PARETO EXTRAPOLATION USING GROUPED INCOME DATA*

ABSTRACT. The distribution of above-median income groups can be described accurately by OLS regression of the Pareto distribution. The excellent fit of log-linear regression has led some researchers to conclude that extrapolated income measures in the open end of the distribution are reliable. The analysis of income distribution data for metropolitan areas reveals: (1) that OLS tends to consistently overestimate the number of families in the tail, and (2) that the overestimation can have serious implications for hypothesis testing.     

A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

Book reviews

Peter Edwards with Gregory Pemberton. Crises and Commitments: The Politics and Diplomacy of Australia's Involvement in Southeast Asian Conflicts 1948–1965. Sydney: Allen & Unwin, in association with the Australian War Memorial, 1992. xix + 515 pp. $45.00.

J.D.B. Miller and RJ. Vincent (eds). Order and Violence: Hedley Bull and International Relations. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1990. vii + 220 pp. $55.00.

Carl Bridge (ed.). Munich to Vietnam. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 1991. 237 pp. $24.95.

Gary Brown. Breaking the American Alliance. Canberra Papers on Strategy and Defence No.54, 1989. 171pp. $17.00.

G. Withers (ed.). Commonality and Difference: Australia and the United States. Australian Fulbright Papers No.1. Sydney: Allen & Unwin for the Australian‐American Educational Foundation, 1991. 138 pp. $19.95.

John S. Gibson. International Organizations, Constitutional Law and Human Rights. New York: Praeger, 1991. xvii + 265 pp. $US45.00.

J. Ronald Engel and Joan Gibb Engel (eds). Ethics of Environment and Development: Global Challenge and International Response. Tucson: University of Arizona Press, in association with the IUCN, 1990. xv + 264 pp. $US29.95 (cloth), $US14.95 (paper).

Stephen Ryan. Ethnic Conflict and International Relations. Aldershot: Dartmouth Publishing, 1991. xxviii + 200 pp. No price given.

K.M. de Silva and R.J. May (eds). Internationalization of Ethnic Conflicts. London: Pinter Publishers for International Centre for Ethnic Studies, Sri Lanka, 1991. x + 272 pp. $84.25.

Robert C.R. Siekmann. National Contingents in United Nations Peace‐Keeping Forces. Doedrecht: Martinus Nijhoff, 1991. xv + 229 pp. $US82.00.

Mara R. Bustelo and Philip Alston (eds). Whose New World Order? What Role for the United Nations? Leichhardt: The Federation Press, 1991. xiv + 157 pp. No price given.

H. Brauch and R. Kennedy (eds). Alternative Conventional Defense Postures in the European Theater: The Impact of Political Change on Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control. New York: Crane Russak; Basingstoke: Taylor and Francis, 1992. xxi + 279 pp. £35.00.

Robert F. Miller (ed.). The Development of Civil Society in Communist Systems. Sydney: Allen & Unwin, 1992. iv + 187 pp. $19.95.

David W. Hunter. Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union. An Interdependence Perspective on Sanctions. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1991. xii + 163 pp. £40.00.

Paul Hainsworth (ed.). Breaking and Preserving the Mould: The Third Direct Elections to the European Parliament (1989) — the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. Belfast and Coleraine: Policy Research Institute, The Queen's University of Belfast and the University of Ulster, 1992. v + 223pp. £9.95.

Yue‐man Yeung and Xu‐wei Hu (eds). China's Coastal Cities: Catalysts of Modernization. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1992. xvi + 330 pp. $US38.00 (cloth).

Freedom in Exile. The Autobiography of the Dalai Lama of Tibet. Cardinal Books, 1991. 308 pp.

Vo Nhan Tri. Vietnam's Economic Policy Since 1975. Singapore: Institute of South East Asian Studies, 1990. xi + 253 pp. $S42.50 (cloth), $S32.00 (paper).

Robert Hopkins Miller. The United States and Vietnam 1787–1941. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1990. ix + 234 pp. No price given.

Judith A. Stowe. Siam Becomes Thailand: A Story of Intrigue. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1991. xii + 394 pp. $US39.00 (cloth), $US16.95 (paper).

Salim Said. Genesis of Power. General Sudirman and the Indonesian Military in Politics 1945–49. North Sydney: Allen & Unwin, 1992. xxi + 185 pp. $24.95.

Burhan Magenda. East Kalimantan: The Decline of a Commercial Aristocracy. Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Cornell University, 1991. viii + 113 pp. $US11.00.

Khong Kim Hoong. Malaysia's General Election 1990: Continuity, Change and Ethnic Politics. Singapore: ISEAS, 1991. 54 pp. $US5.00.

Stephanie Lawson. The Failure of Democratic Politics in Fiji. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1991. vii + 307 pp. $90.00.

Asesela Ravuvu. The Facade of Democracy: Fijian Struggles for Political Control 1830–1987. Suva: Reader Publishing House, 1991. xii + 106 pp. $15.00.

William Sutherland. Beyond the Politics of Race. An Alternative History of Fiji to 1992. Political and Social Change Monograph No.15, Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University, 1992. vii + 251 pp. $16.00.

Sue Rabbitt Roff. Overreaching in Paradise: United States Policy in Palau since 1945. Juneau, Alaska: The Denali Press, 1991. ix + 245 pp. No price given.

Gary Smith. Micronesia: Decolonisation and US Military Interests in the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. Canberra: Peace Research Centre, Australian National University, 1991. ix + 131 pp. $12.00.

Robert Aldrich (ed.). France, Oceania and Australia: Past and Present. Department of Economic History, University of Sydney, 1991. 203 pp. No price given.

Stephen Henningham. France and the South Pacific; A Contemporary History. Sydney: Allen and Unwin,1992. xvii + 292 pp. $24.95.

R. Briscoe, G.S. Nair and A. Sibbald. Enterprise Support Organizations for the South Pacific: Problems and Proposals. Honolulu: Pacific Islands Development Program, East‐West Center, 1991. xi + 89 pp. $US8.00.

Euan Fleming and Hugh Coulter (eds). Agricultural Export Marketing in the South Pacific: The Future Role of Marketing Authorities. Canberra: National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, Pacific Policy Paper 8, 1992. xii + 255 pp. $25.00.

M. Thea Sinclair and M.J. Stabler (eds). The Tourism Industry: An International Analysis. Wallingford: C.A.B. International, 1991. xi + 244 pp. £30.00.

D. Harrison (ed.). Tourism and the Less Developed Countries. London: Belhaven Press, 1992. xiii + 186 pp. £35.00.     

Environmental response to land use at Lake Curlip,East Gippsland,Victoria

A palaeoecological approach was undertaken to investigate the last 400 years of change in vegetation, fire, nutrient mobility, lake productivity and erosion associated with Aboriginal and European land-use practices in a forested environment in eastern Victoria. Melaleuca ericifolia scrub, although present prior to European settlement, has expanded around Lake Curlip in the last 200 years, primarily due to the action of fire on a forest already weakened by drought. A fern understorey has declined in extent and a more open aspect has developed in the forest. Fire has been a major component of vegetation dynamics in the historical period. Erosion rates were comparatively low and associated with fire during prehistoric times, but after European settlement its increase is more closely related to land clearance and flooding than fire. The response of vegetation to both anthropogenic and natural influences changed during the historical period. Although fire is an integral part of vegetation change, it is not an over-riding effect at Lake Curlip. Drain construction in the swamp has reduced the impact that any accumulation of pasture improvement chemicals may have had on eutrophication of the lake.     

AN ARCHAEOMETRIC STUDY OF MEDIEVAL GLASS FROM THE FIRST BULGARIAN CAPITAL,PLISKA (NINTH TO TENTH CENTURY AD)

Glass finds from the first Bulgarian capital, Pliska, have been analysed by instrumental neutron activation analysis. The analytical data, together with previous results from analysis of glass samples from the second Bulgarian capital, Preslav, were subjected to cluster and discriminant analysis. The local origin of part of the analysed samples was proven and some conclusions about the technology of production were possible.