Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

Inward investment and economic development in Poland

This paper summarizes results of a research project funded by the Overseas Development Administration of the UK Government. Its aims were to explore the nature and extent of foreign direct investment in Poland, and to assess the extent of integration of such investment with the indigenous economy. The research involved interviews with Polish government ministries, banks, development agencies, inward investors and indigenous firms. It concludes that there are numerous financial and technical obstacles to indigenous business development. The majority of inward investors aim to serve the Polish and other Central and Eastern European markets rather than simply selling cheaply produced products to the West. Moreover, most have already developed significant local sourcing from Polish suppliers.     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

THE LOGISTICS-COST LOCATION-PRODUCTION PROBLEM*

ABSTRACT. The paper applies an inventory model to the standard Weber-Moses location-production problem. By setting the problem within a time framework, costs are seen to be incurred by both the holding of goods and the shipment of goods. The optimum location of the firm is seen to depend not only on transportation costs and the nature of the firm's production function, but also on the value of the materials being shipped. Under these conditions there is no homogeneous solution to the Weber-Moses problem. Furthermore, it is shown that the value added at the point of production is the primary factor which governs the optimum location of the firm.     

Book reviews

Adam Watson, Diplomacy: the dialogue between states. Eyre Methuen, London, 1982, pp.239. $28.95.

Desmond Ball and J.O. Langtry (eds). Civil Defence and Australia's Security in the Nuclear Age. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Canberra, and George Allen and Unwin Australia, Sydney. 1983, pp. 359. $12.95.

Bruce Grant, Gods and Politicians. Allen Lane, Ringwood, Victoria, 1982, pp.wi + 190. $16.95.

B.A. Santamaria, Santamaria, Against the Tide. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1981, pp. 382. $22.50

M.M. Kritz. C.B. Keely and S.M. Tomasi (eds.), Global Trends in Migration: Theory and Research on International Population Movements. The Centre for Migration Studies, New York, 1981, pp.xi + 433. $US14.95 (cloth), $US9.95 (paper).

Robert Cassen, Richard Jolly, John Sewell and Robert Wood (eds). Rich Country Interests and Third World Development. Croom Helm, London and Canberra, 1982, pp. 369. $27.75.

David Childs, The GDR: Moscow's German Ally. George Allen and Unwin, London, 1983, pp. xiii + 346. $49.95 (cloth), $19.95 (paper).

Alexander Shtromas, Political Change and Social Development; The Case of the Soviet Union. Verlag Peter Lang, Bern, 1981, pp 173. S Fr 40.

Joel K. Goldstein, The Modern American Vice Presidency. The Transformation of a Political Institution. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1982, pp. xxii + 409. $US36.50 (cloth) $US 10.50 (paper).

Colin Mackerras, Modern China ‐ A Chronology from 1842 to the Present. Thames and Hudson, London, 1982, pp. 703. $60.00

John H. Fincher, Chinese Democracy: The Self Government Movement in Local. Provincial and National Politics, 1905–1914. Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1981, pp. 27s6. $23.95.

A.J. Youngson, Hong Kong: Economic Growth and Policy. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong, 1982, pp. 163. $10.95.

Peter Wesley‐Smith, Unequal Treaty 1898–1997: China. Great Britain and Hong Kong's New Territories. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong. 1980, pp. XV + 270. $39.00.

Michael Leifer, Indonesia's Foreign Policy. George Allen & Unwin, London, 1983, pp. xvii + 198. $39.95.

Grant Evans, The Yellow Rainmakers. New Left Books/Verso, London, 1983, pp. 202. $33.50 (cloth) $10.50 (paper).

Stewart Firth, New Guinea Under the Germans. Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 1982, pp. xiii + 216. $25.00.

R.J. May (ed.), Micronationalist Movements in Papua New Guinea. Political and Social Change Monograph No. 1, Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, 1982, pp. xi. + 486 $9.50.

Politics in Melanesia. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1982, pp. xxi + 170. $4.00

Foreign Forces in Pacific Politics. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1983, pp. xv + 325, $6.00.

Mike Moore, A Pacific Parliament. Asia Pacific Books, Wellington and the Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1982, pp. 86. No price given.

Australia and the South Pacific. Conference Papers and Reports. Centre for Continuing Education, Australian National University, Canberra, 1983, pp. 157. $8.00.

Alan R. Taylor, The Arab Balance of Power, Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, 1982, pp. xii + 165. $US22.00 (cloth) $US11.95 (paper).

Tareq Y. Ismael, Iraq and Iran: Roots of Conflict. Syracuse University Pess. Syracuse. 1982, pp xii + 226. $US24.00 (cloth) $US12.95 (paper).

Peter Gubser, Jordan: Crossroads of Middle Eastern Events. Croom Helm, London and Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1983, pp. xi+ 139. £13.50.

Ibrahim Ibrahim (ed.), Arab Resources: The Transformation of a Society. Croom Helm, London, 1983, pp. 304. $24.25.

David Goldsworthy, The International Politics of the Namibian Dispute, Discussion Paper No. 3, 1982, pp. 41

Jock McCulloch, South Africa's Invasion of Angola: Many Reasons Why. Current Issues Brief No. 7, 1981, pp. 10 both published by the Legislative Research Service, Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra.     

Village and community in early colonial New England

The long-standing correlation between community function and nucleated settlement form in early colonial New England is mistaken. Puritan communities were established, but new communities—often called villages in colonial records—were developed and survived quite well regardless of settlement form. As in England at the time, village meant community and community was a social web. Village status in New England provided a community with land and thus enabled the community to undertake settlement. But the social web that comprised community did not require nucleated settlement, and the dispersed settlement form that many colonists had known in England dominated the village landscape of early colonial New England.