Impacts of Multiple-Period Lags in Dynamic Logit Models

This paper will provide an introduction to a new field of research, viz. the sensitivity of the solution trajectory of a dynamic logit model (belonging to the class of discrete choice models) in the light of a multiperiod lag structure. It is well known from recent advances in the area of chaos and turbulence theory that the stability of a dynamic system is critically dependent on various factors, such as threshold values of parameters, initial conditions, and also the lag structure. This paper aims to identify the consequences of different lag structures in dynamic logit models (including also dynamic spatial interaction models). Various simulation experiments will be used to show that the onset of instability of the solution trajectory tends to decrease as the number of time lags increases (depending also on the growth rate of the system).     

TESTING THE SPATIAL SCALE AND THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN REGIONAL MODELS (A CONTRIBUTION TO SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS)*

This article addresses the problem of specification uncertainty in modeling spatial economic theories in stochastic form. It is ascertained that the traditional approach to spatial econometric modeling does not adequately deal with the type and extent of specification uncertainty commonly encountered in spatial economic analyses. Two alternative spatial econometric modeling procedures proposed in the literature are reviewed and shown to be suitable for analyzing systematically two sources of specification uncertainty, viz., the level of aggregation and the spatio-temporal dynamic structure in multiregional econometric models. The usefulness of one of these specification procedures is illustrated by the construction of a simple multiregional model for The Netherlands.