Latent trajectory models for space‐time analysis: An application in deciphering spatial panel data

This article introduces latent trajectory models (LTMs), an approach often employed in social sciences to handle longitudinal data, to the arena of GIScience, particularly space‐time analysis. Using the space‐time data collected at county level for the whole United States through webpage search on the keyword “climate change,” we show that LTMs, when combined with eigenvector filtering of spatial dependence in data, are very useful in unveiling temporal trends hidden in such data: the webpage‐data derived popularity measure for climate change has been increasing from December 2011 to March 2013, but the increase rate has been slowing down. In addition, LTMs help reveal potential mechanisms behind observed space‐time trajectories through linking the webpage‐data derived popularity measure about climate change to a set of socio‐demographic covariates. Our analysis shows that controlling for population density, greater drought exposure, higher percent of people who are 16 years old or above, and higher household income are positively predictive of the trajectory slopes. Higher percentages of Republicans and number of hot days in summer are negatively related to the trajectory slopes. Implications of these results are examined, concluding with consideration of the potential utility of LTMs in space‐time analysis and more generally in GIScience.     

Coconut Crisis in Kerala? Mainstream Narrative and Alternative Perspectives

India's oilseeds sector, which includes its coconut economy, experienced drastic changes in the wake of agricultural liberalization in the mid‐1990s. A persistent coconut crisis ‘narrative’ emerged after sharp price declines between 2000 and 2002 in which small farmers in the state of Kerala, India's main coconut producer, were identified as victims of the liberalized importation of cheap palm oil. This article describes this crisis narrative based on a literature review of academic and official reports, and challenges its problem analysis by juxtaposing it with information from ethnographic research with local farmers and traders. The research indicates that local labour shortages and increased regional competition also had a strong impact on Kerala's coconut market, production and processing, which varied from region to region. Furthermore, small farmers, with their diversified livelihoods, did not recognize a ‘crisis’ as such. Drawing upon the ‘advocacy coalition framework’, the article also indicates reasons for the emergence and persistence of the coconut crisis narrative and points to complex processes of restructuring social space in the age of globalization.     

Middle Bronze Age Arsenical Copper Alloys in Southern Portugal

In the Iberian Peninsula, the copper metallurgy from the Chalcolithic to the Middle Bronze Age (MBA) was mostly characterized by low arsenic contents. A collection of 53 MBA artefacts from southern Portugal was analysed by micro‐EDXRF, optical microscopy, SEM–EDS and Vickers to investigate the metal composition and manufacture. No technological distinction was found between artefacts from domestic and funerary contexts, which were radiocarbon‐dated to 2000–1500 cal bc . The arsenic contents of almost 100 MBA artefacts from this region, including the above‐mentioned set, have a Gaussian distribution with a high average (3.9 wt% As). Possible explanations are discussed for this distinctive metallurgy at the south‐western end of the Iberian Peninsula.     

Characterization of a Historical Cannonball from the Fortress of San Juan De Ulúa Exposed to a Marine Environment

Metallurgical analyses and chemical characterizations were carried out on historical cannonballs from the Fortress of San Juan de Ulúa, Veracruz, México. Cannonballs dating from the 18th and 19th centuries share metallurgical characteristics similar to those of material coming from a shipment of ammunition found in the wreck of a sunken French ship from the battle of Trafalgar. The analyses show that the base material is grey cast iron with a carbon equivalent of 4.94 and a ferritic–perlitic matrix, in which the high phosphorus content has led to the formation of iron phosphide compounds in conjunction with a homogeneous distribution of carbon graphite flakes of Type C. In addition, corrosion products from samples revealed the presence of various crystalline iron compounds (X‐ray diffraction), mostly highly chlorinated iron compounds identified as akaganeite. X‐ray fluorescence identified various characteristics of the corrosion products as a function of the sampling depth. FT–IR spectroscopy revealed that the main difference between the corrosion products (internal and external) is determined by the number of organic species. Differential scanning calorimetry corroborated that these corrosion products are thermally stable compounds at elevated temperatures.     

A Box Containing Carpenter's Accessories from The Akko 1 Shipwreck,Israel: Archaeometallurgical Analysis of Surviving Ironwork

The Akko 1 shipwreck was an Egyptian armed vessel, built at the beginning of the 19th century. A wooden saw handle and a box containing iron nails and two split pins were discovered towards the stern. Given their function, location and context, these were part of the ship's carpenter's tools and accessories. A methodology was developed for conducting systematic metallurgical analysis in order to understand the manufacturing process of the surviving ironwork items, as well as to enlarge our knowledge regarding ironworking technologies during the early 19th century. Such methodology may assist in the future understanding of the technological evolution of similar wrought‐iron objects. The results demonstrated that the artefacts have a wrought‐iron heterogeneous microstructure and were manufactured by hot‐working prior to surface hardening by pack carburization.     

ARRIVAL OF COURTLY LOVE: MOVING IN THE EMOTIONAL SPACE

Courtly love appeared in twelfth‐century Europe as a dissent from the emotional regime established by the Gregorian Reform, by setting the lady, instead of God, as the object of worship. From a game‐theory perspective, courtly love and hedonism correspond to Nash equilibria, in contrast to Christian marriage, whose stability is threatened by sex‐as‐appetite on one side and devotion to God on the other, and whose maintenance depends on moral control. The Church developed fear and shame, which are counter‐emotions to desire‐as‐appetite. Courtly love restored the thrill of forbidden adventure. It also shared traits common to innovations in the natural world: it added complexity (by increasing costs, emphasizing courtship, self‐restraint, and extremes of suffering); it was made possible by the plasticity of mating relationships; it introduced a small disorder in the ordered regime of Christian marriage; it demanded an adaptive effort, requiring the man to face ever more perilous trials and the woman to appear ever more attractive. Though obtained as a small deviation from the existing emotional regime, it had thoroughgoing and long‐lasting consequences for social control and for the political power of the Church. It also deeply modified the dynamic of longing in ego's representation. By taking the temporal form of a capture, it contrasts with twelfth‐century Bengal, where love was characterized by maintenance in an indefinitely repeating worship, by the absence of a here‐now versus target‐later dualism. It also contrasts with eleventh‐century Heian Japan, where love was intermingled with the melancholy of an impossible return, which is the antithesis of the concept of capture.     

LOCALIZATION AND INDUSTRY CLUSTERING ECONOMETRICS: AN ASSESSMENT OF GIBBS MODELS FOR SPATIAL POINT PROCESSES

The objective of this paper is to assess an approach to statistical modeling of point referenced establishment data that permit inclusion of “environmental” or establishment‐specific covariates and specific forms of interestablishment interaction. Gibbs models are used to decompose the conditional intensity of the spatial point process into trend and interaction components. The trend is composed of access measures (primarily different classes of roads) and three different interaction processes are tested: Geyer, area interaction, and Strauss hard core. While the models used have proved to be useful in ecology, we are unaware of any applications to establishment or firm data. In empirical application, the models yield intuitively appealing results for the trend component, and the ability to specify the interaction component gives deeper insights into interestablishment spatial dynamics than any previously published methods.     

COMMUTING TIME AND HOUSEHOLD RESPONSIBILITIES: EVIDENCE USING PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING

We examine the relationship between individual commuting behavior and household responsibilities, with a focus on gender differences in that relationship. Using the Dutch Time Use Survey for the years 2000 and 2005, we analyze the relationship between commuting time, home production, and childcare. To deal with reverse causality, we use Propenstity Score Matching techniques to obtain imputed data for individuals. We find that the effect of home production on commuting time for women is more than double that for men, while childcare time has an effect on women's commuting behavior only. Our results shedding light on the Household Responsibility Hypothesis.