LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATES OF THE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER: AN APPRAISAL*

Basically, we have attempted to show the following in the course of setting out the algebra of regression analysis of selected regional employment multiplier models: (1) When the basic features of the model are shaped by the assumption of an unlagged response of local employment to changes in export employment, the least squares estimates of the multipliers are highly sensitive to the export coefficients vector A, given the sample observation matrix X. In a completely disaggregated model such as Equation (21), the multipliers are solely determined by the export coefficients and thus are entirely independent of sample observations. However, this independence does not hold in the case of a partially disaggregated model. The identity relation is also destroyed when a lag relationship is introduced into a completely disaggregated model. (2) A simple lag model produces results bascially different from those obtained by an unlagged model if the overall differences between current and lagged observations are significant. (3) Given a matrix of sample observations on employment, it is possible to estimate the upper limits of a least-squares aggregate multiplier and its variance simply from knowledge of the export coefficients (4) The export coefficients vector has also an important bearing upon the correlation coefficient. The correlation is unity if and only if the export coefficients vector is proportional to the local employment coefficients vector, while it is zero if and only if the export coefficients vector is a vector all of whose elements are one. Also, the correlation coefficient is equal to one when a completely disaggregated model is used. There is finally the question of what these results mean in terms of the formulation of a multiplier model. First of all, in view of the crucial importance of the export coefficients and the difficulties of estimating them, most of the existing models do not seem to offer promising results. Furthermore, all the models examined here have made some simplifying assumption with respect to the constancy of the export coefficients. It remains highly uncertain whether these coefficients are reasonably stable over time. Of course, it would be theoretically more acceptable to relax the assumption of the invariance of export coefficients and to obtain such coefficients at different points of time for each industry. However, this would be accomplished only at the cost of increased difficulties of estimating larger numbers of export coefficients. In addition, there is some doubt as to the validity of the assumption that export employment is proportional to export sales. Since a lag relationship is important not only in terms of attempts to formulate multiplier models more realistically, but also in terms of its significant effect on the multiplier values obtained, the nature and the form of a lagged response and its estimation problems need to be investigated in depth. Finally, problems of least squares bias and efficiency, inference, and prediction which may arise in the context of various models presented here remain to be investigated. A detailed analysis of such problems must be the subject of further investigation.     

Reviews

AUSTRALIA IN WORLD AFFAIRS 1956–1960. Gordon Greenwood and Norman Harper (eds.). For the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire, 1963. Pp. viii + 430. 63/‐.

AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE POLICY 1951–1963: MAJOR INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS. Sir Alan Watt. A.N.U. Department of International Relations: Working Paper no. 4. 1964. Pp. ii + 92. 10/‐.

THE DEBATABLE ALLIANCE: AN ESSAY IN ANGLO‐AMERICAN RELATIONS. Coral Bell. R.I.I.A., Chatham House Essays, no. 3, 1964. Pp. 130, Australian price 14/3.

SOUTH AFRICA AND THE UNITED NATIONS: MYTH AND REALITY. R. B. Ballinger. Johannesburg, The South African Institute of International Affairs, 1963. Pp. 32. 32 cents.

THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA AND THE HIGH COMMISSION TERRITORIES. Lord Hailey. London, Oxford University Press. Pp. viii + 136. Australian price 29/9d.

APARTHEID IN SOUTH AFRICA. New York, United Nations, 1963. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF RACIAL DISCRIMINATORY PRACTICES. New York, United Nations, 1963. Pp. 84. $1.00. STUDY OF DISCRIMINATION IN THE MATTER OF POLITICAL RIGHTS. New York, United Nations, 1962. Pp. viii + 105. $1.50.

STERLING IN THE SIXTIES. Christopher MoMahon. R.I.I.A., Chatham House Essays no. 4. London, Oxford University Press, 1964. Pp. vi + 118. Australian price 14/3.

INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY. Ian Shannon. Melbourne, P. W. Cheshire, 1964. Pp. 143. 21/‐.

IMPERIALISM. THE STORY AND SIGNIFICANCE OF A POLITICAL WORD, 1840–1860. R. Koebner and H. D. Schmidt. London, Cambridge University Press, 1964. Pp. xxvi + 432. £3/3/‐ stg.

SOCIALISM IN ONE COUNTRY 1924–1926. Volume Three, Parts I and II. E. H. Carr. London, Macmillan, 1964. Australian price 363/‐. THE RUSSIAN PEASANT MOVEMENT 1906–1917. Launcelot A. Owen. New York, Russell & Russell, 1963. $7.50.

THOUGHT AND BEHAVIOUR IN MODERN JAPANESE POLITICS. Mosao Maruyama. Edited by Ivan Morris. London, Oxford University Press, 1963. Pp. xx + 344. Australian price 68/‐.

THE CHINESE VIEW OF THEIR PLACE IN THE WORLD. C. P. Fitzgerald. R.I.I.A., Chatham House Essay No. 1. London, Oxford University Press, 1964. Pp. 72. Australian price 10/‐.

COMMUNISM IN NORTH VIETNAM. P. J. Honey. Cambridge, Mass., M.I.T. Press, 1963. Pp. xvi + 207. $4.95.

SOUTH‐EAST ASIA: A SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY. C. A. Fisher. London, Methuen, 1964. Pp. xix + 831. Maps. £4.4.0 sterling.

INDONESIA: PERSPECTIVES AND PROPOSALS FOR UNITED STATES ECONOMIC AID. Report to the President by the VS. Economic Survey Team to Indonesia. Yale University South East Asia Studies, 1963.

INDONESIA. Bruce Grant. Melbourne, Melbourne University Press, 1964. Pp. x + 190. 32/6d.     

Ability of students to recognize the relationship between using mobile apps for learning during fieldwork and the development of graduate attributes

The increasing importance of employability in Higher Education curricula and the prevalence of using mobile devices for field-based learning prompted an investigation into student awareness of the relationship between the use of mobile apps for learning and the development of graduate attributes (GAs) (and the link to employability). The results from post-fieldwork focus groups from four field courses indicated that students could make clear links between the use of a variety of mobile apps and graduate attribute development. The study suggests a number of mobile apps can align simultaneously with more than one graduate attribute. Furthermore, prior experience and the context of use can influence students’ perceptions of an app and its link with different GAs.     

Exploiting Sino-US Geostrategic Competition: The View from Seoul and Singapore

The mainstream literature on weak status quo states’ diplomacy tends to identify their regional security roles in terms of dealing with non-traditional security issues. This article argues that such a limited approach is not sufficient to explain the current security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific. This article reviews the literature on weak status quo states’ influence on regional order. It then identifies a security environment in which they are more likely to exert some impact on maintaining and building a regional order. After contextualising these discussions in the Asia-Pacific setting, the article examines the experience of South Korea and Singapore as secondary powers in the East Asian region. Although both countries enjoy high levels of security cooperation with the US, both have also been able to exercise a certain amount of influence in advancing their own geostrategic interests amidst the growing Sino-US geostrategic competition. Yet their exploitation of Sino-US geostrategic competition is neither a simple balancing strategy against China nor a simple bandwagoning with the US, since both South Korea and Singapore have been increasing bilateral and multilateral security cooperation with China.     

After ‘the collapse’: Strategic selectivity,Icelandic state elites and the management of European Union accession

Iceland’s 2008 financial crisis has received considerable scholarly attention from economics and business science perspectives. Far less consideration has been given to the political–administrative consequences of ‘the collapse’ in terms of its restructuring state-based projects and instituting new scalar strategies, and, specifically, the role played in this process by Icelandic political and policy elites. We focus on this issue by analyzing recent attempts to reconfigure Iceland’s sceptical position towards the EU by promulgating state narratives of ‘EUrope’ as a ‘safe haven’ for the shattered national economy as part of the country’s formal application for EU membership. We show within the Icelandic state there is, however, a highly fragmented and polarized position on EU accession. Drawing on Jessop’s strategic relational approach, we demonstrate that this derives from the actions of different elite fractions seeking to establish parameters for strategic selectivity on EU accession in ways that support their own interests. ‘EUrope’ emerges as a complex institutional category which is both shaped by, and shapes, the rhetorical interventions and actions of Icelandic state elites in often contradictory ways, demonstrating the fundamental political dynamics of what is emerging as a fraught, fiercely contested EU accession process. We conclude that times of conflicting elite narratives are also moments of potentially significant state change.     

Redescription of the Miocene penguin Pseudaptenodytes macraei Simpson (Aves: Sphenisciformes) and redefinition of the taxonomic status of ?Pseudaptenodytes minor Simpson

Pseudaptenodytes macraei is redescribed in detail using current avian anatomical terminology. The age of the species is constrained to the late Miocene, and two humeral autapomorphies are identified for the species: a flattened elliptical ventral portion of the fossa tricipitalis and a curved margo cranialis lacking a preaxial angle. Pseudaptenodytes macraei is a distinct taxon based on a diagnostic-type specimen, but it is recommended that the nominal congener Pseudaptenodytes minor be designated a nomen dubium pending the discovery of more complete material.