Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting,analysis, and policy optimization

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.     

茨冈人(续一)

农庄主席叶尔马科夫来到区委书记办公室的时候,那个茨冈人已经先在那里了,因为有些好心人告诉了他直接来区委的近路。农庄主席看到茨冈人在区委书记那里,立即变得灰溜溜的,不经心地嘟哝了一句: “啊,是你,大胡子……”茨冈人坐在书记办公桌旁的椅子上,没有作声。区委书记叶列明,微笑着离开办公桌,伸着手迎向农庄主席。“季莫非·伊里奇,好久不见……你们难道不认识吗?”他用眼瞟着茨冈人问道。     

与众不同的俄罗斯汉学研究与收藏家K.A.斯卡奇科夫

康斯坦定·安德里安诺维奇·斯卡奇科夫(K.A.Skachkov,中文名孔气)收集中国书籍和抄本之际,恐怕不会想到一百五十多年之后,他的收藏会在中国引起注意.     

目錄學的對象和意義

什么是目錄学? 蘇維埃的出版物——書籍、小册子、雜誌和報紙,是社会主义文化的强有力的工具,是教育人民羣衆的源泉,是共產主義社會建設者在進行創造性的勞動中的助手。     

天堂告急

在这个以建制之速朽而名垂史册的时代,得知国家公园历经多年风雨,仍然是美国有史以来最好的创意,无疑是让人安慰的。1912年,英国外交家詹姆斯·布赖斯做出了这个判断,当时美国能够拿来夸耀的公园还屈指可数,而新建一个联邦机构专职照看这些公园还是四年之后的事情。逝者如斯夫!再过不到十年的时间,美国人就该开香槟庆祝国家公园管理局的百岁生日了。不过,以最近的情势来看,这要有一个前提:到时得有足够多的高标准未糟践踏,美国人才有理由举杯相庆。