The Barony and the Churches of Late Nineteenth Century Glasgow

The Barony Parish Church was one of the most important churches in nineteenth century Scotland partly due to its history, size, and location at the heart of the "second city" of the Empire and its Minister, Norman MacLeod. Its congregation represented every tier of Glasgow society in terms of social class and gender and as such, throws light on the more general debates on religion and society in nineteenth century Britain. When compared with other churches and denominations in Glasgow, it builds a more general picture of church and people in the city. The picture drawn reveals a complex pattern of adherence varying between individuals and families. An over emphasis on secular reasons for church membership ignores the important role of faith in determining patterns of adherence. Family letters, diaries, and journals often reveal a deep-seated faith and critical reflections on the preaching of the Word.     

The Russian social contract and regime legitimacy

The social contract in Soviet and post‐Soviet Russia has concerned not classical political rights but socio‐economic issues. Loyalty is accorded to the powers‐that‐be partly from fear of repression, but also in return for new opportunities of advancement—whether resulting from social upheaval or from educational expansion—and for modest improvements in living standards. The Soviet era ended when such benefits could no longer be delivered, on account of lower oil prices, arms‐race burdens and lagging productivity and innovation. After the turmoil of the 1990s, the contract was re‐established under Putin in the early 2000s. Public opinion accepts relatively authoritarian rule if economic stability appears guaranteed in return. Moreover, world events from 2008 onwards have dampened economic expectations. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the present contract is doubtful, with economic modernization likely to prove elusive in the absence of effective democratic institutions.     

International development in transition

International development is in a period of transition. While the outcome of this is still unclear, this article argues that there are at least four areas in which the project of international development is changing. First, there is a debate, especially within the World Bank, about development strategy and how we think about development, particularly in terms of the balance between states and markets. This is evident in the debate over state failure and the new structural economics. Second, there is increasing evidence of a shift in lending, away from projects of ‘small’ human development, perhaps best encapsulated by the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, towards more transformative ‘big’ development projects such as infrastructure. Third, ‘non‐traditional’ aid donors and new forms of private philanthropy are playing a more significant role in development financing and this, in turn, offers developing countries a new range of choices about what kinds of development assistance they receive. Fourth, aid relations are changing as a result of the renewed agency of developing states, particularly in sub‐Saharan Africa, and shifts towards increased South–South cooperation are growing as evidenced by increased funding from regional development banks and increased trade flows. The article reviews these changes and suggests a series of questions and challenges that arise from them for analysts of international development, developing countries and traditional aid donors.     

The United Nations: past and present

The UN is approaching its seventieth birthday in 2015. Kofi Annan, its seventh secretary general, and the only incumbent not to have come from a national government, has written the most honest and insightful memoir of any occupant of the thirty‐eighth floor, Interventions. Despite terrible setbacks in Bosnia and Rwanda, the United Nations remains the most representative and successful international organization in history. As Mark Mazower points out in his Governing the world, an acutely penetrating history of international governance, the successes of the UN are more than the founders of the ill‐fated League of Nations could have dreamt of. Mazower's tour de force combines a history of the intellectual ideas of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and their eventual realization in the League of Nations and the UN. While his conclusions question whether faith in international institutions has been lost, the reality of universal membership of the UN and establishment of an International Criminal Court might suggest otherwise.     

ANALYSIS and PREDICTION OF ABNORMALLY COLD SPELLS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN

The risk of departures of daily minimum temperatures at some prescribed level below the daily average can be estimated by the use of a combined deterministic/stochastic model. From a regional perspective the coefficients and parameters of the model are point observations containing information pertaining to both regional trends and local environmental conditions. Trend surface analyses, using latitude, longitude, and elevation, provide a means of identifying the relative importance of regional and local effects on cold spell risks. The derived surfaces indicate that the deterministic components filter out the regional characteristics and that the parameters of the stochastic model are more sensitive to local changes in elevation. The efficacy of the technique is illustrated by the prediction of cold spell risks at six test sites. Le risque d'écarts des températures journalières mini-males par rapport à un niveau prédéterminé se situant en-dessous de la moyenne journalière peut se mesurer au moyen d'un modèle à la fois déterministe et stochas-tique. Au plan régional, les coefficients et les paramètres du modèle sont des observ ations ponctuelles qui renfer-ment des informations se rapportant à la fois à des tendances régionales et à des conditions locales de I'envi-ronnement. Les analyses de tendance en surface, au moyen de latitude, longitude et altitude, constitutent une façon d'identifier l'importance relative des effets ré-gionaux et locaux sur les risques de vagues de froid. Les surfaces qui en dérivent révèlent que les composantes déterministes font ressortir les particolarités régionales et que les paramètres du modèle stochastique sont davan-tage sensibles aux changements locaux d'élévation. Des prévisions du risque de vague de froid, testées en six endroits, montrent I'efficacité de la technique.     

The chronology and regional context of late prehistoric incised arrowheads in southeastern Arabia

The typology, distribution and chronology of incised arrowheads is examined. A lower chronology than has hitherto been suggested for their occurrence is then argued. Evidence from other areas is used to illustrate the point that the examples from southeastern Arabia are unique and are chronologically unrelated to other ancient west Asian examples.