国内外旅游业危机管理研究综述

本文强调了旅游业危机管理研究的必要性,对近年来国内外相关文献进行系统回顾,分析了旅游业危机管理的概念、理论基础、发展历程和研究内容等,并总结了国内外的差距,对新的研究趋势提出见解。     

岷江上游新石器时代的文化景观与环境动因

岷江上游位于我国西南横断山脉东缘,自然和人文地理特征鲜明,是藏彝民族走廊中最独特的一个区域。本文以岷江上游新石器时代为时间断面,从文化景观的角度,探讨文化源流、聚落建筑、生产生活、文化习俗以及文化传播等要素的呈现,并分析背后的环境机制以及景观呈现对环境的响应。     

Geographically Weighted Extreme Learning Machine: A Method for Space–Time Prediction

Spatial heterogeneity has been regarded as an important issue in space–time prediction. Although some statistical methods of space–time predictions have been proposed to address spatial heterogeneity, the linear assumption makes it difficult for these methods to predict geographical processes accurately because geographical processes always involve complicated nonlinear characteristics. An extreme learning machine (ELM) has the advantage of approximating nonlinear relationships with a rapid learning speed and excellent generalization performance. However, determining how to incorporate spatial heterogeneity into an ELM to predict space–time data is an urgent problem. For this purpose, a new method called geographically weighted ELM (GWELM) is proposed to address spatial heterogeneity based on an ELM in this article. GWELM is essentially a locally varying ELM in which the parameters are regarded as functions of spatial locations, and geographically weighted least squares is applied to estimate the parameters in a local model. The proposed method is used to analyze two groups of different data sets, and the results demonstrate that the GWELM method is superior to the comparative method, which is also developed to address spatial heterogeneity.     

清乾隆朝第二次廓尔喀侵藏战争(1791－1792)史上的几个问题(英文)

<正>From 1791 to 1792 (the 56th to 57th year of the Qianlong Emperor's reign) during the Qing Dynasty, the Gurkhas invaded Tibet for the second time. The first invasion had been in 1788-1789. This time the Qing court sent troops to Tibet and repelled the invaders going     

艰难的博弈:美国、中国与朝鲜战争的结束

艾森豪威尔当选美国总统后,急于结束朝鲜战争,为此目的而计划采取军事上的硬手段,发动强大的地面进攻,甚至企图诉诸核武器扩大战争的范围。与此形成鲜明对照的是,中国政府一直致力于打破停战谈判的僵局,早在斯大林去世前就在调整谈判政策,从而在推动战争结束的过程中发挥了决定性的作用。在此期间,华盛顿决策层一直考虑使用何种军事手段结束战争,最终明确制定了以核攻击为核心的政策。但无论何时,中国政府都不惧怕任何核威胁。通过与美国方面进行艰难的博弈,中国政府最终推动战争的结束,从而使朝鲜半岛恢复了和平。     

明清以来唐寅文集误收及著作权有争议者考论

唐寅文集自问世以来,不断有学者对其进行增补。人们在对唐寅文字作品有了比较全面认识的同时,错收、误收也时有发生。这些情况的出现,一方面是限于之前文献搜集比勘相对困难,另一方面也与艺术市场长期充斥唐寅的书画伪作有关。唐寅文集目前存在如下问题:他人作品误作唐寅者、原诗略经改动并易题后署名唐寅者、作者有不同说法者、改易数字另成一作等。另外,署名唐寅所作的散曲中,亦因各种晚明曲选的题署不一而存在争议。利用故宫博物院藏唐寅行书自书曲,可以部分地解开其散曲著作权之谜。唐寅文集出现的种种问题,不仅需要引起唐寅研究者的注意,也值得今人编辑艺术家文集时重视。     

Cities in a pandemic: Evidence from China

This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the intertemporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city-specific and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on lagged infections. Moreover, there exists significant heterogeneity at different phases of the epidemiological cycle.     

月份牌最早印刷发行的时间分析

月份牌最早印刷发行的时间是1876年1月3日,而不是1884年2月2日;月份牌这一名词和发行时间也不是源于1896年的《沪景开彩图》,更不是来自20世纪初期用擦笔水彩画法绘制的月份牌年画。月份牌的印刷发行与19世纪中叶照相石印技术在中国的传播与发展有密切的关系。     

日苏关系与国共的战略利益——1943年蒋介石制裁中共的策划与取消

关于国民党发动的第三次反共高潮,毛泽东当年多次判断其起因主要是蒋介石相信日军即将进攻苏联。对于毛的这一判断,迄今,相关论著或者完全回避,不予论及,或者语焉不详,不能把问题说透。原因无非两点:其一,没有弄懂日苏与国共三国四方之间的战略关系;其二,没有从蒋介石那里找出相关的证据。本文将着重提出并回答这两个问题。关于此次反共高潮的结束,通常判定为7月中下旬,从现象上看,这一论点可以成立。其实,接下来蒋还制定了多个肃清或制裁陕北的计划,这些计划的制定、删改与放弃,本文亦将予以研究。简言之,国共之间的这场政治纠纷,其发生与终结,都是蒋介石基于国际战略动向的观察而做出的选择。这一过程较为集中地体现了蒋的战略视野及其对于多种战略关系的联系与权衡。