Bayesian Areal Wombling for Geographical Boundary Analysis

In the analysis of spatially referenced data, interest often focuses not on prediction of the spatially indexed variable itself, but on boundary analysis , that is, the determination of boundaries on the map that separate areas of higher and lower values. Existing boundary analysis methods are sometimes generically referred to as wombling , after a foundational article by Womble (1951). When data are available at point level (e.g., exact latitude and longitude of disease cases), such boundaries are most naturally obtained by locating the points of steepest ascent or descent on the fitted spatial surface (Banerjee, Gelfand, and Sirmans 2003). In this article, we propose related methods for areal data (i.e., data which consist only of sums or averages over geopolitical regions). Such methods are valuable in determining boundaries for data sets that, perhaps due to confidentiality concerns, are available only in ecological (aggregated) format, or are only collected this way (e.g., delivery of health-care or cost information). After a brief review of existing algorithmic techniques (including that implemented in the commercial software BoundarySeer), we propose a fully model-based framework for areal wombling, using Bayesian hierarchical models with posterior summaries computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We explore the suitability of various existing hierarchical and spatial software packages (notably S-plus and WinBUGS) to the task, and show the approach's superiority over existing nonstochastic alternatives, both in terms of utility and average mean square error behavior. We also illustrate our methods (as well as the solution of advanced modeling issues such as simultaneous inference) using colorectal cancer late detection data collected at the county level in the state of Minnesota.     

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乾隆皇帝的《御制盛京赋》能够在世界范围内广泛流传是因为它有着巨大的历史价值、学价值及艺术价值。本就《御制盛京赋》的创作背景及内容作以简介,主要阐述它的版本源流情况,相关的名人和史实也穿插期间．试图理清《御制盛京赋》版本的传承脉络及特点。     

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近年来,在洛阳地区陆续发现了5具北宋画像石棺,纪年均为北宋徽宗时期。从石棺的形制结构、雕刻题材、雕刻技法等方面看,具有典型的时代特征与地域特征,是在“事死如事生”观念支配下,洛阳地区传统的石棺石刻线画艺术与北宋中晚期所流行之仿木构砖室墓相结合的产物。     

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改革开放以来,甘肃旅游业开发取得了长足进步,但面临的问题依然很多。甘肃旅游业必须构建立体开发模式．探寻新思路,方能在中国人民全面建设小康社会的伟大进程中对区域经济发展起到应有的作用。构建立体开发模式必须做好空间结构优化、时间结构优化、融资渠道优化、旅游商品优化、宣传促销优化等方面的工作。     

Transnationalism and identity: a tale of two faces and multiple lives

Transnational ties add new complexities to the continuous and dynamic processes of identity formation. Based on self‐reflexive narratives, this paper examines the authors' identity transformations associated with their respective transnational experiences. We are two Asian women from India and China, respectively, who are international students pursuing doctoral degrees in Canada. Although we share similar demographic and economic backgrounds, we perform distinct transnational acts. Focusing specifically on social and cultural linkages, we have identified reasons that have influenced our cross‐border involvements. Based on our findings, we present an emergent conceptual framework that highlights interactive psychological, sociocultural and economic processes that influence the formation of individual transnational identities. We also share with our readers some methodological lessons learnt along our path of self‐expression, analysis and representation .     

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《透过一块晦暗的玻璃》体现了美国早期史研究领域的较新的发展趋势。这本论文集从小历史的角度来论述了早期美国史研究中关于个人认同的自我探索与边缘化状态的问题,并较好地弥补了大历史的缺陷,使人们从历史叙述、文本细读和语言学转向这三个方面更新了对小历史长处的认识。     

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宋代官窑是中国古陶瓷研究中的重要内容之一。长期以来,由于对相关历史文献的理解不同以及考古发掘的局限性,致使在宋代官窑瓷器研究中存在许多悬而未决的问题,诸如何为北宋官窑,北宋朝廷是否在都城汴京设置过官窑,北宋官窑是否就是汝窑,河南汝州张公巷窑是否是北宋官窑,南宋修内司官窑的称谓是否准确,南宋官窑是否只有郊坛下官窑一处,何为文献上所说的内窑,老虎洞窑是修内司官窑还是文献上所说的续窑,等等。本文在对专家学者们对上述问题的看法进行疏理的基础上,指出对宋代官窑瓷器的研究离不开传世宋代官窑瓷器、现代科学技术手段和考古发掘资料,只有将这三者结合起来开展综合研究,才能最终解决上述问题。     

党校图书馆的特殊性及发展思路

本文阐述了党校图书馆工作的特殊性,分析了制约党校图书馆发展的主要因素,并提出了相应的对策措施。     

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本文概述日本国内有关古代国家形成的各种学说并阐述了作者自己的观点。他认为,把统治组织及其统治对象的人民作为国家的基本标志,是必要的。但是,还需要重视反映在首长制社会中的、在日本前近代社会底层流动的本质,采用分层社会的多线进化理论,更适合日本列岛的实际情况。有关国家形成理论的研究,一方面需要从微观与宏观的不同角度来观察日本列岛各地丰富多彩的历史发展过程;另一方面,无论是从当代课题的关系上,还是为了寻求历史模式,都需要在东亚或是亚洲的范围内考察日本的历史。     

CHINESE AND TIBETAN HISTORICAL RECORDS IN LUMBINI

<正>In the early 1990s,as the senior visiting scholar commissioned by the Education Working Committee(now the Ministry of Education)of the People's Republic of China,I was invited by the Asian Research Center of Tribhuvan University in Nepal to work in Nepal for one year. During my stay I had a rare opportunity,while participating in a Buddhist conference,to