Vector-valued Intensity Measures Incorporating Spectral Shape For Prediction of Structural Response

Vector-valued ground motion intensity measures (IMs) are developed and considered for efficiently predicting structural response. The primary IM considered consists of spectral acceleration at the first-mode structural period along with a measure of spectral shape which indicates the spectral acceleration value at a second period. For the IM to effectively predict response, this second period must be selected intelligently in order to capture the most relevant spectral shape properties. Two methods for identifying effective periods are proposed and used to investigate IMs for example structures, and an improvement in the efficiency of structural response predictions is shown. A method is presented for predicting the probability distribution of structural response using a vector IM while accounting for the effect of collapses. The ground motion parameter ε is also considered as part of a three-parameter vector. It is seen that although the spectral shape parameter increases the efficiency of response predictions, it does not fully account for the effect of ε. Thus, ε should still be accounted for in response prediction, either through informed record selection or by including ε in the vector of IM parameters.     

On the history and geography of the International Conference of Historical Geographers

The latest meeting in the series of International Conferences of Historical Geographers was held in Kyoto in 2009. The series originated in a meeting of Canadian and British historical geographers held in Kingston, Ontario, in 1975. Four subsequent meetings held in Britain, Canada and the USA saw an increasingly international participation and the sixth meeting, held in 1986, was accorded the title of the Sixth International Conference of Historical Geographers. Eight further such conferences have been held since then, some in locations well beyond Britain and North America. This paper records the basic historical and geographical characteristics of all of the meetings between 1975 and 2009.     

Anglo-Irish Relations, 1939-41: A Study in Multilateral Diplomacy and Military Restraint

‘This study bridges two gaps, one in the historiographyof Anglo-Irish relations between 1939 and 1941 and the otherin International Relations (IR) theory. Anglo-Irish relationsduring the Second World War have been the subject of numerousstudies focusing upon the bilateral nature of that relationship,but it was subject to serious multilateral considerations—theCommonwealth and the US. At moments of danger between the twostates, it was not the balance of a bilateral relationship,but rather of a broad multilateral structure which set the paceof British policy-making. This restrained British military planningagainst Eire. The history of Anglo-Irish relations in this periodpositively links the conduct of multilateral diplomacy withthe absence of the use of force. From the standpoint of IR theory,this provides a useful ‘hard’ case for how/why multilateralismmay matter. It also illustrates several of the deficienciesin IR theory, not least the Whiggish assumption that integrationor globalization follow a linear progression (against whichstands the equally Whiggish notion that interstate relationsare eternally cast). This article seeks to demonstrate thata somewhat wider appreciation of history makes it possible toreconcile multilateral diplomacy with many more traditional‘realist’ concerns.’     

The temper thing

Examines the tempers and uses of anger by various U.S. presidents, including Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, and Lyndon Johnson.     

Was Civil War surgery effective?

During the U.S. Civil War surgeons performed a vast number of surgeries. Whether surgery increased wounded soldiers’ chances of survival has been debated ever since. I analyze a unique observational data set gathered by Dr. Edmund Andrews, a surgeon with the 1st Illinois Light Artillery. I use Dr. Andrews’s data, model selection tools, and doubly robust estimation methods to estimate treatment effects from surgery. I find that surgery increased wounded soldiers’ chances of survival by 0.09–0.16, depending on the specific model of surgical procedure.     

Gender and candidate selection in a weakly institutionalised party system: the case of Samoa

Women’s political representation has historically been low in Samoa, as in much of the Pacific region. Candidate selection is viewed as a crucial factor in women’s under-representation globally. This article contends that the lack of formalised party selection processes sets Samoa apart from most other countries studied as part of the literature on gender and candidate selection. Yet, as this article shows, pre-selection processes exist at the village level, where a weak level of institutionalisation in the party system gives an inordinate amount of influence to local male gatekeepers. These processes are gendered, but can advantage female candidates that successfully navigate them. The extent to which these pre-election processes affect results depends largely on informal norms of group consensus within communities. This article looks at these processes in the context of the 2016 Samoan election, the first since a constitutional amendment mandating a minimum level of women’s representation in Parliament.