CAN A PREDICTED FUTURE STILL BE AN OPEN FUTURE? ALGORITHMIC FORECASTS AND ACTIONABILITY IN PRECISION MEDICINE*

The openness of the future is rightly considered one of the qualifying aspects of the temporality of modern society. The open future, which does not yet exist in the present, implies radical unpredictability. This article discusses how, in the last few centuries, the resulting uncertainty has been managed with probabilistic tools that compute present information about the future in a controlled way. The probabilistic approach has always been plagued by three fundamental problems: performativity, the need for individualization, and the opacity of predictions. We contrast this approach with recent forms of algorithmic forecasting, which seem to turn these problems into resources and produce an innovative form of prediction. But can a predicted future still be an open future? We explore this specific contemporary modality of historical futures by examining the recent debate about the notion of actionability in precision medicine, which focuses on a form of individualized prediction that enables direct intervention in the future it predicts.     

The Making of Mitteldeutschland. On the Function of Implicit and Explicit Symbolic Features for Implementing Regions and Regional Identity

Abstract: According to the theory of 'significative regionalisation' (Werlen), territorial entities may be understood as products of symbolic practices. However, the assumption that regions are not only made but also continuously performed in acts of communication effects the character of substantial research into ostensible and latent spatial imaginations apparent in communication processes. In this article, the reactivation of Mitteldeutschland (literally the 'centre of Germany') in a televisionseries about the region's history is the empirical starting point for conceptualizing contemporary processes of symbolic regionalization. The approach taken covers the entire communication chain from the editorial process to the film material up to everyday language use of the programs target group. Three empirical studies with specific methods of research (hermeneutics, argumentation analysis and semi-structured interviews) illustrate this interlinked process. As an analytical tool, a fundamental distinction between implicit 'common places' of spatial representation and more obvious and thus negotiable explicit features of spatial signification is suggested. The analysis elucidates that — even under conditions of contemporary globalization — the massmedia reproduce traditional practices of spatial representation, as, for instance, a persistent and taken-for-granted use of container images indicates. Regarding the explicit features, however, the medias' influence seems to be quite low. Mitteldeutschland's geography, as proposed by the television program, is questioned and negotiated in everyday symbolic practice. Up until now, the region thus remains continuously 'under construction'.     

Provenance of Early Bronze Age metal artefacts in Western Switzerland using elemental and lead isotopic compositions and their possible relation with copper minerals of the nearby Valais

Ten Early Bronze Age (BzA1, 2200–2000 BC) copper artefacts from the central Valais region from Switzerland were studied for their elemental composition and lead isotope ratios. In order to answer the archaeological question of a local copper supply, a database for copper minerals across the Valais (Switzerland) has been established. This database contains 69 data on lead isotope ratios as well as additional information on the minerals and geochemical associations for copper minerals from 38 locations in the Valais. Comparisons of the artefacts were also made with data pertaining to minerals from various deposits from Europe and Anatolia taken from the literature. The provenance of the materials is very diverse. Some of the data are compatible with the data from the copper mineral deposits of the Valais region. Moreover, three copper lunulae were identified as possibly Tuscan, which suggests contacts between Italy and the Valais region. This pattern also establishes a multiplicity of provenances for the metal and cultural influences in the Alpine environment of the Rhone Valley of Switzerland at the beginning of the Early Bronze Age.     

Using the Capability Approach to Conceptualise Inequality in Archaeology: the Case of the Late Neolithic Bosnian Site Okolište c. 5200–4600 <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">bce</Emphasis>

The past few decades have witnessed a growing realisation that market-based measures of human well-being—measures that centre on income and consumption distributions—miss some other perhaps even more essential elements of human well-being. This insight has found a prominent expression in the work of the Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen’s so-called capability approach. At the same time, the market-based measure of inequality as a function of the distribution of material remains in graves and other locations remain dominant in archaeology. In this paper, we explore the significance of the capability approach, and the associated concept of human well-being based on the idea of capabilities, to the archaeology of social inequality and social malintegration. We discuss these notions using the case study of the Late Neolithic Bosnian tell site Okoli?te and argue that there, in c. 5200–4600 bce, the monopolisation of certain critical goods led to a critical capability inequality, malintegration and to a prolonged period of social unrest and decline.     

A preliminary report on new Ediacaran fossils from Iran

Vickers-Rich, P., Soleimani, S., Farjandi, F., Zand, M., Linnemann, U., Hofmann, M., Wilson, S.A., Cas, R. &; Rich, T.H. November, 2017. A preliminary report on new Ediacaran fossils from Iran. Alcheringa 42, 231–244. ISSN 0311-5518.

Recent exploratory field mapping of marine sedimentary sequences in the Koushk Mine locality of the Bafq region in Central Iran, and on the northern slopes of the Elborz Mountains south of the Caspian Sea, has yielded large complex body and trace fossils of Neoproterozoic–early Cambrian age. The recovered specimens resemble the previously documented Precambrian discoidal form Persimedusites, and a the tubular morphotype Corumbella, which is a novel occurrence for Iran and otherwise only recorded before from Brazil and the western USA. Additional enigmatic traces can not yet be interpreted unequivocally, but suggest that future work may uncover more unusual Ediacaran fossils from various localities in Central Iran.

Patricia Vickers-Rich* [prich@swin.edu.au, pat.rich@monash.edu], Faculty of Science, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne (Hawthorn), Victoria 3122, Australia; Sara Soleimani [sara_soleimani@yahoo.com], Palaeontology Department, Geological Survey of Iran, Tehran, Iran; Farnoosh Farjandi [farnooshfarjandi@gmail.com], Department of Geochemical Exploration, Geological Survey of Iran, Tehran, Iran; Mehdi Zand [zand.mehdi.geo@gmail.com], Geology Department, Bafq Mining Company, Koushk Mine, Yazd, Iran. Ulf Linnemann [ulf.linnemann@senckenberg.de], and Mandy Hofmann [mandy.hofmann@senckenberg.de], Senckenberg Naturhistorische Sammlungen, Dresden, Museum für Mineralogie und Geologie, Sektion Geochronologie, Koenigsbruecker Landstrasse 159, D-01109, Dresden, Germany; Siobhan A. Wilson [sasha.wilson@monash.edu], School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne (Clayton), Victoria 3800, Australia; Raymond Cas [ray.cas@monash.edu], School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne (Clayton), Victoria 3800, Australia; Thomas H. Rich? [trich@museum.vic.gov.au], Museum Victoria, Exhibition Gardens, PO Box 666, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001 Australia. *Also affiliated with: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne (Clayton), Victoria 3800, Australia; School of Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne (Burwood), Victoria, Australia 3125; Palaeontology Department, Museum Victoria, Carlton Gardens, PO Box 666, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. ?Also affiliated with: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne (Clayton), Victoria 3800, Australia; Faculty of Science, Swinburne University of Science and Technology, Melbourne (Hawthorn), Victoria 3122, Australia.     

Who goes to Russia? Understanding gendered migration patterns

Because of its relatively recent emergence as an international migrant destination, the Russian Federation provides an interesting context to examine when and how migrant flows “masculinize” or “feminize.” While recent migration to Russia appears to be male-dominated, the sex composition of registered migrant flows has varied substantially throughout the post-Soviet period, and there is significant variation in the sex composition of flows from different origin countries. I use multiple origin- and destination-based data-sets to identify gender differences in both the number and characteristics of migrants to Russia from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Vietnam. These data show that labor migration from Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and probably Georgia is male-dominated, with women coming as tied migrants, while men and women are equally likely to be labor migrants coming from Ukraine and Vietnam. In addition, high levels of human capital are an important motivating factor for women’s migration in the former Soviet Union. These findings highlight the importance of considering both origin and destination factors to understand the gender dynamics of migrant flows.     

An alternative interpretation of the Ediacaran (Precambrian) chondrophore Chondroplon Wade

The genus Chondroplon, known from only 2 specimens worldwide, is re-interpreted as a deformed Dickinsonia.