Impacts of Multiple-Period Lags in Dynamic Logit Models

This paper will provide an introduction to a new field of research, viz. the sensitivity of the solution trajectory of a dynamic logit model (belonging to the class of discrete choice models) in the light of a multiperiod lag structure. It is well known from recent advances in the area of chaos and turbulence theory that the stability of a dynamic system is critically dependent on various factors, such as threshold values of parameters, initial conditions, and also the lag structure. This paper aims to identify the consequences of different lag structures in dynamic logit models (including also dynamic spatial interaction models). Various simulation experiments will be used to show that the onset of instability of the solution trajectory tends to decrease as the number of time lags increases (depending also on the growth rate of the system).     

向二氯化碳宣战——化学奇案：失踪的碳元素

一切都显示在荧幕上,森林正在呼吸。美国马萨诸塞州某处林地中,夏末的阳光穿透翠绿的林冠洒落下来。哈佛大学的大气科学家史蒂芬．沃夫西用各种仪器正监测着这片森林的生命机能。鲜红的数字在计量仪上闪动,这些读数显示出小屋附近树顶处的二氧化碳浓度。这些数字比全球平均值低了10ppm（百万分之一）：大约是360ppm,这都是这些树的功劳。沐浴在阳光下的树木吸入二氧化碳,将之转变成叶子和木材。在吸收养分的同时,这片长有松树、栎树和槭树的树林同时也将人类引起的全球性巨变抵消了一小部分。     

Positive and Negative Externalities in Innovation,Trade, and Regional Economic Growth

We build on Grossman and Helpman (1991), Rivera‐Batiz and Romer (1991), Acemoglu (2009, pp. 678–80), and Batabyal and Nijkamp (2013b) and analyze the interactions between positive and negative externalities in innovation and trade for economic growth in a region when this region is part of an aggregate economy consisting of two regions. In both regions, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences; there is human capital use, and there are three kinds of manufacturing activities involving the production of blueprints for inputs or machines, the inputs or machines themselves, and a single final good for consumption. We study two cases. In the first case, although no growth occurs in the human capital stock, innovative activities give rise to positive externalities or knowledge spillovers in two ways. In this setting, we, study whether and under what circumstances opening a region to trade results in an increase in this region's equilibrium growth rate. In the second case, although growth occurs in the human capital stock, innovation experiences negative externalities. In this scenario, we show that opening a region to trade leads to more innovation but to no change in its long‐run growth rate. Los autores se basan en el trabajo de Grossman y Helpman (1991), Rivera‐Batiz y Romer (1991), Acemoglu (2009, pp 678‐80), y Batabyal y Nijkamp (2013B), para analizar las interacciones entre las externalidades positivas y negativas en la innovación y comercio para el crecimiento económico en una región, en los casos en los que dicha región es parte de una economía global que consiste en dos regiones. En estas dos regiones hipotéticas a) los consumidores tienen aversión constante al riesgo relativo (CRRA); b) se hace uso del capital humano; y, c) se llevan a cabo tres tipos de actividades manufactureras: la elaboración de planes o plantillas de producción, la producción de insumos y maquinaria, y la producción de un único bien de consumo final. El presente estudio analiza dos casos. En el primer caso, aunque no hay crecimiento en el stock de capital humano, las actividades de innovación generan externalidades positivas o derrames (spillovers) de conocimiento de dos tipos. En este contexto, se estudia si, y bajo qué circunstancias la apertura de una región al comercio resulta en un aumento en la tasa de crecimiento de equilibrio de la región. En el segundo caso, hay crecimiento en el stock de capital humano, pero la innovación experimenta externalidades negativas. En este escenario, se muestra que la apertura al comercio de una región conduce a una mayor innovación pero sin ningún cambio en la tasa de crecimiento a largo plazo. 本文在Grossman and Helpman (1991)、Rivera‐Batiz and Romer (1991)、 Acemoglu (2009,,pp. 678–80)和Batabyal and Nijkamp (2013b)等研究基础上,分析了当某一区域与另一区域构成经济聚合体时,该区域经济增长中创新与贸易的外部正负效应的相互影响。在两区域中,消费者均具有不变的相对风险规避(CRRA)参数设定,然后考虑人力资本利用和三种类别的制造活动的预期产量,即投入或机器、原料或机器本身、可消费的单一制成品。我们分析了两种不同的场景。在第一种场景中,尽管人力资本存量并未增长,创新活动也通过正外部性或知识溢出两种方式得到了增长。在该设定下,我们研究了区域是否或者在何种情况下开放贸易会提高地区的均衡增长率。在第二种场景中,尽管人力资本存量增长而创新部分却经历着负外部效应的影响。研究显示,一个地区贸易开放将导致更多创新活动的发生,但并未影响到长期的增长率。     

Identification of Employment Concentration Areas

This article presents a method to identify “Absolute and Relative Employment Concentration (AREC) areas” for a particular industry. Two novel characteristics of the method are that it simultaneously analyses AREC, and that it combines spatial concentration per area with the spatial concentration in neighbouring areas. The method is easy to understand and apply. It is developed to assist regional policy makers and corporate decision-makers with their investment decisions related to new infrastructure or plants. The identification of concentration areas also allows for analysing the performance of these areas in relation to characteristics such as infrastructure availability and the housing and labour market. This can yield new academic insights that are relevant for regional planners. An application of the newly developed method to five industries in a Dutch province subdivided into 502 areas illustrates the value of the method in comparison to other methods.     

A Spanish Man‐o‐War in New Zealand? The 1864 wreck of Grafton and its lessons for pre‐Cook shipwreck claims

This paper considers the 1864 wreck of Grafton in the Auckland Islands, and its implications for wreck analysis and pre‐Cook exploration claims. The captain of Grafton, Thomas Musgrave, stated that the schooner was built from the wreck of a Spanish man‐o‐war, and archaeological analysis of the wreck found that the timbers are a tropical South American species, and had possibly been reused. The implications of this are clear; it is possible that timbers that originated in pre‐Cook (1769) ships lie in New Zealand, but without a full understanding of the historical and archaeological context of any such timbers, including their reuse in later ships, it is not possible to claim proof of pre‐Cook European exploration of New Zealand.     

FROM NIETZSCHE'S PHILOSOPHY OF HISTORY TO KANT'S—AND BACK

Reflecting on Anthony Jensen's Nietzsche's Philosophy of History, this essay describes Jensen's account of the three‐stage development of Nietzsche's historiographical practices and metahistorical positions: from his early philological writings, through The Birth of Tragedy, and into the mature philosophy of history that Jensen uncovers in Toward the Genealogy of Morality and Ecce Homo, which, so Jensen argues, consists in ontological realism combined with representational anti‐realism. While Jensen notes the importance of a like‐minded readership for the success of Nietzsche's historiographical projects, the essay asks whether Nietzsche did in fact have such a readership and further emphasizes that the Genealogy and Ecce Homo are structured in such a way that they seek to create one. A similar structure is identified in Kant's “Idea for a Universal History from a Cosmopolitan Perspective.” The essay concludes by reflecting on the significance of this similarity in light of the doctrines of eternal recurrence that are expressed in both Nietzsche's late writings and Kant's youthful cosmology.