THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL TAXES AND PUBLIC SERVICES ON RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS*

ABSTRACT. This paper incorporates an exogenous taxing and service-providing public sector into a dynamic residential land-use model in order to examine how local-government fiscal policies alter the pace and pattern of residential development. The model is used to derive the comparative-dynamic responses to variations in the income, sales, and property taxes and public-service time paths. The results show how tax and expenditure effects systematically depend upon the anticipated relative growth rates in rents to alternative uses and vary across locations within a given urban area as well as across urban areas themselves.     

MEASURING THE EFFECT OF COST VARIATION ON INDUSTRIAL OUTPUTS*

ABSTRACT. This paper introduces the household interactive variable input-output (HIVIO) model to measure the effect of cost variation on industrial outputs. The model produces a variety of cost elasticities that separate out impacts on industrial prices, imports, and outputs, with “own” and “cross” elasticity components. Like the conventional input-output multipliers, these cost elasticities can be useful parameters to evaluate the substituting behavior of firms and consumers. By using the 1980 Korean input-output transactions table, we find the wage and import price effects on industrial prices, outputs, and import demands.     

A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

Rational versus Heuristic Decision Making during Residential Search

The decisions of seventy household members during a residential search for a new home for owner-occupancy were measured in a search simulation game. Their decisions both to inquire about homes during the search, and to select a new home at the termination of the search, were more accurately predicted by a heuristic decision-making model than by a rational model.     

The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics

Introduced in this paper is a family of statistics, G, that can be used as a measure of spatial association in a number of circumstances. The basic statistic is derived, its properties are identified, and its advantages explained. Several of the G statistics make it possible to evaluate the spatial association of a variable within a specified distance of a single point. A comparison is made between a general G statistic and Moran's I for similar hypothetical and empirical conditions. The empirical work includes studies of sudden infant death syndrome by county in North Carolina and dwelling unit prices in metropolitan San Diego by zip-code districts. Results indicate that G statistics should be used in conjunction with I in order to identify characteristics of patterns not revealed by the I statistic alone and, specifically, the G_i and G_i* statistics enable us to detect local “pockets” of dependence that may not show up when using global statistics.