Markov Models of Inertia and Dynamism on Two Contiguous Ohio Landscapes

This study examined landcover change during 1940–1988 in two contiguous landscapes of approximately 12,400 hectares in central Ohio, USA: an inertial till plain area and a more dynamic moraine area. Agriculture dominated both landscapes throughout, however, the cover of natural vegetation and urban-suburban development increased over time on the moraine while natural vegetation decreased and agriculture increased on the till plain. Markov process models for landcover change were constructed for three 14–17-year time intervals and for the entire forty-eight-year study period. Probabilities of self-replacement for agricultural lands (0.91–0.97) were higher and those for forests (0.54–0.65) lower than those reported for other landscapes. Predictions of landcover percentages for fifty years in the future were made using Markov process models derived from actual cover changes in 1940–1957, 1971–1988, and 1940–1988. All three models produced similar predictions for the inertial till plain area. In contrast, the three models' predictions differed considerably for the moraine area. Only the 1971–1988 transition matrix was sensitive to increases in urbanization and reforestation which began on the moraine in the 1970s. These results indicate that reliance on lengthy study intervals and net rates of change can obscure spatial and temporal patterns of landcover change that are caused by natural and socioeconomic factors operating on shorter time scales.     

Ancestral pueblo population aggregation and abandonment in the North American Southwest

After over a century of archaeological research in the American Southwest, questions focusing on population aggregation and abandonment continue to preoccupy much of Pueblo archaeology. This article presents a historical overview of the present range of explanatory approaches to these two processes, with a primary focus on population aggregation in those regions occupied by historic and prehistoric Pueblo peoples. We stress the necessarily complementary nature of most of these explanations of residential abandonment and aggregation. Case studies from the northern Southwest illustrate the continuous nature of these processes across time and space. We suggest that additional explanatory potential will be gained by the use of well-defined theoretical units to frame our current approaches. We extend the use of the local community concept as a theoretical unit of organization that, along with explicit archaeological correlates, should help advance our research into population aggregation and abandonment in this and other regions of the world.     

Book Reviews

Ken Booth and Steve Smith (eds), International Relations Theory Today, Cambridge: Polity Press, 1995. xii + 367pp. $39.95 (paper).

Christine Sylvester, Feminist Theory and International Relations in a Postmodern Era. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. xi + 265pp. $47.50 (paper).

Stephanie Lawson (ed.), The New Agenda for Global Security: Cooperating for Peace and Beyond. St. Leonards: Allen & Unwin/Department of International Relations, RSPAS, Australian National University, 1995. xi + 217pp. $24.95.

Anne O. Krueger, Economic Policies at Cross‐Purposes: The United States and Developing Countries. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1993. xii + 253pp. $US36.95 (cloth).

Robert L. Paarlberg, Leadership Abroad Begins at Home: U.S. Foreign Economic Policy After the Cold War. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995. xxv + 115pp. $US28.95 (cloth); $US10.95 (paper).

Tony Brenton, The Greening of Machiavelli: The Evolution of International Environmental Politics. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs/Earthscan, 1994. xvii + 282pp. $UK14.95 (paper).

John Charmley, Churchill's Grand Alliance: The Anglo‐American Special Relationship, 1940–1957. London: Hodder & Stoughton, 1995. xv + 427pp. $55.00 (cloth).

Victor A. Kremenyuk, Conflicts In and Around Russia. Nation‐Building in Difficult Times. Westport: Greenwood Press, 1994. xiv + 159pp. $US49.95 (cloth).

Alexander Johnston, Sipho Shezi and Gavin Bradshaw (eds), Constitution‐making in the New South Africa. London and New York: Leicester University Press, 1993. viii + 272pp. $UK 39.50.

Ramesh Thakur, The Politics and Economics of India's Foreign Policy. London: Hurst and Company; New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994. xi + 306pp. No price given.

Francis Seow, To Catch a Tartar: A Dissident in Lee Kuan Yew's Prison (with a foreword by C.V. Devan Nair). Yale Southeast Asia Studies Monograph 42, New Haven: Yale Centre for International and Area Studies, 1994. xxxiii + 293pp. $50.00 (paper).

Brij Lal, Robert Kiste and Kerry Howe (eds), The Tides of History: The Pacific Islands in the 20th Century. St Leonards: Allen & Unwin, 1994. xviii + 475pp. $34.95 (paper).

LaMond Tullis, Unintended Consequences—Illegal Drugs and Drug Policies in Nine Countries. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995. ix + 229pp. $US42.00 (cloth).

The United Nations and Cambodia 1991–1995, The United Nations Blue Books Series, Vol. II. New York: Department of Public Information, United Nations, 1995. 352pp. $US29.95 (paper).

‘Atu Emberson‐Bain (ed.), Sustainable Development or Malignant Growth? Perspectives of Pacific Island Women. Suva, Fiji: Marama Publications, 1994. 290pp. No price given.

Payam Akhavan and Robert Howse (eds), Yugoslavia, the Former and Future: Reflections by Scholars front the Region. Washington, DC and Geneva: The Brookings Institution and The United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 1995. xxviii + 188pp. $US32.95 (cloth) $US 12.95 (paper).

David Camroux, ‘Looking East’ . . . and Inwards: Internal Factors in Malaysian Foreign Relations during the Mahathir Era 1981–1994. Australia‐Asia Papers No. 72. Griffith University: Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, 1994. iii + 62pp. $10.00.     

Book reviews—Comptes rendus

Early Europe—L'Europe antique

Maurice SARTRE, L'Asie Mineure et l'Anatolie d'Alexandre à Dioclétien (IVe siècle av. JC—IIIe siècle op. JC), Annand Colin, Collection U, Paris, 1995.

Peter KINGSLEY, Ancient Philosophy, Mystery and Magic Empedocles and Pythagorean tradition, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1995, ix + 422 p., ISBN 0–19–814988–3.

Central and eastern Europe—L'Europe centrale et orientate

Catharina LIS, Jan LUCASSEN & Hugo SOLY eds, Before the Unions: wage earners and collective action in Europe 1300–1850, Cambridge University Press, International Review of History Supplements, Cambridge, 1994,194 p., ISBN 0–521–47954–1.

M.S. ANDERSON, The War of the Austrian Succession, 1740–1748, Longman, London & New York, 1995, xi + 248 p., ISBN 0–582–05951–8.

C.W. INGRAO, ed., State and Society in Early Modern Austria, Purdue University Press, West Lafayette, Indiana, 1994, xvi + 339 p., ISBN 1–55753–047–5.

P.W. SCHROEDER, The Transformation of European Politics, 1763–1848, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1994, xxii + 894 p,. ISBN 0–19–822119–3.

David E. BARCLAY, Frederick William IV and the Prussian Monarchy 1840–1861, Clarendon Press, Oxford 1995, 335 p., ISBN 0–19–820430–2 (German ed., Anarchie und guter Wille. Friedrich Wilhelm IV. und die preussische Monarchic, trartsl. by Marion Müller, Siedler Verlag, Berlin 1995, 535 p., ISBN 3–88680–463–1).

Jörg BABEROWSKI, Autokratie und Justiz. Zum Verhältnis von Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Rückständigkeit im ausgehenden Zarenreieh 1864–1914, Vittorio Klostermann, Frankfurt/M. (Veröffentlichungen des Max‐Planck‐Instituts für Europälsche Rechtsgeschichte, Ius Commune. Sonderhefte, Srudien zur Europäischen Rechtsgeschichte 78), 1996, xi + 845 p., ISBN 3465028325.

La vision de Ian Kershaw sur le pouvoir d'Hitler sur les Allemands. Deux ouvrages novateurs sur le nazisme traduits en français

Ian KERSHAW, L‘opinion allemande sous le nazisme: Bavière 1933–1945, CNRS‐Editions, collection “Histoire du XXe siècle”, Paris, 1995, 160 p.

Ian KERSHAW, Hitler: essai sur le charisme en politique, traduit de l'anglais par Jacqueline Carnaux, Gallimard, collection “NRF essais”, Paris, 1995, 240 p.

The idea of ‘Mitteleuropa’

Joseph ROTHSCHILD, Return to Diversity: a political history of East Central Europe since World War II, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, Oxford & New York, 1993, 299 p., ISBN 0–19–507382–7.

Peter STIRK, ed., Mitteleuropa. History and prospects, Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, 1994, 176 p., ISBN 0–7486–0449–9.

Europe since 1945—L ‘Europe depute 1945

Geoffrey BEST, Law and War since 1945, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1994, xiv + 434 p., ISBN 0198219911.

Anne‐Marie DURANTON‐CRABOL, L'Europe de l'extrême droite de 1945 à nos jours, Editions Complexe, Paris, 1991. 222 p.

Themes in cultural history—Etudes d'histoire culturelle

Mario MIEGGE, Il sogno del re di Babilonia, Feltrinelli, Milan, 1995, 210 p., ISBN 88–07–10178‐S.

Reba N. SOFTER, Discipline and Power: the university, history, and the making of an English elite, 1870–1930, Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1994, viii + 308 p., ISBN 0–8047–2383–4.

Robert WOHL, A Passion for Wings: aviation and the western imagination, 1908–1918, Yale University Press, New Haven & London, 1994, vii + 320 p., ISBN 0300057784.     

A Minimax Method for Finding the k Best “Differentiated” Paths

In real-world applications, the k-shortest-paths between a pair of nodes on a network will often be slight variations of one another. This could be a problem for many path-based models, particularly those on capacitated networks where different routing alternatives are needed that are less likely to encounter the same capacity constraints. This paper develops a method to solve for k differentiated paths that are relatively short and yet relatively different from one another, but not necessarily disjoint. Our method utilizes the sum of a path's distance plus some fraction of its shared distance with each other path. A minimax algorithm is used to select the path whose largest sum of length, plus shared length vis-à-vis each previously selected path, is as small as possible. We present computational results for the Chinese railway system, comparing the paths generated by a standard k-shortest-path algorithm with those from our new model.     

Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

Richard Lionheart: bad king, bad crusader?

This paper analyzes the impact of King Richard Lionheart of England during his tenure as leader of the Third Crusade. It examines crusade policy and the significance of Richard's decisions to deviate from it. The lack of control which both the Church and normative crusading precedents had over him becomes apparent. Richard's failure to take Jerusalem leads to the conclusion that his self-centred, puerile interests in personal adventures destroyed the chance for success of the Third Crusade, and thus prolonged warfare. Most wars have some sort of peace as the ultimate goal. The Third Crusade is no exception, but Richard subverted the goal of peace by turning away from a siege of Jerusalem and toward various other adventures, for example, attacks on Egyptian holdings, border skirmishes, the conquest of Cyprus from the Byzantines. Still, the Lionheart's legend persists from his day to our own to extol chivalrous virtues and courageous action. This paper presents the other side of the coin in the hope of approaching a more balanced, accurate portrayal of Richard's crusade leadership and of the ends of crusade ideology which he undermined.