…?… evidence…?…

Questions of Evidence: Proof, Practice, and Persuasion across the Disciplines. Edited by James Chandler, Arnold I. Davidson, and Harry Harootunian (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994) 518pp. $45.00 cloth $19.95 paper.

The Creation of Scientific Effects: Heinrich Hertz and Electric Waves. By Jed Z. Buchwald (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994) 428pp. $32.95 paper $75.00 cloth.     

WHITE LUMPS IN FIFTH- TO SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY AD MORTARS FROM NORTHERN ITALY

Ancient mortars from northern Italy, dating from the fifth to the seventeenth century AD, were examined in order to formulate an hypothesis regarding the origin of the white lumps often observed in these mortars and in other samples of the same geographical provenance. Various characterization techniques were employed, including scanning electron microscopy, X-ray powder diffraction and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and micro-FTIR spectroscopy.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.