A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

THE LOGISTICS-COST LOCATION-PRODUCTION PROBLEM*

ABSTRACT. The paper applies an inventory model to the standard Weber-Moses location-production problem. By setting the problem within a time framework, costs are seen to be incurred by both the holding of goods and the shipment of goods. The optimum location of the firm is seen to depend not only on transportation costs and the nature of the firm's production function, but also on the value of the materials being shipped. Under these conditions there is no homogeneous solution to the Weber-Moses problem. Furthermore, it is shown that the value added at the point of production is the primary factor which governs the optimum location of the firm.     

The culture history of Madagascar

Madagascar's culture is a unique fusion of elements drawn from the western, northern, and eastern shores of the Indian Ocean, and its past has fascinated many scholars, yet systematic archaeological research is relatively recent on the island. The oldest traces of visitors are from the first century AD. Coastal settlements, with clear evidence of ties to the western Indian Ocean trading network, were established in several places over the next millennium. Important environmental changes of both plant and animal communities are documented over this period, including the extinctions of almost all large animal species. Urban life in Madagascar began with the establishment of the entrepôt of Mahilaka on the northwest coast of the island in the twelfth century. At about the same time, communities with ties to the trade network were established around the island's coasts. From the fourteenth to the sixteenth century, social hierarchies developed in several regions of the island. During the succeeding two centuries, Madagascar saw the development of state polities.     

Book reviews

Adam Watson, Diplomacy: the dialogue between states. Eyre Methuen, London, 1982, pp.239. $28.95.

Desmond Ball and J.O. Langtry (eds). Civil Defence and Australia's Security in the Nuclear Age. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Canberra, and George Allen and Unwin Australia, Sydney. 1983, pp. 359. $12.95.

Bruce Grant, Gods and Politicians. Allen Lane, Ringwood, Victoria, 1982, pp.wi + 190. $16.95.

B.A. Santamaria, Santamaria, Against the Tide. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1981, pp. 382. $22.50

M.M. Kritz. C.B. Keely and S.M. Tomasi (eds.), Global Trends in Migration: Theory and Research on International Population Movements. The Centre for Migration Studies, New York, 1981, pp.xi + 433. $US14.95 (cloth), $US9.95 (paper).

Robert Cassen, Richard Jolly, John Sewell and Robert Wood (eds). Rich Country Interests and Third World Development. Croom Helm, London and Canberra, 1982, pp. 369. $27.75.

David Childs, The GDR: Moscow's German Ally. George Allen and Unwin, London, 1983, pp. xiii + 346. $49.95 (cloth), $19.95 (paper).

Alexander Shtromas, Political Change and Social Development; The Case of the Soviet Union. Verlag Peter Lang, Bern, 1981, pp 173. S Fr 40.

Joel K. Goldstein, The Modern American Vice Presidency. The Transformation of a Political Institution. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1982, pp. xxii + 409. $US36.50 (cloth) $US 10.50 (paper).

Colin Mackerras, Modern China ‐ A Chronology from 1842 to the Present. Thames and Hudson, London, 1982, pp. 703. $60.00

John H. Fincher, Chinese Democracy: The Self Government Movement in Local. Provincial and National Politics, 1905–1914. Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1981, pp. 27s6. $23.95.

A.J. Youngson, Hong Kong: Economic Growth and Policy. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong, 1982, pp. 163. $10.95.

Peter Wesley‐Smith, Unequal Treaty 1898–1997: China. Great Britain and Hong Kong's New Territories. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong. 1980, pp. XV + 270. $39.00.

Michael Leifer, Indonesia's Foreign Policy. George Allen & Unwin, London, 1983, pp. xvii + 198. $39.95.

Grant Evans, The Yellow Rainmakers. New Left Books/Verso, London, 1983, pp. 202. $33.50 (cloth) $10.50 (paper).

Stewart Firth, New Guinea Under the Germans. Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 1982, pp. xiii + 216. $25.00.

R.J. May (ed.), Micronationalist Movements in Papua New Guinea. Political and Social Change Monograph No. 1, Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, 1982, pp. xi. + 486 $9.50.

Politics in Melanesia. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1982, pp. xxi + 170. $4.00

Foreign Forces in Pacific Politics. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1983, pp. xv + 325, $6.00.

Mike Moore, A Pacific Parliament. Asia Pacific Books, Wellington and the Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1982, pp. 86. No price given.

Australia and the South Pacific. Conference Papers and Reports. Centre for Continuing Education, Australian National University, Canberra, 1983, pp. 157. $8.00.

Alan R. Taylor, The Arab Balance of Power, Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, 1982, pp. xii + 165. $US22.00 (cloth) $US11.95 (paper).

Tareq Y. Ismael, Iraq and Iran: Roots of Conflict. Syracuse University Pess. Syracuse. 1982, pp xii + 226. $US24.00 (cloth) $US12.95 (paper).

Peter Gubser, Jordan: Crossroads of Middle Eastern Events. Croom Helm, London and Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1983, pp. xi+ 139. £13.50.

Ibrahim Ibrahim (ed.), Arab Resources: The Transformation of a Society. Croom Helm, London, 1983, pp. 304. $24.25.

David Goldsworthy, The International Politics of the Namibian Dispute, Discussion Paper No. 3, 1982, pp. 41

Jock McCulloch, South Africa's Invasion of Angola: Many Reasons Why. Current Issues Brief No. 7, 1981, pp. 10 both published by the Legislative Research Service, Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra.     

Baptist Chapels as an index of cultural transition in the South Wales coalfield before 1914

“When the Welsh language dies the Welsh Congregational Union of Monmouth will of necessity die. The day of the burial of the Welsh language will be the burial day of the Union, which for centuries has been the means of the hands of God's Spirit to turn many to the Saviour. When the Welsh language expires, the spirituality and sacredness of religion will expire at the same time.”^[1]The cultural transition from Welsh to English in the developing South Wales coalfield before 1914 is reflected in the language used in Baptist chapels. Nonconformist chapels were foci of the emerging industrial culture, and the Baptists had a universal appeal to both Welsh- and English-speaking populations. The geographical distribution of Baptist chapels categorized by language of foundation is analysed in three chronological phases, during which the coalfield was transformed from a uniformly Welsh cultural area before 1860, through an intervening phase of linguistic heterogeneity, to a situation in the final phase after 1890, when the dominance of Welsh was restricted to the western section only. Moreover, the period after the foundation of a Welsh chapel was characterized by linguistic instability, since processes at work in the community created pressures for linguistic change from Welsh to English. The ensuing linguistic transition from monoglot Welsh through bilingualism to monoglot English is examined in the Monmouthshire section of the coalfield, and suggests a progressive “rolling-back” of Welsh from east to west, a rapid and regular process in which bilingualism was only a transient resting-place.