ANALYZING POLICY IMPACT: SELECTION OF A LINEAR TREND MODEL

Policy analysts, as well as politicians, have shown great interest in assessing both short-term and long-term consequences of public policies in recent years. Recent time-trend studies have attempted to depict the time dimension of policy consequences through extensions of regression techniques. This study examines three linear trend models which have been used to depict policy impact through time-series analyses, and identifies the relative advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of each model. The three models are applied in a quasi-experimental time-series design to time-series of per capita state expenditures for large cities, in eight states, over a twenty-year period. Differences in degrees of multicollinearity and autocorrelation inherent in the three models are discussed, and the model providing the most conservative coefficient estimates is identified.     

Understanding the historic legacies of empire from the timbers left behind: Towards critical dendroprovenancing in the British North Atlantic

The forests of British North America were integral to Britain's maritime empire. Many of these timbers exist today as wooden beams and flooring at historical dockyards and garrisons such as the Royal Naval Dockyard of Bermuda. In this paper, we investigate what timbers from this Dockyard can tell us about interconnections and empire-building throughout the North Atlantic region. To do this we drew from approaches of critical physical geography, historical geography, and dendroprovenancing by using timber as a way to interrogate collaboratively the changes in—and connections across—socio-ecological landscapes. We examined HM Customs records between 1825 and 1850 to determine the flow of timbers to Bermuda. We then sampled timbers from buildings constructed between 1825 and 1853 and analyzed them using isotopic and dendrochronological techniques to establish the probable location of origin of the timber samples. HM Customs records showed that prior to the 1840s, timbers primarily came from British North America, whereas post-1840 timbers primarily came from the southeastern United States, with some still coming from Europe and British North America. To establish whether timber use by the Royal Navy and Royal Engineers matched the pattern in the customs documents, we looked to the dendrochronological records. Dendrochronologic evidence showed that military construction followed the same pattern, with buildings constructed pre-1840 using material from British North America and buildings constructed post-1840 using timbers sourced from the southeastern United States. Finally, using this information we explore some of the connections between regions, in terms of resource use, and the implications of those uses—for example, that the British Admiralty continued to benefit from the practices of slavery through the use of products produced from enslaved labour in other parts of the North Atlantic well after emancipation.     

Buffon's Needle and the Probability of Intercepting Short-Distance Trips by Multiple Screen-Line Surveys

For transport planning purposes, information on origin-destination movements may be obtained by stopping traffic at the roadside and interviewing drivers. The roadside interview stations are usually located so that they lie on one of a number of lines (called screen lines) that cross from one side of the survey area to another. In this way, all movements with the origin on one side of a screen line and the destination on the other are intercepted. For regional surveys, a grid of screen-lines may be used. The movements intercepted are not, however, representative of all those in the region. That is because shorter-distance movements are underrepresented; the coarser the grid, the worse the effect. The extent of this underrepresentation is estimated in this paper by calculating the probability of intercepting a trip of given direct length, under the assumption that the screen lines constitute a uniform rectangular grid, and that trips of a given length are distributed over the region at random. The result is an extension to the Buffon needle problem. Ways in which such a result, obtained for an idealized situation, may be extended to apply to more realistic situations, are discussed: in particular it is shown how the trip-length frequency distribution of all trips may be estimated from that of intercepted trips, using a simple formula that is applicable to a much more general pattern of screen lines.     

Detecting Late Holocene cultural landscape modifications using LiDAR imagery in the Boreal Forest,Susitna Valley,Southcentral Alaska

The subarctic boreal forest, or taiga, is the largest biome in the world but has received minimal archaeological research because of its remoteness and difficult working conditions. In Southcentral Alaska the most common archaeological sites are surface manifestations of proto-historic semi-subterranean caches once used for food storage and living structures. However, in dense summer vegetation, these small-scale features are difficult to locate without high intensity pedestrian survey. To test the usefulness of LiDAR data for archaeological prospection in the taiga, we compare LiDAR imagery to the known distribution of small-scale semi-subterranean cultural features. The use of LiDAR, when complemented with Sky-View Factor, has proven valuable in identifying relatively small semi-subterranean features though it does not replace on-the-ground investigation. Nevertheless, the application of LiDAR to locate low density and small-scale cultural features is widely applicable across the subarctic in densely vegetated contexts and may assist in significantly expanding our current knowledge of land-use patterns and site distributions in logistically challenging places.     

Baudelaire's “Teacher”: Joseph de Maistre and Le Spleen de Paris

For a total of twenty years (1856–76), Gustave Flaubert corresponded with a woman whom he would never meet and who had first written to him to express her admiration for his novel, Madame Bovary. These forty-five letters are among the most fascinating and important that he was to write, reflecting on his life, on art and esthetics, and on his determined dedication to the practice of writing. The letters to Marie-Sophie Leroyer de Chantepie occupy a central role in Flaubert's Correspondence, between the long series of letters he wrote to two other women, Louise Colet and George Sand. They are all dominated by the idea of the centrality of art, literature, and the activity of writing, and of the subordinate status of all other experiences and interests.     

The Achill Yawl: vernacular boats in historical context on Achill Island,Ireland

Achill yawls, originally introduced to Ireland as ships' boats aboard Norwegian merchantmen, developed into distinct working vessels along Achill Island's shores during the 19th century. These boats were subsequently modified for recreational racing in the mid‐20th century. Despite changes to their design, they are often nostalgically viewed as traditional symbols of an Achill islander identity, though their popularity may have been prompted by late‐19th‐century British legislation. The authors take an ethnographic approach in interpreting Achill yawls over time, contextualizing their social functions through an exploration of primary historical and photographic archives, extant vessels, and interviews with Achill islanders. © 2010 The Authors