Some Notes on Parametric Significance Tests for Geographically Weighted Regression

The technique of geographically weighted regression (GWR) is used to model spatial 'drift' in linear model coefficients. In this paper we extend the ideas of GWR in a number of ways. First, we introduce a set of analytically derived significance tests allowing a null hypothesis of no spatial parameter drift to be investigated. Second, we discuss 'mixed' GWR models where some parameters are fixed globally but others vary geographically. Again, models of this type may be assessed using significance tests. Finally, we consider a means of deciding the degree of parameter smoothing used in GWR based on the Mallows C_p statistic. To complete the paper, we analyze an example data set based on house prices in Kent in the U.K. using the techniques introduced.     

Politics and Economic Development: Why Governments Adopt Different Strategies to Induce Economic Growth

This article assesses the forces that drive governments to engage in economic development activity and attempts to explain why communities adopt different strategies to bring about the common goal of economic well-being. I address this issue at the state policy level by assessing the relationship between economic development strategy and theories of policy adoption in a pooled times series analysis using indicators of interstate competition, fiscal stress, and state ideology collected between 1983 and 1994. I find that economic development strategy choices are largely a function of interjurisdictional competition. The implications of my findings are discussed.     

Über die Notwendigkeit einer umfassenden Verkehrssystembewertung

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Histoire et théorie du hasard à l'âge classique selon cournot

In a decisive article about the birth of the calculus of probabilities (1970), Ernest Coumet recalled Cournot's formula: the delay concerning the birth of the theory of chance is «a pure effect of chance». We suggest here submitting this judgement to the critical examination not of history but of Cournot's very thought; his philosophy of history and his representation of the history of science in the xvii^th century seems, at first, to denounce beforehand such a decisive judgement. To render an account of what can then appear on his part to be an inconsistency or even a blindness, we formulate the hypothesis that this statement constitutes an artefact of his internal conception of the history of science and scientific revolutions. In that sense, the article constitutes an illustration of theoretical necessity and of the difficulties of mathematical history as well.     

Avoiding Disaster: Diversification and Risk Management among East African Herders

This article addresses processes of livelihood diversification among pastoralists in the rangelands of northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. The objectives of the article are threefold: (1) to suggest a theoretical framework for addressing income diversification among pastoralists with reference to current literature and databases; (2) to present a case study on pastoral income diversification based on preliminary field research in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia; and (3) to summarize current understandings of pastoral diversification while pointing to additional empirical research needs. By showing how comparative analyses in the region have been constrained by theoretical and data deficiencies, the article explores ways in which income diversification differs by what are termed conditional, opportunity, and local response variables. Climate, distance to market towns, gender, wealth, and education are attributes covered by these variables and discussed in the article. The conceptualization and case study provide useful bases for conducting comparative research on pastoral diversification in East Africa specifically, and in sub‐Saharan Africa generally.     

Marxism and bureaucracy: A paradox resolved

This article describes one apparently paradoxical course of development of the concept of bureaucracy within Marxism. The paradox has to do with the striking difference between the role attributed to bureaucrats by Marx and by a number of prominent members of the heretics from the Marxist tradition. In Marx's own analysis of contemporary societies, bureaucracies were rarely given a central and never a primary role. In his portrayal of the future society, bureaucrats were swept from the stage altogether. In the writings of Trotsky and theorists of a new bureaucratic class, bureaucrats have come to play a central and ultimately the central role. The argument of the article is that both elements of the paradox stem from precisely the same set of theoretical commitments, in particular the same combination of claims as to what the fundamental activities and actors in societies are, what are the dynamic forces in societies and what is the destination of modern societies. Notwithstanding serious and much‐debated differences between them, what these theories have in common lies deeper than anything on which they disagree. The article concludes by arguing that neither of these approaches is likely to lead to successful analyses of the place of bureaucrats in modern societies.