Testing for Regional Differences in Means: Distinguishing Inherent from Spurious Spatial Autocorrelation by Restricted Randomization

Tests for differences among regional means are typically carried out by analysis of variance (ANOVA). When such data are spatially autocorrelated (SA), the assumptions of ANOVA are not met, giving rise to excessive type I error rates. Two spatially adjusted ANOVA methods, Griffith's and COCOPAN, have been proposed to overcome this problem. In this study we show, by means of extensive simulations, the magnitude of the error rates introduced by SA induced in isolation-by-distance models typical of those used in population genetics. For data suspected of exhibiting such SA, we propose a strategy for distinguishing between inherent SA, generated within the data by a contagious process, and spurious SA, introduced by regional differences in means. The approach adopted is that of restricted randomization of distance matrices. We also furnish error rates and power estimates for both Griffith's method and COCOPAN. In addition to the simulated data, the methods are applied to an actual example from plant population biology.     

Industry Characteristics Linked to Establishment Concentrations in Nonmetropolitan Areas

In this paper we investigate industry characteristics associated with the clustering of establishments in three-digit SIC manufacturing industries in nonmetropolitan areas. The dispersion parameter k of the negative binomial distribution is selected as the measure of industry spatial concentration. Associations between industry characteristics and spatial concentration are investigated using OLS regression analysis. Our findings indicate that the spatial clustering of establishments is positively related to industry average establishment size, reliance on natural resource inputs, labor intensity, cost shares of professional and technical employees, and cost shares of low-skilled workers. Agglomeration is negatively related to multiplant structure, employment in precision production, and reliance on local product and input markets.     

New insights into Mao’s initial strategic consideration towards the Korean War intervention

The argument that the US army’s crossing of the 38th parallel compelled China’s intervention has been widely accepted in the West. However, as the US manoeuvre posed a major threat to the political and ideological foundations of the CCP regime in the early period of the Korean War, Mao Zedong wanted to send troops to assist North Korean’s quick victory. However, this was not realised because of Stalin’s negative position. Mao’s stance shows that his overriding criteria for intervention was not whether US forces would cross the 38th parallel, but whether their dispatch helped to solidify the CCP regime and if the preconditions for victory existed.     

Between diplomacy and solidarity: Western European support networks for Sandinista Nicaragua

Between the 1960s and 1980s, political crises in the Third World became a source of inspiration and action in Western European societies. The Sandinista revolution in Nicaragua was one of the most famous instigators of transnational activism. All over Western Europe, locally organised committees staged public actions, collected funds and educated their societies about the plight of this Central American nation, whose Marxist government faced strong international opposition from the Reagan administration as well as domestic social, political and economic turbulence. This article looks at Third World solidarity activism from a new perspective, assessing the active role of the Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) in the emergence and development of activism in Western Europe. It argues that FSLN diplomacy – initially by exiles and later by official diplomats – initiated the creation of transnational networks, driven by the quest for international support. They fuelled activism by providing activists with fresh information, contacts and avenues for action, but also cemented cross-border co-operation between activists and stimulated a ‘Europeanisation’ of local activism.     

Hurricane impacts on southeastern United States coastal national park visitation

As a major contributor to local economies, the tourism industry has been greatly impacted by natural disasters. This study demonstrates the association between tourism economies and impacts of hurricanes in the southeastern United States containing coastal national parks, known for attracting a large number of tourists and having experienced hurricanes. In keeping with two longitudinal data methods (i.e. panel logit model and autoregressive integrated moving average), this study focused on the relationship between the (1) duration, intensity, and damage of hurricanes; (2) existing climate conditions; and (3) tourism demand on park visitation during hurricane and tourism seasons. As a whole, the impacts of hurricanes and climate conditions (precipitation, temperature) were found to have a negative effect on tourism demands (park visitation). With regard to the response of tourism economies to natural disaster damage, parks that experienced stronger natural disasters may be closed for a longer period in order to reconstruct facilities or natural/cultural resources damaged by storms. In an attempt to improve tourism-based regional economies, overcome the challenge of natural disasters on tourism economies, and increase opportunities for establishing disaster management, it is necessary to make an effort to allay unexpected damage to tourism-based areas through proactive plans for disaster mitigation activities.     

Selective Saber Rattling by Iraqi Politicians

Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi stunned the Iraqi and American political establishment with his comeback success in Iraq's 2010 election. Speculation immediately began to focus on how his coalition could have won the most seats, focusing on disaffection with the status quo. But the answer could come from a tactic Allawi has repeatedly used: tying his domestic political opponents to countries that Iraq has clashed with in the past, to reignite old hatreds and fears. This article investigates, not only how Allawi and even his rivals have adopted such a strategy, but also how our current understanding of the diversionary theory of conflict needs to be modified to see how politicians in other places play this wag the dog game.     

Social learning as an analytical lens for co-creative planning

This article highlights the psychological dimension of social learning. Insights from psychology address the interrelated role of personal and group dynamics in social learning. This can provide a useful starting point for a rewarding use of social learning as an analytical tool in co-creative planning. Such an approach to social learning proves beneficial to (i) identify both positive and negative potential effects of social learning, (ii) untangle hidden power relationships at play at individual and small group levels in relation to social psychological factors, and (iii) discern the role of individuals and small groups within their larger contexts. The findings are empirically illustrated with a case of incremental urban development in Groningen, the Netherlands.