights are parameterized with respect to wind direction, speed and a range that marks the bandwidth of admissible deviations between wind direction and bearing. The empirical analysis is based on daily values recorded by monitoring sites located across the eastern United States in 2015 as well as several meteorological regressors. More precisely, we propose a space-time dynamic panel data model with different spatial autoregressive, temporal and exogenous dependencies. All model parameters are estimated by the quasi-maximum likelihood approach. The estimation procedure, including the identification of the range and spatial parameters, is verified by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that part of the spatial dependency of values is explained by wind direction.