Geolocation and voting: Candidate–voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 UK general election in England

The effect of geographical distance between candidate and voter on vote-likelihood in the UK is essentially untested. In systems where constituency representatives vie for local inhabitants' support in elections, candidates living closer to a voter would be expected to have a greater probability of receiving that individual's support, other things being equal. In this paper, we present a first test of this concept using constituency data (specifically, notice of poll address data) from the British General Election of 2010 and the British Election Survey, together with geographical data from Ordnance Survey and Royal Mail, to test the hypothesis that candidate distance matters in voters' choice of candidate. Using a conditional logit model, we find that the distance between voter and candidates from the three main parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat) matters in English constituencies, even when controlling for strong predictors of vote choice, such as party feeling and incumbency advantage.     

唐十道演化新论

对唐代道的研究,代不乏人,但多囿于旧说,鲜有突破。本文引用新史料,并对旧史料加以比勘考证,在继承前人研究成果的基础上,对唐代道的演化提出了如下新观点:唐高宗永徽年间,已有十三道的区划;武则天当政时期,回复十道旧观;开元十七年(729年),正式形成十五部的规模;开元天宝之际,实有十六部;终唐之世,几乎没有"十五道"的说法,而是一直沿用"十道"通称。     

Design Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction for Perth Metropolitan Area with Microtremor Measurements for Site Characterization

Perth is the largest city in Western Australia and home to three-quarters of the state's residents. In recent decades, there have been a lot of earthquake activities just east of Perth in an area known as the South-West Seismic Zone. Previous numerical results of site response analyses based on limited available geology information for PMA indicated that Perth Basin might amplify the bedrock motion by more than 10 times at some frequencies and at some sites. Hence, more detailed studies on site characterization and amplification are necessary. The microtremor method using spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) processing is a useful tool for gaining thickness and shear wave velocity (SWV) of sediments and has been adopted in many previous studies. In this study, the response spectrum of rock site corresponding to the 475-year return period for PMA is defined according to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) based on the latest ground motion attenuation model of Southwest Western Australia. Site characterization in PMA is performed using two microtremor measurements, namely SPAC technique and H/V method. The clonal selection algorithm (CSA) is introduced to perform direct inversion of SPAC curves to determine the soil profiles of representative PMA sites investigated in this study. Using the simulated bedrock motion as input, the responses of the soil sites are estimated using numerical method based on the shear-wave velocity vs. depth profiles determined from the SPAC technique. The response spectrum of the earthquake ground motion on surface of each site is derived from the numerical results of the site response analysis, and compared with the respective design spectrum defined in the Australian Earthquake Loading Code. The comparison shows that the code spectra are conservative in the short period range, but may slightly underestimate the response spectrum at some long period range.     

Representation and identity ‐ convergence of brain research and mind‐brain philosophy

Abstract

The localization or representation of mental abilities in the brain have always been considered as key questions for understanding the organization of the human nervous system. Particularly with the advent of modern electrophysiological and imaging techniques that provide maps of electromagnetic fields and metabolic processes on the living central nervous system, the representation theory is experiencing a scientific renaissance in neurology, but is only one theory, however, in the succession of a long philosophical tradition dealing with the possible identification of mental phenomena and brain processes. This dichotomy was formulated at the latest in the Cartesian dualism of res cogitans and res extensa of the mind‐body problem. Nowadays philosophical discussion, on the contrary, is dominated by monistic concepts that attempt to explain the mental realm on an organic foundation in order not to succumb to the problem of a psychophysical dualism. Of these, the identity theory offers a philosophically plausible concept postulating that the identity of brain conditions and mental phenomena is based on organic foundations. In this theory, the efforts of brain research converge on the representations of mental phenomena in the human nervous system. In a comprehensive approach, both concepts could complement each other.     

改革开放以来晚清人物研究述评

改革开放以来,晚清人物研究呈现相当活跃的局面,在进行学术总结和反思的基础上,逐渐地进行范式的转换。在这个过程中,遵循实事求是的原则成为学界普遍的共识,但由于有关晚清人物的"实事"总和不易获得,而人物评价又受到各种因素的影响,学者们评价人物的具体方法也各不相同,因此,对晚清人物的评价出现了许多新的观点。对这些新观点不能笼统地以"翻案"说视之。     

《清代学者象传》传文史料考及其文献价值

<清代学者象传>第一集中的169人有传记,但一般人的主要兴趣偏重于其肖像,往往忽略这些传文,或为图像所掩,或为编著者叶衍兰之画名、词名所掩.其实此书作为一部如此规模图文并茂的传记文献非常稀见,为学人、读者带来了许多方便和可贵材料.如果可以更进一步地把握这些传文的文献价值,即可谓锦上添花,在实用性上又更上一层楼,把握其学术性.本文就是要通过近二百种史料文献之比对,考索<象传>诸传之资料来源及编著者的加工调整,从而评定其传文之文献价值.     

基于创业资源的会展经济效应作用机制多案例研究

会展产业的经济效应是会展研究领域的重要论题.本文在已有研究提出的理论模型的基础之上,从创业资源的需求和供给两方面,分别选取3家典型的创业企业作为需求方和1家会展企业作为供给方开展多案例研究并进行比较分析,验证得出基于创业资源的会展经济效应作用机制,并进一步揭示在这一作用过程中各种创业资源之间的互动关系.研究发现：会展活动在一定时间空间内集聚资源而产生供给,创业企业在开发创业机会的过程中受到高度的资源约束而产生需求,这种供需关系使得资源成为会展活动实现经济效应的传导手段,创业企业从会展活动中获得社会资源、技术资源、财务资源、组织资源、人力资源、物质资源等创业资源,其中社会资源和人力资源发挥了杠杆作用.     

St John's Ambulance Brigade and the Gendering of ‘Passive Defence’ in British Malaya, 1937–42

The St John's Ambulance Brigade established itself in British Malaya in the 1930s, as part of efforts to mobilise and train the colony's subjects for civil defence as the geo‐strategic climate in the Pacific deteriorated. This article demonstrates how the provision of emergency medical care was a gendered and racialised undertaking in the colonial context. Unlike the military, comprising mainly European and ‘trusted’ ethnic Indian soldiers, the realm of ‘passive defence’ was identified as a feminised undertaking for women and ethnic Chinese men who were considered to be either too vulnerable or too disloyal to bear arms. The rapid advance of Japan's military in south‐east Asia violently shattered such social boundaries, as many women and non‐European volunteers found themselves exposed by retreating Allied forces to the Japanese offensive and took up duties at posts from which their European supervisors had been forced to desert. Mainstream military historiography has often been highly gendered towards what is considered as the male‐dominated public domain of the battlefield. In this respect, the involvement of the St John's Ambulance Brigade reveals the process in which colonial ethno‐gender identities and hierarchies were being established, appropriated and subsequently subverted by the exigencies of the war in British Malaya.     

诚信在构建和谐社会中的作用

诚信是一个人生活在社会的必须品质,是整个社会良性运行和发展的必要因素。诚信对于社会主义和谐的构建意义重大,主要有三个方面:诚信是稳定当前良好的社会政治局面的必要举措,是推动社会生产力发展的内在动力,是形成良好的社会风气的根本源泉。     

基于城市社会地理学视角的农民工城镇化研究

农民工深度城镇化成为我国城市化发展、经济增长转型、社会稳定和可持续发展的重大课题。在总结、梳理国内外农民工城乡迁移与城镇化研究成果的基础上,认为在我国城市化转型发展背景下,基于城市社会地理学视角,以农民工城镇化进程中的个体微观行为特征研究为基础,研究农民工在区域认知、城镇化意愿与行为特征、城镇化格局与过程规律,建立农民工城镇化空间模型,可以揭示农民工个体微观行为下的城镇化进程与区域城镇体系规划的耦合关系;从城市生活空间与社会空间特征评价不同空间与行为模式下的农民工城镇化效率,可以提出效率导向下的农民工城镇化的空间结构与引导规划;基于空间公正理念,从城市公共产品与服务政策、资源可获性的城市社区规划等方面的创新,可以促进农民工公平、公正、有序、有尊严的城镇化进程。