Solution Strategies for Three Problems in Empirical Fragility Curve Derivation Using the Maximum Likelihood Method

Solution strategies are presented to address three potential problems in the empirical derivation of fragility functions from empirical data using the maximum likelihood method. The first strategy addresses the case of fragility curves that cross, the second strategy incorporates demand uncertainty in fragility derivation from post-earthquake reconnaissance data, and the third strategy provides a framework for the resolution of conflict between empirical data and expert opinions. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed solution strategies are discussed and their use is demonstrated by way of suitable illustrative examples.     

Revisiting Bula Matari and the Congo Crisis: Successes and Anxieties in Belgium’s Late Colonial State

It is the era of decolonisation in central Africa: angry mobs in the streets; authorities struggling to contain agitation by communists and other subversives; reports of Africans strangled to death or dragged behind cars by European settlers; whites arming themselves. One might presume these scenes of disorder and abuse took place during the Congo crisis from 1960 to 1965, when events appeared to spin out of control in central Africa. In fact, they occurred during the years after the Second World War, when Belgians seemed to have affairs well in hand in their central African colony. The Congo crisis is almost always viewed in sharp contrast to the peaceful era that preceded it—as if the lifting of Belgian rule unleashed chaos—and the relative stability post-1965 that came with the Mobutu dictatorship. There is broad agreement that Congo’s independence was a fiasco, with the former colonial ruler, Belgium, largely to blame. This essay argues that the Belgian authorities were not as in control as has been believed. Historians have known for years now that things were not as rosy as they might have seemed at the time, in the years leading up to independence in 1960, but recently available archival documents reveal the situation was even more fluid than previously thought. Bula Matari was not as far-reaching as believed, and many controls signalled a nervousness inherent in the late colonial state more than they did its strength. Reports by administrators reveal a lack of domination in the 1950s and underlying tensions in the colony, even conflicts. The public impression that Belgians had affairs well in hand is due in part to post-Second World War propaganda depicting an idyllic Congo. Belgians wanted to build support for colonialism, bolster their authority, forestall foreign interference and combat their own anxieties. Images produced persuaded many that the Congo was more peaceful than it was. The shock at independence ought to be attributed less to events unfolding as of June 1960 and more to the impressions of tranquillity projected by the authorities beforehand.     

‘Not on Your Life’: Cabinet and Liberalisation of the White Australia Policy, 1964–67

The liberalisation of the White Australia policy in the mid-1960s was a seminal event in Australian history. It marked the beginning of the end for the racial conception of society which had defined the federation since the late-nineteenth century. Cabinet’s discussions of the proposed changes during these years demonstrate that most Australian political leaders were not only fundamentally opposed to reform but also unconvinced by arguments emphasising the policy’s administrative inconsistencies, lack of humanitarianism and racially discriminatory features. Nor were they entirely swayed by arguments of diplomatic expediency, which had been advanced by senior Immigration and External Affairs officials since the 1950s. The decline of British race patriotism in the early 1960s weakened the ideological foundations of White Australia and allowed policy-makers to reconsider its foreign policy implications, especially in terms of Australia’s relations with Asia. Although cautious, the reforms of the mid-1960s represented an important break with the policy’s fundamental principles and provided the groundwork for further liberalisation and the formal abolition of White Australia in the 1970s.     

Maritime Aspects of Medieval Siraf,Iran: a pilot project for the investigation of coastal and underwater archaeological remains

Siraf is well‐known archaeologically and historically as an ancient port in the Persian Gulf that prospered during the medieval period. Siraf played a leading role in facilitating maritime and terrestrial trade, connecting long‐distance Indian Ocean and China routes with those in the Gulf region. Despite its history, no previous research has been dedicated to the maritime infrastructure of Siraf. Through the ‘2012 Siraf pilot project’ a preliminary survey of the underwater and shoreline remains of this ancient port city was conducted. The site's location is unique in many respects to trade routes and logistical considerations; however, its maritime infrastructure is difficult to assess in light of the extensive threats to the site.