USING A COMPOSED ERROR MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE FRICTIONAL AND EXCESS-SUPPLY COMPONENTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT

ABSTRACT We present in this paper a plausible and simple method of estimating the two components (frictional and excess supply) of unemployment. This approach uses a stochastic model whose error term is composed of two elements–the usual two-sided error and a one-sided error. Our method has several strengths. First, we are able to explicitly model the universally held view that there is a nonzero lower bound on unemployment. Second, we can easily determine whether each region's unemployment rate is caused primarily by excess supply or frictional forces. We illustrate our technique on a data set comprised of all 50 states over the period 1960-1979. Finally, estimation of the frictional rates of unemployment allows us to analyze, in the last part of the paper, the underlying economic and demographic determinants of differences in frictional unemployment rates across states and over time.     

Mr. Ely’s amendment: Massachusetts Federalists and the politicization of slave representation

Responding to state electoral losses in 1804, Massachusetts Federalists vehemently pursued an antislavery measure called the Ely amendment, which sought to end the three-fifths clause. Despite failure to pass the Ely amendment, opposition to the three-fifths compromise became central to Federalist politics through the Missouri crisis in 1820. Federalists participating in the Missouri debates chose to let Republican politicians lead the opposition to slavery’s expansion after putting forth their critique of the three-fifths clause. Yet Federalists’ repeated attempts to pass the Ely amendment ensured that a generation of Massachusetts citizens connected the three-fifths clause with southern domination.     

Fox Palaces: the playful occupation of a Johannesburg city park

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the playful occupation of an inner-city park in Johannesburg, South Africa, by the Hummingbird Play Association. Playful occupation emerged as a strategy to create and demand spaces for children’s play, demonstrating through practice the possibilities for public play provision. Children’s play is read as a form of folklore, through which children’s and adult’s spatial experiences and imaginings of the city can be viewed. It considers how opportunities for play facilitated with Playwork Principles in mind can co-create safe spaces for children which could act as tools for social transformation and justice in the urban public realm.     

Ecological Contingency Accounts for Earliest Seagoing in the Western Pacific Ocean

Seagoing at 1 mya to Flores, and sea gaps of >50 km crossed by 47 kya to Sahul, are evidence of earlier maritime migration in the western Pacific than anywhere else. Current opinion attributes the latter to the influence of anatomically modern human cultural complexity on seagoing technology and practice, together with the impetus of serial resource depression. It is argued here that seagoing was unusually advantaged in the western Pacific by a fortuitous conjunction of the warmest seas with a ready availability of large-diameter bamboo that occurred as natural rafts, and which could also be constructed into rafts large enough to transport viable colonizing groups from island to island across Wallacea to Sahul. The geography of Wallacea allowed migration solely by drifting, and exploratory landscape learning might have produced landfalls on Sahul sooner than is implied by subsistence forcing of mobility. Seagoing by drifting raft was much harder from Sahul to the east because of the virtual absence of large-diameter bamboo and longer distance to fewer or small islands; colonization occurred much later.     

Beyond NIMBY

Using survey data, this study tests competing hypotheses about the nature of opposition to a hazardous waste incinerator. Using a multivariate model, we challenge some of the basic assumptions of the Not In My Backyard (NIMBY) label typically used to characterize opposition. We find little evidence for components of the NIMBY label such as concern about property values and aesthetics, but find instead that opposition is related primarily to trust in government, fear of health consequences, and other ideological or demographic factors. We conclude with a discussion urging facility proponents to gain a better understanding of the nature of opposition and of the complexities of public opinion.     

Book reviews

The Regions and the New Europe: Patterns in Core and Periphery Development. Martin Rhodes (Ed.). Manchester and New York Manchester University Press, 1995, xiv + 359 pp, £45.00 hb, ISBN 0 7190 4251 8

Kurswechsel in der Industrie: Lean Production in Baden‐Wurttemberg (Change of Course in Industry). Hans‐Joachim Braczyk and Gerd Schienstock (Eds). Stuttgart, Berlin, Koln: Verlag W. Kohlhammer, 1996, 356pp, DM98.00 (£43.00), ISBN 3 17 014004 3

Regions and Environment in Transition: in Search of New Solutions. Markku Sotarauta and Jarmo Vehmas (Eds). Tampere: University of Tampere, Department of Regional Studies, Research Reports, Series A 16, 1995, 232 pp, 90 FIM, £12.42, ECU15.52, ISBN 951 44 3804 3 (Obtainable from University of Tampere/Sales office, PO Box 617, FIN‐33101 Tampere, Finland, Tel. + 358 31 215 6055, Fax. +358 31 215 7150.)

Postmodern Semiotics: Material Culture and the Forms of Postmodern Life. M. Gottdiener. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1995, 262 pp, £13.99 pb, £45.00 hb, ISBN 0 631 19215 8 pb/O 631 19216 6 hb

Urban Policy in Britain: the City, the State and the Market. Rob Atkinson and Graham Moon. London: Macmillan Press, 1994, 306 pp, £13.50 phi£40.00 hb, ISBN 0 333 56747 1 pb/0333 567463 hb     

The Protestant Work Ethic and the Australian Mercantile Elite, 1880–1914

This article tests, in the Australian context, Max Weber's thesis that the work ethic of capitalism owed its origins to Protestantism. It studies the Australian Protestant churches for the presence of a work ethic, and investigates whether the Catholic Church also promoted such a moral precept to its members. The study then examines whether the work ethic of the Australian mercantile elite was drawn from that of the Protestant churches, from which most of its members came. The article proceeds to describe how the mercantile elite removed the religious origins of the work ethic and made it one of the foundations of its creed of economic individualism. This creed was based on the self-righteous dogma that those who worked hard were rewarded by getting rich while those who were poor only had their own lack of hard work and thrift to blame. The article demonstrates that the work ethic of modern capitalism, as espoused by the Australian mercantile elite, was the result of the secularization of the work ethic of Protestantism, a process in which the religious content of the moral principle was removed.     

A battle in the Bush: Some lessons from liberal‐national rivalry in Warrnambool

An intriguing aspect of rural Australian politics has been the occasional capacity of one of the conservative parties to make sudden, substantial electoral gains at the other's expense. C.A. Hughes (1985:53) has suggested that, in order to understand Liberal‐National rivalry, we ought not dwell upon demographic variables but need undertake detailed electoral studies and draw out the importance of ‘the personalities and local popularity of candidates’. Such a micro‐level of political examination, he laments, is rarely attempted in Australia. Ours is a micro‐level study of the one‐time safe Liberal Victorian state seat of Warrnambool in which, in recent elections (1985 and 1988), the National Party has decisively wrested control. Certainly the local popularity of the National Party candidates contributed in no small way to the switch in conservative allegiance which has occurred in Warrnambool. However, contra Hughes, we also identify an important demographic explanatory variable in Catholicism.