中国省域旅游业竞争力综合定量评价

旅游业竞争力是包括现实竞争力、潜在竞争力、支持竞争力在内的综合概念。本文在总结前人研究成果的基础上,结合省域旅游业发展实际,构建出省域旅游业竞争力综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法计算出省域旅游业竞争力分值,进而结合聚类分析,探讨了我国省域旅游业竞争力的类型,客观分析了各省、市、区旅游业竞争优势与劣势,并就提升省域旅游业竞争力进行了思考。     

人工神经网络：一种新的旅游市场需求预测系统

本探究了人工神经网络(ANN)作为一种新型的预测系统在旅游市场需求研究中的重要性,并指出：在对旅游需求进行预测时,人工神经网络较之多元回归分析方法适用范围更广,显性更强。     

The Neolithic Transition in the Iberian Peninsula: Data Analysis and Modeling

We apply GIS techniques to analyze a carefully selected database of 93 Early Neolithic sites in the Iberian Peninsula. This allows us to study the spatial dynamics of the Neolithic transition in Iberia. We study how the Neolithic was introduced into the peninsula in order to test the hypothesis that the Neolithic was introduced almost simultaneously from two sources: one at the northeast (via the Mediterranean coast) and another one at the south (possibly from Northern Africa). We also analyze how the expansion of the Neolithic transition took place within the Iberian Peninsula and measure local rates of spread in order to identify regions with fast and slow rates (such as the slowdown at the Cantabrian coast). In addition, we attempt to reproduce the main results obtained from the GIS analysis by applying reaction–dispersal models to the expansion of the Neolithic transition in the Iberian Peninsula. We conclude that a model with two sources is a reasonable assumption that agrees better with the archaeological data available at present than a model with a single source.     

Intervention publique sur le développement de grappes industrielles au Québec

This article describes the conditions for the development of four industrial clusters and the mechanisms of their integration in the regional economy. The case studies are the aerospace and apparel clusters in Montreal, and the agri‐food and marine science and technology clusters in the Lower St. Lawrence region. Clusters are defined as arrangements of businesses, government actors, public authorities, and local intermediary organizations in a local area. However, the study shows that clusters are based on actors and processes operating at different scales, from the local to the global. It also shows the importance of the sectoral leadership acknowledged by the different stakeholders.     

建立《山东省志》质量管理体系的探索与思考

第二轮修志如何落实《关于第二轮地方志书编纂的若干意见》和《地方志书质量规定》等文件提出的地方志工作质量和志书质量标准体系,成为史志工作者的紧要任务。山东省结合《山东省志》的编纂,就质量管理体系建设进行了探索和思考：一是树立全面质量管理理念,以质量第一为原则,指导全方位工作;二是建立健全质量管理组织机构体系,确保组织到位;三是制定全面的制度规范体系,提供制度保障;四是构建严格的质量监控体系,强化质量监督;五是加强队伍建设等,营造良好的质量保障机制;六是不断积累和总结,形成持续改进的质量管理机制。     

Deportation Discretion: Tiered Influence,Minority Threat,and “Secure Communities” Deportations

As deportations from the United States rose to unprecedented levels, a nationwide immigration enforcement program Secure Communities helped identify deportable noncitizens under arrest in county jails. Examining county‐level variation in deportation activity between 2008 and 2013, this paper contributes to immigration policy research by examining how county officials in some locations facilitated exceptionally restrictive deportation outcomes while others exercised the discretion to turn noncitizens over for deportation sparingly. Consistent with a hypothesized “tiered influence” relationship, but contrary to a “racial threat” hypothesis, Hispanic concentration predicts the highest levels of exercised discretion where Hispanic concentration is neither too small nor too large. Noncitizens under arrest seem to have benefited from above‐average Hispanic concentrations, except in counties where Hispanics exceed about 40 percent of the population.     

Revolutionary versus Reactionary: Contrasting Portuguese and Spanish Civil-Military Relations during Democratisation

The military is an important factor for the success or failure of democratisation processes. Portugal and Spain provide two paradigmatic cases. Despite their socio-economic, political and cultural similarities, these countries developed very different civil-military relations which significantly impacted their transitions. After having handed power over to a civilian dictator, Salazar, the Portuguese military eventually caused the downfall of his authoritarian Estado Novo regime and steered the transition to democracy. In contrast, the Spanish military, which had helped Franco defeat the Second Republic, remained loyal to the dictator’s principles and, after his death, obstructed the democratisation process. Drawing on primary and secondary sources, this interdisciplinary article contrasts the challenges posed by the military and the policies implemented by the Iberian governments to depoliticise and control it. It shows that the failed coups d’état in these countries helped tighten civilian control and paved the way for democratic consolidation. Using a policy instruments comparative framework, this paper demonstrates that not only the attitudes of the military but also the tools used to keep them under control were substantially different in Portugal and Spain. Historical legacies from the Spanish Civil War, Second World War and Colonial conflicts, as well as contextual factors, serve to explain this variation.     

Wave Hindcasting and Anchoring Activities in Ancient Harbours: The Impact of Coastal Dynamics on Ancient Carthago Nova (Cartagena,Spain)

Journal of Maritime Archaeology - This study analyses nautical harbour activities and their spatial distribution using a high-resolution method of wind-wave hindcasting, in order to identify the...     

清理与重构:吕思勉的神话研究

上古史是中国近代历史学的重要研究对象,有关上古神话的研究更引起了广泛关注。吕思勉利用文献考据、社会从低级到高级的发展规律及“统属思维”塑造的“同质人类群体”的概念,对上古神话进行清理和重构,形成了区别于传统的新解释,并尝试以此取代传统思想中有关上古神话的“旧常识”。这种新旧知识迭代背后隐藏着吕思勉以“统属性思维”取代“关联性思维”的研究理路,是近代新史学打造学科话语体系的尝试,也彰显出历史学家普遍面对的“当下主义”的困境,以及这种困境对于历史知识迭代的意义。