What Can Causal Process Tracing Offer to Policy Studies? A Review of the Literature

Causal process tracing (CPT) has emerged as an important method of causal inference in qualitative social science research, most notably in case study research designs. There is now a considerable literature on the aims, philosophical groundings, and methods of process tracing. This paper reviews the CPT literature to assess what new directions it may suggest for policy studies. The first part of the paper sets out the methodological advantages CPT offers in building and testing theories of policy change, most notably in supporting a theoretical pluralism to address the problem of complexity in policy studies. Building on recent scholarship across the social sciences, the second part examines step by step the recently minted “best practice” for undertaking CPT in policy studies. This part includes discussion of the possible pitfalls of CPT as a method; common errors involved in its use are set out and minimization strategies offered. In particular, while acknowledging the usefulness of Bayesian tests for causality as heuristic devices, we emphasize the limitations of applying such tests in practice. Possible correctives are suggested. The final part of the paper speculates more generally on the potential of CPT to improve our investigation of patterns of policy change over time.     

Coarse cloth and clerical tailoring: negotiating Boston-Irish cultural imperatives in the Famine era

Recent calls for updated approaches to the Irish-American historical experience recommend more systematic attention to complexities inherent in Irish immigration and settlement. They also seek further contextualisation of the history of the Irish in the USA within broader North American, transatlantic and global frameworks. The need to review and potentially reappraise longstanding, essentialist perspectives on Irish arrival and assimilation is equally evident. This article expands on foundational narrative histories of the Boston Irish to re-examine Famine-era settlement and contending agendas within spheres of religious affiliation and political activism. The character and evolution of Irish-American ethnic identity, and the tragic imprint of the Famine under consideration here pave the way for new readings of traditional orthodoxies. Collectively, they reveal Boston's Irish historical terrain to be more complex than the record currently suggests.     

Hunter–gatherer dispersals in the mammoth-steppe: technological provisioning and land-use in the Enisei River valley,south-central Siberia

Late Pleistocene Siberia was characterized by a unique mammoth-steppe biome. Two prevailing hypotheses exist to explain modern human dispersals in the Siberian mammoth-steppe. Upper Paleolithic human populations were either maintained continuously throughout the late Pleistocene or the peopling of this region resulted from multiple dispersal events. Past attempts at explaining the colonization process have resulted in culture-historical interpretations. This article uses lithic technological data from middle and late Upper Paleolithic sites in the Enisei River valley of south-central Siberia to explain human dispersals from a behavioral perspective. Technological provisioning and land-use strategies are reconstructed to help explain dispersal processes. Results of the study demonstrate that hunter–gatherers were using different adaptive strategies before and after the Last Glacial Maximum, indicating that multiple dispersal events shaped the peopling of Siberia.     

Experimental analysis of the practical limits of lithic refitting

We report on the results of an experiment aimed at determining the effects of experience/aptitude, lithic reduction type (biface v. core), and flake size cut-offs on different rates of success in refitting studies. We found that experience matters, but that there can be large differences in aptitude for refitting; that cores are easier to refit than bifaces; and that the effort of refitting increases considerably for flakes smaller than 5–6 g. We propose the use of an asymptotic equation fit to a cumulative curve as a way to determine when a study has reached the point of diminishing returns for a given flake size cut-off, and to help determine differences in aptitude for refitting.     

Western Australian electoral reforms: Labor finally succeeds

Australian electoral systems have a history of malapportionment, designed to give added voting weight to rural and remote areas. However, by 2000, all Australian jurisdictions except Western Australia had adopted voting equality within specified tolerances. This paper provides a brief analysis of the Gallop Labor government's efforts to reform the Western Australian system, drawing primarily on interviews with key players involved in the debates, including parliamentary members of the political parties involved. Quotations in this paper are drawn from these interviews, which were conducted in August 2004.     

Workers’ Compensation and State Employment Growth*

Abstract. Workers’ compensation reforms have been on the table in virtually every state over the last several years, and many states have launched comprehensive reforms. At least nine states undertook major reforms of their workers’ compensation systems in 2004 alone, and the reforms were driven largely by claims that higher workers’ compensation costs are driving away businesses and the employment that comes with them. This paper examines the relationship between workers’ compensation costs, as proxied by benefits/earnings, and employment across U.S. states and the District of Columbia from 1976 to 2000. Workers’ compensation costs are found to have a statistically significant negative impact on employment and wages, but the elasticities are very small, suggesting that workers’ compensation is not a likely cause of jobs woes in most states. Unemployment insurance appears to have an effect of similar magnitude. Medical cost inflation is found to be a significant factor in explaining movements in workers’ compensation costs over time.     

Reflections on the Latin American Contribution to Development Theory

ABSTRACT During the last decade a series of essays by prominent development theorists were published in which it was argued that development theory was in crisis. In my view the First World bias of development theory has contributed to its shortcomings. This bias is evidenced by the failure of development theory seriously to examine and incorporate into its mainstream the theories emanating from the Third World. In this paper I deal with the Latin American contribution to development theory. While development theorists have given some attention to dependency studies and structuralism, far too little appreciation has been given to the writings on marginality and internal colonialism. However, the significance of the structuralist school for development thinking and practice has yet to be fully acknowledged. Furthermore, dependency theory has been much distorted and key dependency writers have been completely ignored, especially in the Anglo-Saxon world. The following themes of the multi-stranded Latin American development school are examined: the debate on reform or revolution, the structuralist or centre-periphery paradigm, the analyses on internal colonialism and marginality, and the dependency studies. Wherever relevant the key differing positions within the Latin American school are presented. I then proceed to examine the shortcomings as well as the contemporary relevance of these Latin American theories of development and underdevelopment.