旅游目的地游客感知价值的层次关系模型

顾客价值被认为是竞争优势的新来源,目前旅游领域游客感知价值研究多将感知价值的各维度置于同一层次,这样不利于对游客感知价值概念的深刻理解,也不利于旅游业界从操作层面上提升游客感知价值。本研究基于"途径-目的"理论,使用回归分析方法检验了目的地属性层的价值维度与结果层价值维度的关系。结果表明,旅游者对目的地属性层的价值感知显著影响对结果层的价值感知,其中,景观/环境和成本属性是影响中国旅游者体验结果的主导性因素。     

卷轴书画折痕产生的原因及防治对策研究

卷轴是书画艺术的一种独特展示与收藏形式,卷轴书画画芯表面的折痕不仅影响展陈效果,而且降低了书画文物的保存寿命。为此,利用超景深显微镜和扫描电镜分析了卷轴书画折痕的微观结构,探讨了折痕产生的机理,并提出了相应的预防措施。结果表明:小直径收卷是书画产生折痕的重要原因之一;收卷直径越小,书画出现折痕的现象越明显。通过在地杆处加轴管以增大收卷直径,能够有效减少折痕和断裂的产生。该方法保持了中国传统卷轴书画的装裱形式,维持了书画的原貌,并能够有效保存书画展示的传统韵味。研究结果为探讨书画折痕产生的机理和防治对策研究提供科学依据。     

The Impossible Trinity: Inflation Targeting,Exchange Rate Management and Open Capital Accounts in Emerging Economies

This article contributes to the debate on macroeconomic management and capital account regulations in developing and emerging countries (DECs). It argues that the recommendation by neoclassical economists and international financial institutions (IFIs) to combine an inflation‐targeting regime with exchange rate management, whilst maintaining open capital accounts, is not only impossible but also potentially counterproductive. The article draws on extensive semi‐structured interviews with currency traders in Brazil and London to show that this is due to the particular way such a regime shapes central bank interventions in the money and foreign exchange markets and the destabilizing way these interventions interact with financial market expectations. The interview results also demonstrate that the guidelines issued by IFIs actually undermine, rather than aid, DEC central banks’ initial attempts to manage excessive exchange rate movements. These results support the long‐standing argument by heterodox economists and critical international political economists that DECs need to make the exchange rate an explicit instrument and goal of their macroeconomic policy and complement it with comprehensive capital account regulations to reduce the destabilizing impact of international capital flows. The interview results also give some concrete suggestions on how to achieve this.     

Economic effects of recent experiences of federalism: Analysis of the regionalization process in Spain

Setting limits on government action is critical to economic development. Some forms of government organization, such as market-preserving federalism, seem effective to protect property rights in the long term with good results for economic efficiency. Spain endowed its regions with “Statutes of Autonomy” in the 1980s thus moving from a centralized to a decentralized form of government. It renewed and expanded some of the statutes in the 2000s. This article investigates whether these two waves of regionalization, which had their own characteristics in each region, had led to positive effects on economic performance. Using a novel autonomous region/country-matched balanced sample for the period 1950–2016, we apply the synthetic control method and compare the economic growth trajectories of Spanish regions with their synthetic control groups not affected by the regionalization process. We show that the first wave of “Statutes of Autonomy” had a positive but temporary economic growth impact. By contrast, the second wave of regionalization of the 2000s is associated with a negative growth impact.     

The Neolithic Transition in the Iberian Peninsula: Data Analysis and Modeling

We apply GIS techniques to analyze a carefully selected database of 93 Early Neolithic sites in the Iberian Peninsula. This allows us to study the spatial dynamics of the Neolithic transition in Iberia. We study how the Neolithic was introduced into the peninsula in order to test the hypothesis that the Neolithic was introduced almost simultaneously from two sources: one at the northeast (via the Mediterranean coast) and another one at the south (possibly from Northern Africa). We also analyze how the expansion of the Neolithic transition took place within the Iberian Peninsula and measure local rates of spread in order to identify regions with fast and slow rates (such as the slowdown at the Cantabrian coast). In addition, we attempt to reproduce the main results obtained from the GIS analysis by applying reaction–dispersal models to the expansion of the Neolithic transition in the Iberian Peninsula. We conclude that a model with two sources is a reasonable assumption that agrees better with the archaeological data available at present than a model with a single source.     

Effects of episodic fluid flow on hydrocarbon migration in the Newport‐Inglewood Fault Zone,Southern California

Fault permeability may vary through time due to tectonic deformations, transients in pore pressure and effective stress, and mineralization associated with water‐rock reactions. Time‐varying permeability will affect subsurface fluid migration rates and patterns of petroleum accumulation in densely faulted sedimentary basins such as those associated with the borderland basins of Southern California. This study explores the petroleum fluid dynamics of this migration. As a multiphase flow and petroleum migration case study on the role of faults, computational models for both episodic and continuous hydrocarbon migration are constructed to investigate large‐scale fluid flow and petroleum accumulation along a northern section of the Newport‐Inglewood fault zone in the Los Angeles basin, Southern California. The numerical code solves the governing equations for oil, water, and heat transport in heterogeneous and anisotropic geologic cross sections but neglects flow in the third dimension for practical applications. Our numerical results suggest that fault permeability and fluid pressure fluctuations are crucial factors for distributing hydrocarbon accumulations associated with fault zones, and they also play important roles in controlling the geologic timing for reservoir filling. Episodic flow appears to enhance hydrocarbon accumulation more strongly by enabling stepwise build‐up in oil saturation in adjacent sedimentary formations due to temporally high pore pressure and high permeability caused by periodic fault rupture. Under assumptions that fault permeability fluctuate within the range of 1–1000 millidarcys (10^?15–10^?12 m²) and fault pressures fluctuate within 10–80% of overpressure ratio, the estimated oil volume in the Inglewood oil field (approximately 450 million barrels oil equivalent) can be accumulated in about 24 000 years, assuming a seismically induced fluid flow event occurs every 2000 years. This episodic petroleum migration model could be more geologically important than a continuous‐flow model, when considering the observed patterns of hydrocarbons and seismically active tectonic setting of the Los Angeles basin.     

Intervention publique sur le développement de grappes industrielles au Québec

This article describes the conditions for the development of four industrial clusters and the mechanisms of their integration in the regional economy. The case studies are the aerospace and apparel clusters in Montreal, and the agri‐food and marine science and technology clusters in the Lower St. Lawrence region. Clusters are defined as arrangements of businesses, government actors, public authorities, and local intermediary organizations in a local area. However, the study shows that clusters are based on actors and processes operating at different scales, from the local to the global. It also shows the importance of the sectoral leadership acknowledged by the different stakeholders.     

建立《山东省志》质量管理体系的探索与思考

第二轮修志如何落实《关于第二轮地方志书编纂的若干意见》和《地方志书质量规定》等文件提出的地方志工作质量和志书质量标准体系,成为史志工作者的紧要任务。山东省结合《山东省志》的编纂,就质量管理体系建设进行了探索和思考：一是树立全面质量管理理念,以质量第一为原则,指导全方位工作;二是建立健全质量管理组织机构体系,确保组织到位;三是制定全面的制度规范体系,提供制度保障;四是构建严格的质量监控体系,强化质量监督;五是加强队伍建设等,营造良好的质量保障机制;六是不断积累和总结,形成持续改进的质量管理机制。