A simulation of the transmission of HIV and AIDS in regional populations within the United Kingdom

"The spread of HIV-1 in the United Kingdom is simulated by a model which integrates behavioural and epidemiological processes within a multi-regional population projection framework and represents the spatial heterogeneities in the distribution of HIV which have significant effects on transmission patterns. Analyses determine the significance of different parameters in contributing to prediction uncertainty and highlight the importance of behavioural change and international population movements."     

THE BEGINNINGS OF ISLAMIC STONEPASTE TECHNOLOGY*

A multidisciplinary programme of research on Islamic pottery has been focused on questions of the dating, provenance and technology of Islamic pottery. One particular question has been the development of stonepaste, a material made primarily of crushed quartz with added frit-glass and clay. The combination of the different approaches of this study has revealed early foundations for the technology in ninth-century AD Iraq, apparently originating in the clay ceramic rather than the ‘Egyptian faience’ tradition. Subsequent and final practice developed in tenth- and eleventh-century AD Egypt. This technology becomes the primary body for all fine Islamic ceramics.     

Urban Traffic Flows and Fourier Transforms

The purpose of this paper is first, to present some evidence indicative of a rough daily periodicity in traffic counts at a cross-section of an urban road accompanied by a considerable amount of seemingly random additional variation; and second, to attempt an accounting through Fast Fourier Transform and power spectrum density functions of this additional variation beyond the rough daily cycle. Reasons behind the macroscopic variable's dynamic behavior are provided. Relatively extensive traffic counts make them especially suited for investigating various dynamic behaviors, including possibly nonperiodic (chaotic) patterns.     

Book reviews

Walker Connor. Ethnonationalism. The Quest for Understanding. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. xiii + 234 pp. No price given.

Elie Kedourie. Nationalism. Fourth, expanded edition. Oxford: Blackwell, 1993. xxi + 154 pp. $32.95 (paper).

Thomas Hylland Eriksen. Ethnicity and Nationalism. Anthropological Perspectives. London: Pluto Press, 1993. ix + 179 pp. £25.00 (cloth), £9.95 (paper).

David Brown. The State and Ethnic Politics in Southeast Asia. London: Routledge, 1994. xxi + 354 pp.

Ted Robert Gurr. Minorities at Risk. A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993. xii + 427 pp. $US37.50 (cloth), $US24.95 (paper).

Guntram F.A. Werther. Self‐Determination in Western Democracies. Aboriginal Politics in a Comparative Perspective. Westport: Greenwood Press, 1992. xxxvi + 113 pp. $US43.00 (cloth).

Morton H. Halpern and David J. Scheffer with Patricia L. Small. Self‐Determination in the New World Order. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1992. xiv + 178 pp. No price given.

Kamal S. Shehadi. Ethnic Self‐Determination and the Break‐up of States. Adelphi Paper 283. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1993. 90 pp. £10.00 (paper).

Miron Rezun (ed.). Nationalism and the Breakup of an Empire: Russia and its Periphery. Westport: Praeger, 1992. x + 197 pp. US$42.95 (cloth).

Garry Tompf (ed.) Islands and Enclaves. Nationalisms and Separatist Pressures in Islands and Littoral Contexts. New Delhi: Sterling Publishers Private Ltd, 1993. xxxv + 379 pp. No price given.

David Little. Sri Lanka. The Invention of Enmity. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1994. xxxviii + 175 pp. $US14.95 (paper).

Ralph R. Premdas. Ethnicity and Development: The Case of Fiji. United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, DP46, 1993. 50 pp. No price given.

P.J. Boyce and J.R. Angel (eds). Diplomacy in the Marketplace: Australia in World Affairs 1981–90. Melbourne: Longman Cheshire, 1992. xi + 330 pp. $26.50 (paper).

Jim George. Discourses of Global Politics: A Critical (Re)Introduction to International Relations. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. xi + 265pp. $US45.00 (cloth), $US18.95 (paper).

Claire T. Sjolander and Wayne Cox (eds). Beyond Positivism: Critical Reflections on International Relations. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. x + 203 pp. $US35.00 (cloth).

Lawrence Freedman, Paul Hayes and Robert O'Neill (eds). War, Strategy and International Politics: Essays in Honour of Sir Michael Howard. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992. xi + 322 pp. No price given.

Craig N. Murphy and Roger Tooze (eds). The New International Political Economy. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1991. vii + 237 pp. $US33.00 (cloth), $US15.95 (paper).

Hugh Smith (ed.). Peacekeeping, Challenges for the Future. Canberra: Australian Defence Studies Centre, Australian Defence Force Academy, 1993. xiv + 229 pp. $20.00 (paper).

Gary T. Gardner. Nuclear Nonproliferation: A Primer. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. xiii + 141 pp. $US25.00 (cloth), $US10.95 (paper).

Jack Donnelly. International Human Rights. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993. xvi + 206 pp. $US39.95 (cloth), $US12.95 (paper).

Luther Martin (ed.). Religious Transformations and Socio‐Political Change: Eastern Europe and Latin America. Berlin: Moutonde Gruyter, 1993. xiv + 457 pp. DM198.00 (cloth).

Bronislaw Misztal and Anson Shupe (eds). Religion and Politics in Comparative Perspective: Revival of Religious Fundamentalism in East and West. Westport: Praeger, 1992. xii + 223 pp. $US45.00 (cloth).

Jeff Hayes. Religion in Third World Politics. Buckingham: Open University Press, 1993. ix + 166 pp. $39.95 (paper).

John Francis. The Politics of Regulation: A Comparative Perspective. Oxford: Blackwell, 1993. xi + 289 pp. $45.00 (paper).

Philip Bell and Roger Bell. Implicated: The United States in Australia. Melbourne: Oxford University Press, 1993. xii + 220 pp. $19.95 (paper).

Stephen E. Ambrose. Rise to Globalism: American Foreign Policy Since 1938. 7th revised edition. New York: Penguin Books, 1993. xvi + 428 pp. $16.95 (paper).

Amos Kiewe (ed.). The Modern Presidency and Crisis Rhetoric. Westview: Praeger, 1994. xxxvii + 246 pp. $US55.00 (cloth).

Elizabeth Pond. Beyond the Wall: Germany's Road to Unification. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1993. xv + 367 pp. No price given

H.G. Peter Wallach and Ronald A. Francisco. United Germany: The Past, Politics, Prospects. Westport: Praeger, 1992. viii + 173 pp. $US45.00 (cloth), $US15.95 (paper).

Robert Zuzowski. Political Dissent and Opposition in Poland: The Workers’ Defense Committee “KOR”. Westport: Praeger, 1992. xii + 293 pp. $US65.00 (cloth).

Roger Kanet, Deborah Nutter Miner and Tamara J. Resler (eds). Soviet Foreign Policy in Transition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. xvi + 308 pp. $130.00 (cloth).

Chris Ward. Stalin's Russia. London: Edward Arnold, 1993. xxii + 241 pp. $32.95 (paper).

Dale F. Eickelman (ed.). Russia's Muslim Frontiers: New Directions in Cross‐Cultural Analysis. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1993. ix + 206 pp. $US29.95 (cloth), $US12.95 (paper).

Tom Rogers. The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Analysis and Chronology. Westport: Greenwood Press, 1992. 223 pp. $US55.00 (cloth).

Hirano Ken'ichiro (ed.). The State and Cultural Transformation. Perspectives from East Asia. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1993. xi + 357 pp. $50.00 (paper).

Trevor Findlay (ed.). Arms Control in the Post‐Cold War World: With Implications for Asia‐Pacific. Canberra: Peace Research Centre, Australian National University, 1993. ix + 328 pp. $20.00 (paper).

C. Inglis, S. Gunasekeran, G. Sullivan and C.‐T. Wu (eds). Asians in Australia: The Dynamics of Migration and Settlement. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992. xvi + 230 pp. $24.95 (paper).

Russell Trood (ed.). The Future Pacific Economic Order: Australia's Role. Brisbane: Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, in association with the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1993. xii + 123 pp. $16.00 (paper).

Edward J. Lincoln. Japan's New Global Role. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1993. xi + 320 pp. $US28.95 (cloth).

Joseph P. Keddell. The Politics of Defence in Japan. Managing Internal and External Pressures. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 1993. xvi + 236 pp. $US47.50 (cloth).

Ryutaro Hashimoto. Vision of Japan. A Realistic Direction for the 21st Century. Tokyo: Bestsellers, 1994. 183 pp. No price given.

Kataoka Tetsuya (ed.). Creating Single‐Party Democracy: Japan's Postwar Political System. Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1992. 173 pp. $US17.95 (paper).

Gary Klintworth (ed.). Taiwan in the Asia‐Pacific in the 1990s. Canberra: Allen & Unwin in association with the Department of International Relations, The Australian National University, 1994. xv + 291 pp. $24.95 (paper).

Harold Brookfield and Yvonne Byron (eds). South‐East Asia's Environmental Future: The Search for Sustainability. Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur: United Nations University Press/Oxford University Press, 1993. xxxi + 422 pp. $69.95 (cloth).

Ben Kiernan (ed.). Genocide and Democracy in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge, the United Nations and the International Community. New Haven: Yale University Southeast Asia Studies Monograph No.41, 1993. 335 pp. No price given.

Frank Frost. The Peace Process in Cambodia: Issues and Prospects. Australia‐Asia Papers No.69, Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, 1993. 63 pp. $10.00 (paper).

Pheuiphanh Ngaosyvathn. Strategic Partnership and International Partnership: Australia's Post‐1975 Relations with Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Australia‐Asia Papers No.68, Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, 1993. 60 pp. $10.00 (paper).

William S. Turley and Mark Selden (eds). Reinventing Vietnamese Socialism: Doi Moi in Comparative Perspective. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993. xiv + 368 pp. $US44.95 (cloth).

Frank Frost. Vietnam's Foreign Relations: Dynamics of Change. Pacific Strategic Papers No.6, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1993. 90 pp. $US9.99 (paper).

Michael Vatikiotis. Indonesian Politics under Suharto: Order, Development and Pressure for Change. London: Routledge, 1993. xix + 220 pp. £27.50 (cloth).

Michele Turner. Telling: East Timor: Personal Testimonies 1942–1992. Kensington: New South Wales University Press, 1992. xxii + 218 pp. $19.95 (paper).

R.W.L. Austin. In the Shadow of the Durian. Indonesia Observed. Australians in Asia Series, no.10, Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, 1993. 80 pp. $12.00 (paper).

Janet Hunt and Stephen Webb (eds). Aid for a Change: A Plan to Reshape Australia's Overseas Aid— To Tackle Poverty and Promote Sustainable Human Development. Canberra: Australian Council for Overseas Aid, Development Dossier No.31, 1992. x + 113 pp. $10.00 (paper).

S. Mahmud Ali. The Fearful State: Power, People and Internal War in South Asia. London: Zed Books, 1993. $US49.95 (cloth), $US22.50 (paper).

Nigel Worden. The Making of Modern South Africa — Conquest, Segregation and Apartheid. Oxford: Blackwell, 1994. 166 pp. $22.95 (paper).

Morris H. Morley. Washington, Somoza, and the Sandinistas: State and Regime in US Policy Toward Nicaragua, 1969–1981. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. 343 pp. $120.00 (cloth).

James Painter. Bolivia and Coca. A Study in Dependency. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. xiv+l94 pp. $US35.00 (cloth).

Politics: Australia and the World Beyond the Headlines No.1. Sydney: Public Affairs Research Centre, University of Sydney, 1993. v + 264 pp. $19.95 (paper).

Hal Hill (ed.). Indonesia's New Order: The Dynamics of Socio‐Economic Transformation. St Leonards: Allen & Unwin, 1994. 364 pp. $29.95.     

Pretransition marital fertility variation over time: was there deliberate control in England?

An important line of research concerning historical fertility patterns in currently developed countries of Europe has concluded that, prior to the fertility transition, marital fertility was essentially constant over time, and deliberate fertility control was virtually unknown. It has been argued that variations over time in overall fertility were largely the consequence of variations in nuptiality. Other researchers have challenged these views and present evidence for the existence of a significant minority of fertility controllers in pretransition populations. In this article, we find support for this second view and argue that (1) there was significant, non-random variation in marital fertility over time, prior to the transition; (2) in many cases, this variation in marital fertility was large relative to contemporaneous variations in nuptiality; and (3) in a substantial minority of the cases, the variation over time in pretransition marital fertility was so large that it is suggestive of deliberate fertility control. Thus, our findings question the view of fertility transition as an innovation in deliberate marital fertility control. While most of our evidence is based on data from England and Wales, we find corroboration of our key results in other European data.     

NEUTRON ACTIVATION ANALYSIS OF AD 1660–1930 EUROPEAN COPPER-COLOURED BLUE GLASS TRADE BEADS FROM ONTARIO,CANADA

Blue glass trade beads from well-dated late seventeenth- to early twentieth-century sites and collections have been analysed non-destructively by instrumental neutron activation analysis. The beads display enough variations in their elemental contents to allow us to characterize the different chemistries. The implication of these results is that similar chemical analyses of blue beads from undated archaeological sites may be used to help date the sites, since each bead chemistry has a specific earliest period.