Port Royal, Jamaica: The archaeological problems and potential

In September 1968, one of the authors (P. Mayes), having been appointed Head of Mission by the British Ministry of Overseas Development to act as advisor to the Jamaica National Trust Commission, made recommendations which formed the basis for the establishment of the Port Royal Project. The Project is concerned with the excavation, conservation and presentation of 17th century Port Royal, which was founded in 1655 and destroyed by an earthquake in 1692 (see Fig. 1). For the purposes of archaeology the area was divided into three: the Archaeological-Historical Reserve, encompassing the protected underwater area and lands currently occupied by government facilities at the west end of Port Royal; the area in the centre of Port Royal which is protected archaeologically by modern housing and the area at the east end of Port Royal in which it was proposed that commercial expansion should be allowed on land held on lease from the Jamaican government. Work began early in 1969 in a section of this last area, which was threatened, at that time, by the construction of an hotel. This area was part of the shoal water section of sunken Port Royal (see below and Fig. 2). Since that date excavation headquarters and conservation laboratories have been established in the old naval hospital and the construction of a major museum, the first phase of the presentation programme, has begun.     

CORN HYBRID SELECTION AND CLIMATIC VARIABILITY: GAMBLING WITH NATURE?

Farmer adaptation to climatic variability is explored via an analysis of corn hybrid selection in southern Ontario. Corn hybrid varieties are available for a wide range of conditions, including accumulated heat, measured as Corn Heat Units (chus). Hybrids with higher chu ratings generally have higher yields, so long as there is sufficient heat for them to mature. Farmers choose their hybrid varieties prior to the growing season, in the face of uncertainty about the chus that will accumulate at their location. Farmers in the sample counties showed a consistent tendency to adjust their hybrid selection on the basis of the previous year's growing conditions. After the high chu year of 1991, farmers chose significantly more longer-maturing and potentially higher-yielding, but riskier varieties. After the lower chu years of 1992 and 1993, farmers' hybrid selections became markedly more conservative. L'étude de I'adaptation des fermiers aux changements climatiques se fait par une analyse de /'hybridation du maïs au sud de l'Ontario. Les variétés de maïs hybrides conviennent à différentes conditions climatiques in-cluant la chaleur accumulée, mesurée en Unitées de Chaleur de Maïs (ucms). Les hybrides ayant une valeur ucm plus élevée donnent généralement un rendement plus élevéà condition qu'ils bénéficient d'assez de chaleur pour mûrir. Les fermiers des comtés sélectionnés ont démontré une tendance persistante à baser leurs sélections d'hybrides en fonction des conditions de crois-sance de I'année précédente. Depuis 1991, année ayant connu un taux élevé d'UCM, les fermiers ont opté pour un type d'hybride à croissance prolongée, au potentiel de rendement plus élevé mats également plus risqué. Les années 1992 et 1993 ayant connu un niveau ucm moins élevé, les fermiers ont alors sélectionné des hybrides plus traditionnels.     

Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.