1914 and 2014: should we be worried?

The outbreak of the First World War remains a great historical puzzle and a source of concern, for if we do not understand how it came about we run the risk of stumbling into a similar catastrophe. This article draws parallels between the world of 1914 and the present. It starts with comfortable assumptions made by so many, then and now, that a major conflict was impossible or improbable and then looks at the paradox that globalization not only made the world more interdependent and linked, but also fostered intense local and national identities. It suggests factors that propelled Europe to war in 1914, including national rivalries, imperialism, the arms race and a shifting power balance between rising and declining powers, as well as ideologies and assumptions such as Social Darwinism and militarism, and points out that similar forces and ideas are present today. The article also stresses the dangerous complacency that can arise as a result of decision‐makers having successfully dealt with a series of crises. European decision‐makers also assumed that they could successfully use war as an instrument of policy and largely ignored or explained away the mounting evidence that the advantage in conflict was swinging to the defence. Again, as the author points out, there are disquieting parallels with the present.     

Mineralogy and fluid inclusion gas chemistry of production well mineral scale deposits at the Dixie Valley geothermal field,USA

At the Dixie Valley geothermal field, Nevada, USA, fluid boiling triggered the precipitation of carbonate scale minerals in concentric bands around tubing inserted into production well 28–33. When the tubing was removed, this mineral scale was sampled at 44 depth intervals between the wellhead and 1227 m depth. These samples provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of fluid boiling on the scale mineralogy and geochemistry of the vapor and liquid phase. In this study, the mineralogy of the scale deposits and the composition of the fluid inclusion gases trapped in the mineral scales were analyzed. The scale consists mainly of calcite from 670–1112 m depth and aragonite from 1125 to 1227 m depth, with traces of quartz and Mg‐smectite. Mineral textures, including hopper growth, twinning, and fibrous growth in the aragonite and banded deposits of fine grained calcite crystals, are the result of progressive boiling. The fluid inclusion noncondensable gas was dominated by CO₂. However, significant variations in He relative to N₂ and Ar provide evidence that the geothermal reservoir consists of mixed source deeply circulating reservoir water and shallow, air saturated meteoric water. Gas analyses for many inclusions also showed higher CH₄ and H₂ relative to CO₂ than measured in gas sampled from this well, other production wells, and fumaroles. These inclusions are interpreted to have trapped CH₄‐ and H₂‐enriched gas resulting from early stages of boiling.     

BULK STABLE LIGHT ISOTOPIC RATIOS IN RECENT AND ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESINS: TOWARDS DETECTING THE TRANSPORT OF RESINS IN ANTIQUITY?*

We have applied and refined methods for the determination of bulk hydrogen, carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in modern and archaeological resins. The modern resins have a wide range of isotopic values and vary within the same tree, between individual trees, with species and location. For all isotopes measured, there is a general trend of increasing depletion of the heavier isotope with increasing altitude. There is also a linear trend between depletion of δD and δ¹³C values with increasing latitude; this trend is less clear for oxygen, but is related to the meteoric water line. Two case studies using archaeological resins known or suspected to have been transported in antiquity have been investigated to determine whether isotopic signatures can assist in pinpointing the geographical origin of the resin: Pistacia sp. resin from Canaanite amphorae imported into Egypt from known geographical locations in the eastern Mediterranean during the Late Bronze Age, and Roman amphorae sherds lined with Pinus sp. resin from sites ranging from Britain to the eastern Mediterranean. These results show separate groupings between the two resin types (pine/pistacia) and between the modern/archaeological resins. Some archaeological samples are distinct from the others and the modern resins show differences between geographical areas. However, there are no clear patterns relating the different Canaanite fabrics or the suggested manufacturing site of the Roman amphorae.     

Geopolitics and the Northern Sea Route

Experimental transit voyages along the Northern Sea Route to the north of Russia are breaking new ground each year and the route is already significant for the export of raw materials from Russian ports. National and corporate interests are now driving Russia's Arctic policy, rather than, as formerly, an exclusive focus on security, and the Russian government has ambitious plans for the development of the route. Future regular transit of the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia, at present facing serious obstacles, could be accelerated not only by climate change, but by overload on, or interruptions to, the existing route through the Suez Canal, which passes through some of the world's most volatile regions. Despite the formidable impediments to regular year round transit of the Northern Sea Route, governments of the non‐Arctic states with most at stake, particularly Germany and China, appear to be taking no chances, and to be jockeying for influence in the Arctic region. The interests of the non‐Arctic trading states, and of the European Union, more inclined to view the Arctic Ocean as part of the ‘common heritage of mankind’, are however potentially different from those of Russia, and indeed of Canada in respect of the North East passage, both determined to maintain their exclusive national jurisdiction over emerging sea lanes through their territorial waters. Great issues are at stake here. The emergence of new sea lanes has historically impacted heavily on the international balance of power. Where the merchant fleets go, navies will shortly follow.