Predictors of Out-of-Home Placement in a Family Preservation Program: Are Welfare Recipients Particularly Vulnerable?

Participants in a statewide family preservation program were classified on the basis of income level and enrollment in public assistance. These variables, along with other economic, parent, and child risk factors, were used to predict the probability of out-of-home placements at the close of this intervention program. Results revealed that neither low income nor receiving public assistance was predictive of having a child removed from the home. Higher levels of child-centered risk and parent-centered risk were the only consistent predictors of placement outcomes. Additional analyses revealed that family characteristics (e.g., history of psychiatric care, prior child placements, and involvement with the legal system) also were typical of families experiencing out-of-home placements. This study challenges the stereotype of low-income or welfare families being at greater risk of having a child removed from their home. Findings are discussed in the context of recent welfare reform initiatives and implications for future family policy research.     

ELECTRON SPIN RESONANCE THERMOMETRY APPLIED TO QUARTZITE COBBLES FROM VERGELEGEN SLAVE LODGE,SOMERSET WEST,SOUTH AFRICA

This paper describes the use of electron spin resonance spectroscopy to estimate the degree of heating of quartzite cobbles from hearths on the floor of the archaeological remains of an eighteenth-century Dutch colonial slave lodge. A novel technique based on the comparison of line intensities for the E’and O^-₂ centres in quartz distinguished successfully between cobbles which had been heated to estimated temperatures ranging from 300 °C to 450° C and controls from an adjacent stream bed. This inexpensive and simple technique could be applied to a wide range of archaeological problems involving the thermal history of objects consisting of or containing quartz.     

COINTEGRATION BETWEEN U.S. WHEAT MARKETS

ABSTRACT. Average monthly price data from twelve hinterland markets and the Houston port price for wheat are studied in a cointegration framework using the Engle-Granger "two-step" procedure and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. Out-of-sample forecasts from an error correction model are compared to those from a vector autoregression fit to levels and a univariate autoregression fit to first differences. This comparison suggests that modeling these (cointegrated) data as a levels vector autoregression, rather than as an error-correction process, results in significantly higher error bias, but lower error variance, at long horizons.     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

LAND USE IN THE PRESENCE OF AN ATMOSPHERE EXTERNALITY,WITH AND WITHOUT CORRECTIVE TAXES*

ABSTRACT. Total cleared area in a von Thünen land-use model drives an atmosphere externality which depresses agricultural productivity uniformly throughout the region. Exogenous events that encourage clearance and use of a larger cultivated area (output price or population increase) exacerbate the externality. Imposition of a simple, corrective tax on land rents does not reverse these patterns but does mitigate the increase in the externality and leaves cultivators with higher incomes than they would obtain without the tax. We examine an optimal tax on land rents, designed to maximize the social value of land rents in the region, and an output tax.