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The foreign policy crises that the USA has confronted under the administration of President Barack Obama have generated profound uncertainty about whether the USA can maintain what has been its consistent grand strategy since the end of the Cold War: primacy. The authors argue, drawing on a neoclassical realist framework, that this uncertainty has been driven not so much by fundamental changes in the international system itself, but rather by how such changes have been interpreted by the Obama administration and its critics. US grand strategy is now caught between approaches best described as the ‘decline management’ of the Obama administration and the ‘decline denial’ of president Donald Trump, which reflects the fracturing of the domestic ‘political support system’ that has underpinned primacy since the end of the Cold War. 相似文献
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Michael Clarke 《International affairs》2000,76(4):725-740
The French government is reassessing the whole basis on which it trains and equips its diplomats for their calling, driven by a growing perception that French diplomacy has not been performing well. The 'Heisbourg Report' on the state of French diplomacy pulled no punches and accused French diplomats of being closed to international influences, untrained for modern diplomacy and stifled by a state-centrist view of modern international relations. On the face of it this can all be interpreted as a milestone in an underlying convergence between Francophone and Anglophone approaches to modern diplomacy and security. In very important respects, however, Britain and France are mirror images of each other. What is defined here as mirror imaging can be seen to exist at three different levels which are self-reinforcing, though not in obvious ways: in the pros and cons of each others' policy-making style; in their inextricable fate to develop the European Security and Defence Policy project; and even at the most abstract levels in the predicaments they face in the light of globalization. Seen in this context, it is evident that it is not merely the skills and techniques of French and British policy-makers that need to be re-examined, but rather their way of thinking about their own state and about the nature of the international system around them in an era when globalization is symptomatic of deep structural change. 相似文献
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We explore the simulation of urban growth using complex systems theory and cellular automata (CA). The SLEUTH urban CA model was applied to two different metropolitan areas in Portugal, with the purposes of allowing a comparative analysis, of using the past to understand the dynamics of the regions under study, and of learning how to adapt the model to local characteristics in the simulation of future scenarios. Analysis of the two case studies show the importance of SLEUTH's self-modification rules in creating emergent urban forms. This behavior can help build an understanding of urban social systems through this class of CA. 相似文献
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In spite of considerable period propaganda to the otherwise, the average member of the Canadian Expeditionary Force was far from a northern superman. Some, in fact, were quite the opposite. A close analysis of enlistment records indicates that majority of Canada’s would-be warriors not only were — as one might expect — of average height and build, but also that many suffered from a wide variety of health concerns ranging from poor eyesight and dentition through to serious musculoskeletal, neurological, and psychiatric disorders. Moreover, evidence suggests that many recruits were poorly nourished. Indeed, despite the very real horrors and dangers that the Great War presented, the enlistment and discharge weights of CEF members suggests that joining the military was actually good for many Canadian males. This analysis is based on summary statistical examination of the medical and attestation papers of over 20,000 servicemen and a close textual analysis of the full file for a smaller number of men. 相似文献