Impacts of Multiple-Period Lags in Dynamic Logit Models

This paper will provide an introduction to a new field of research, viz. the sensitivity of the solution trajectory of a dynamic logit model (belonging to the class of discrete choice models) in the light of a multiperiod lag structure. It is well known from recent advances in the area of chaos and turbulence theory that the stability of a dynamic system is critically dependent on various factors, such as threshold values of parameters, initial conditions, and also the lag structure. This paper aims to identify the consequences of different lag structures in dynamic logit models (including also dynamic spatial interaction models). Various simulation experiments will be used to show that the onset of instability of the solution trajectory tends to decrease as the number of time lags increases (depending also on the growth rate of the system).     

TESTING THE SPATIAL SCALE AND THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN REGIONAL MODELS (A CONTRIBUTION TO SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS)*

This article addresses the problem of specification uncertainty in modeling spatial economic theories in stochastic form. It is ascertained that the traditional approach to spatial econometric modeling does not adequately deal with the type and extent of specification uncertainty commonly encountered in spatial economic analyses. Two alternative spatial econometric modeling procedures proposed in the literature are reviewed and shown to be suitable for analyzing systematically two sources of specification uncertainty, viz., the level of aggregation and the spatio-temporal dynamic structure in multiregional econometric models. The usefulness of one of these specification procedures is illustrated by the construction of a simple multiregional model for The Netherlands.     

LITERATURE REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article:
A. Comments
B. Book Notes
Abney, Glenn and Thomas P Lauth The Politics of State and City Administration
Adams, William J and Christran Stoffaes, (eds) French Industrial Policy
Binkin, Martin, Military Technology and Defense Manpower
Elazar, aniel J Cities of the Prairie Revisited The Closing of the Metropolitan Frontier
Ginsberg, Benjamin The Captive Public How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power
Heath, Robert L and Richard Alan Nelson Issues Management Corporate Public Policymaking in an Information Society
Hunt, Morton Profiles of Social Research The Scientific Study of Human Interactions
Kaplan, Marshall and Peggy Cuciti (eds) The Great Society and itsLegacy wenty Years of U S Social Policy
Katz, Michael B In the Shadow of the Poorhouse A Social History of Welfare in America
Katzmann, Robert A. Institutional Disability The Sage of Transporation Policy for the Disabled
Liroff, Richard A Reformaing Air Pollution Regulation The Toil Trouble of EPA's Bubble
Lowi, Theodore J The Personal President Power Invested Promise Unflfilled
Mead, Walter J, Asbjorn Moseidjord, Dennis D Muraoka, and Philip E Sorenson Offshore Lands. Oil and Gas Leasing and Conservation on th Outer Continental Shelf
Muskie, Edmund, Kenneth Rush, and Kenneth W Thompson The President, the Congress and Foreign Policy
Openshaw, Stan Nuclear Power. Siting and Safety
Peters, B Guy American Public Policy Promise and Performance
Rosentraub, Mark S, (ed) Urban Policy Problems Federal Policy and Institutional Change
Story, Dale Industry, the State, and Public Policy in Mexico
Taylor, Ralph B, (ed) Urban Neighborhoods Research and Policy
Wesson, Robert and Heraldo Munoz, (eds) Latin American Views of U S Policy
Winston, Brian isunderstanding Media
Zurcher, Louis A, Milton L Boykin, and Hardy L Merritt Citizen Sailors in a Changing Society Policy Issues for Manning the United StatesNaval Reserve     

LITERATURE REVIEWS

A. Comments
B. Book Review Essay
Philip E Converse and Roy Pierce Political Representation France (Cambridge. MA and London Harvard University Press. 1986 ). 996 pp
Daniel Gaxie. ed, Explication du Vote (Paris Presses de la Fondation Nationale des Sciences Poiitlques. 1985 ). 450 pp
Jack Hayward. The State and the Market Economy industrial Patnotism and Economic lntervention in France (New York New York University Press, 1985 ). 267 pp
Howard Machin and Vincent Wright. eds, Economrc Policy-Making Under the Mitrerrand Presidency, 1981–1984 (New York St Martin's Press, 1985 ). 293 pp
C. Book Notes
Beldon, Joseph N Dirt Rich .
Brown, William P and Don F Hadwiger (eds) World Food Policies Toward Agricultural Interdependence
Weiss, Thomas G Multilateral Development Diplomacy in UNCTAD
Schultze, Charles L Other Times. Other Places Macroeconomic Lessons Form US and European History
Collingridge, David and Colin Reeve Science Speaks to Power The Role of Experts in Policymaking
Feller, Irwin Universities and State Governments A Study in Policy Analysis
Cawson, Alan Corporatism and Political Theory
Lefort, Claude The Political Forms of Modern Society Bureaucracy, Democracy, Totalitarianism
Lehne, Richard Casino Policy
Moorhouse, John C Electric Power Deregulation and the Public Interest
Wright, James D and Peter H Rossi Armed and Considered Dangerous A Survey of Felons and their Firearms
Kluegel, James R Beliefs About Inequality America's Views of What is and What Ought to Be
Raskin, Marcus G The Common Good Its Politics, Policies, and Philosophy
Schorr, Alvin L Common Decency Domestic Policies After Reagan
Davies, David G United States Tax and Tax Policy
Lee, Dwight R (ed) Taxation and the Deficit Economy Fiscal Policy and Capital Formation in the United States
Teplitz, Paul V and Stephen H Brooks Alternative Tax Proposals How the Numbers Add Up