Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

A PRACTICAL NOTE ON THE NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC-BASE MARGINAL MULTIPLIER*

Computation and usage of my neoclassical economic-base marginal multiplier formula (Merrifield, 1987) is simplified. The note points out the economic parameters that must be estimated with some care and for which rough approximations suffice. It also indicates when the size of the multiplier will be significantly affected by the source of the exogenous stimulus (factor- or output-price change). The traditional bifurcation effort must be supplemented with careful estimates of only a small subset of the other parameters. For most of the simulated parameter combinations, the multiplier based on exogenous factor-price changes differed from the multiplier based on output-price changes by less than 10 percent.     

WOMEN'S FACIAL TATTOOING AMONG THE MAISIN OF ORO PROVINCE,PAPUA NEW GUINEA: THE CHANGING SIGNIFICANCE OF AN ANCIENT CUSTOM

The Maisin women of northeastern Papua New Guinea are among the last coastal Papuans to tattoo their faces. This article first describes the techniques and social process of Maisin tattooing. We then examine the resilience of the custom in light of changes in puberty rites and notions of gender. We argue that these contexts have lost their cultural salience as a result of the Maisins' incorporation into the larger Papua New Guinea society. Tattooing has acquired new significance as a marker of cultural identity in a multicultural setting and as a sign of the Maisin people's commercial success as makers of indigenous art.     

A long revolution: Writing the political history of Queensland regimes

Peter Coaldrake, Working the System: Government in Queensland. University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.l85.$12.95 (paper)

Phil Dickie, The Road to Fitzgerald: Revelations of Corruption Spanning Four Decades, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1988. pp.293. $9.95 (paper); second edition, The Road to Fitzgerald ana Beyond, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.337. $12.95 (paper)

Evan Whitton, The Hillbilly Dictator: Australia's Police State, Australian Broadcasting Corporation Enterprises, Crows Nest, NSW, 1989, pp. 197. $16.99 (paper)

Ross Fitzgerald and Harold Thornton, Labor in Queensland: From the 1880s to 1988. University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.422. $34.95 (paper)

Peter Charlton, State of Mind: Why Queensland is Different, Methuen Haynes, North Ryde, second edition 1987, pp. 263. $12.95 (paper)     

城乡结合部人居环境与经济协调发展分析——以北京市朝阳区为例

疏解非首都功能背景下,北京市的城乡结合部面临调整经济结构与改善人居环境的机遇和挑战。本文以朝阳区为例,结合定量分析与定性讨论,聚焦人居环境与经济系统的协调性问题,剖析协调水平变化的时空间特征及原因。研究发现：2010—2019年期间,朝阳区城乡结合部人居环境与经济系统的协调水平上升明显,空间均衡性有所提升,协调状态呈现出从人居环境滞后过渡到经济系统滞后的演变过程。疏解非首都功能及相关政策是影响协调状态演变的重要因素,它提高了人居环境质量,引发了经济系统的动态调整,短期内使协调水平发生了较大波动,随着人居环境改善幅度逐渐超过经济系统,协调水平出现了下降趋势。提高城乡结合部的可持续发展能力,应重点关注人居环境与经济系统的协调性问题,兼顾地区人居环境改善与经济发展的需求。     

政策转变还是策略调整?——艾森豪威尔政府"解除台湾中立化"论析

1953年2月,艾森豪威尔对国会关于国情咨文的年度致辞中提出第七舰队要改变在台湾海峡的任务,从阻止海峡两岸的军事行动变为不再"遮掩"中国大陆.此语被视为"解除台湾中立化"的开始.不少研究据此认为新上台的共和党政府改变了对台政策,"放蒋出笼",台美关系由此进入"蜜月期".实际上,这一声明是形势发展的必然结果,是美国企图震慑、牵制中共之举,面上有"放蒋出笼"之势,内里却无"放蒋出笼"之实.在美国是否准备掩护台湾军队反攻大陆、是否封锁中国大陆全部海岸、是否对台扩大美援范围和种类等问题上,台美间无法形成共识.美政府以战斗机的交付为筹码,压迫台湾当局正式承诺不改变对大陆军事活动的"模式和节奏",重要军事行动前要征询美国.台湾"中立化"解而不除,美国对台湾的缰绳更加收紧,艾森豪威尔政府"解除台湾中立化"并非一次政策转变.     

Orientalism Reconsidered: Peter Duignan,Lewis Gann,Edward Said,and the Rebirth of Imperialism

Book reviewed in this article: culture and Imperialism: Edward W. Said The Rebirth of the West: Culture, Politics and Society 7 945–1958: Peter Duignan and L. H. Gann     

Contextualizing Welfare's Work Disincentive: The Case of Female-headed Family Poverty

The conventional model of the relationship between welfare incentives and poverty rates holds that welfare payments produce an income-enhancement effect that removes families from poverty until some threshold. Beyond this point increased payments engender a work-disincentive effect resulting in increased rates of poverty. We challenge the model's assumption that poverty levels are a simple and spatially invariant response to welfare incentives, contending instead that local employment conditions may substantially alter the relation. Our reformulation of the conventional modeling approach is based on the expansion method. Specifically, we extend the model to include the effects of local labor-market conditions on the response of poverty levels to welfare incentives. In contesting the invariance assumption, the expansion method allows us to determine where and in what contexts welfare is “work discouraging.” The empirical analysis, which is undertaken at the county level, indicates that welfare payments vary in their influence on poverty rates across different employment contexts. A national map portraying this parameter instability demonstrates that female-family poverty rates are most responsive to welfare assistance in the rural South and least responsive in the metropolitan Northeast. Finally, we examine two sharply contrasting locales to illustrate how poverty is governed by specific employment and welfare characteristics.     

Book reviews

Walker Connor. Ethnonationalism. The Quest for Understanding. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. xiii + 234 pp. No price given.

Elie Kedourie. Nationalism. Fourth, expanded edition. Oxford: Blackwell, 1993. xxi + 154 pp. $32.95 (paper).

Thomas Hylland Eriksen. Ethnicity and Nationalism. Anthropological Perspectives. London: Pluto Press, 1993. ix + 179 pp. £25.00 (cloth), £9.95 (paper).

David Brown. The State and Ethnic Politics in Southeast Asia. London: Routledge, 1994. xxi + 354 pp.

Ted Robert Gurr. Minorities at Risk. A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993. xii + 427 pp. $US37.50 (cloth), $US24.95 (paper).

Guntram F.A. Werther. Self‐Determination in Western Democracies. Aboriginal Politics in a Comparative Perspective. Westport: Greenwood Press, 1992. xxxvi + 113 pp. $US43.00 (cloth).

Morton H. Halpern and David J. Scheffer with Patricia L. Small. Self‐Determination in the New World Order. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1992. xiv + 178 pp. No price given.

Kamal S. Shehadi. Ethnic Self‐Determination and the Break‐up of States. Adelphi Paper 283. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1993. 90 pp. £10.00 (paper).

Miron Rezun (ed.). Nationalism and the Breakup of an Empire: Russia and its Periphery. Westport: Praeger, 1992. x + 197 pp. US$42.95 (cloth).

Garry Tompf (ed.) Islands and Enclaves. Nationalisms and Separatist Pressures in Islands and Littoral Contexts. New Delhi: Sterling Publishers Private Ltd, 1993. xxxv + 379 pp. No price given.

David Little. Sri Lanka. The Invention of Enmity. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1994. xxxviii + 175 pp. $US14.95 (paper).

Ralph R. Premdas. Ethnicity and Development: The Case of Fiji. United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, DP46, 1993. 50 pp. No price given.

P.J. Boyce and J.R. Angel (eds). Diplomacy in the Marketplace: Australia in World Affairs 1981–90. Melbourne: Longman Cheshire, 1992. xi + 330 pp. $26.50 (paper).

Jim George. Discourses of Global Politics: A Critical (Re)Introduction to International Relations. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. xi + 265pp. $US45.00 (cloth), $US18.95 (paper).

Claire T. Sjolander and Wayne Cox (eds). Beyond Positivism: Critical Reflections on International Relations. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. x + 203 pp. $US35.00 (cloth).

Lawrence Freedman, Paul Hayes and Robert O'Neill (eds). War, Strategy and International Politics: Essays in Honour of Sir Michael Howard. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992. xi + 322 pp. No price given.

Craig N. Murphy and Roger Tooze (eds). The New International Political Economy. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1991. vii + 237 pp. $US33.00 (cloth), $US15.95 (paper).

Hugh Smith (ed.). Peacekeeping, Challenges for the Future. Canberra: Australian Defence Studies Centre, Australian Defence Force Academy, 1993. xiv + 229 pp. $20.00 (paper).

Gary T. Gardner. Nuclear Nonproliferation: A Primer. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. xiii + 141 pp. $US25.00 (cloth), $US10.95 (paper).

Jack Donnelly. International Human Rights. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993. xvi + 206 pp. $US39.95 (cloth), $US12.95 (paper).

Luther Martin (ed.). Religious Transformations and Socio‐Political Change: Eastern Europe and Latin America. Berlin: Moutonde Gruyter, 1993. xiv + 457 pp. DM198.00 (cloth).

Bronislaw Misztal and Anson Shupe (eds). Religion and Politics in Comparative Perspective: Revival of Religious Fundamentalism in East and West. Westport: Praeger, 1992. xii + 223 pp. $US45.00 (cloth).

Jeff Hayes. Religion in Third World Politics. Buckingham: Open University Press, 1993. ix + 166 pp. $39.95 (paper).

John Francis. The Politics of Regulation: A Comparative Perspective. Oxford: Blackwell, 1993. xi + 289 pp. $45.00 (paper).

Philip Bell and Roger Bell. Implicated: The United States in Australia. Melbourne: Oxford University Press, 1993. xii + 220 pp. $19.95 (paper).

Stephen E. Ambrose. Rise to Globalism: American Foreign Policy Since 1938. 7th revised edition. New York: Penguin Books, 1993. xvi + 428 pp. $16.95 (paper).

Amos Kiewe (ed.). The Modern Presidency and Crisis Rhetoric. Westview: Praeger, 1994. xxxvii + 246 pp. $US55.00 (cloth).

Elizabeth Pond. Beyond the Wall: Germany's Road to Unification. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1993. xv + 367 pp. No price given

H.G. Peter Wallach and Ronald A. Francisco. United Germany: The Past, Politics, Prospects. Westport: Praeger, 1992. viii + 173 pp. $US45.00 (cloth), $US15.95 (paper).

Robert Zuzowski. Political Dissent and Opposition in Poland: The Workers’ Defense Committee “KOR”. Westport: Praeger, 1992. xii + 293 pp. $US65.00 (cloth).

Roger Kanet, Deborah Nutter Miner and Tamara J. Resler (eds). Soviet Foreign Policy in Transition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. xvi + 308 pp. $130.00 (cloth).

Chris Ward. Stalin's Russia. London: Edward Arnold, 1993. xxii + 241 pp. $32.95 (paper).

Dale F. Eickelman (ed.). Russia's Muslim Frontiers: New Directions in Cross‐Cultural Analysis. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1993. ix + 206 pp. $US29.95 (cloth), $US12.95 (paper).

Tom Rogers. The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Analysis and Chronology. Westport: Greenwood Press, 1992. 223 pp. $US55.00 (cloth).

Hirano Ken'ichiro (ed.). The State and Cultural Transformation. Perspectives from East Asia. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1993. xi + 357 pp. $50.00 (paper).

Trevor Findlay (ed.). Arms Control in the Post‐Cold War World: With Implications for Asia‐Pacific. Canberra: Peace Research Centre, Australian National University, 1993. ix + 328 pp. $20.00 (paper).

C. Inglis, S. Gunasekeran, G. Sullivan and C.‐T. Wu (eds). Asians in Australia: The Dynamics of Migration and Settlement. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992. xvi + 230 pp. $24.95 (paper).

Russell Trood (ed.). The Future Pacific Economic Order: Australia's Role. Brisbane: Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, in association with the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1993. xii + 123 pp. $16.00 (paper).

Edward J. Lincoln. Japan's New Global Role. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1993. xi + 320 pp. $US28.95 (cloth).

Joseph P. Keddell. The Politics of Defence in Japan. Managing Internal and External Pressures. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 1993. xvi + 236 pp. $US47.50 (cloth).

Ryutaro Hashimoto. Vision of Japan. A Realistic Direction for the 21st Century. Tokyo: Bestsellers, 1994. 183 pp. No price given.

Kataoka Tetsuya (ed.). Creating Single‐Party Democracy: Japan's Postwar Political System. Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1992. 173 pp. $US17.95 (paper).

Gary Klintworth (ed.). Taiwan in the Asia‐Pacific in the 1990s. Canberra: Allen & Unwin in association with the Department of International Relations, The Australian National University, 1994. xv + 291 pp. $24.95 (paper).

Harold Brookfield and Yvonne Byron (eds). South‐East Asia's Environmental Future: The Search for Sustainability. Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur: United Nations University Press/Oxford University Press, 1993. xxxi + 422 pp. $69.95 (cloth).

Ben Kiernan (ed.). Genocide and Democracy in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge, the United Nations and the International Community. New Haven: Yale University Southeast Asia Studies Monograph No.41, 1993. 335 pp. No price given.

Frank Frost. The Peace Process in Cambodia: Issues and Prospects. Australia‐Asia Papers No.69, Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, 1993. 63 pp. $10.00 (paper).

Pheuiphanh Ngaosyvathn. Strategic Partnership and International Partnership: Australia's Post‐1975 Relations with Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Australia‐Asia Papers No.68, Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, 1993. 60 pp. $10.00 (paper).

William S. Turley and Mark Selden (eds). Reinventing Vietnamese Socialism: Doi Moi in Comparative Perspective. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993. xiv + 368 pp. $US44.95 (cloth).

Frank Frost. Vietnam's Foreign Relations: Dynamics of Change. Pacific Strategic Papers No.6, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1993. 90 pp. $US9.99 (paper).

Michael Vatikiotis. Indonesian Politics under Suharto: Order, Development and Pressure for Change. London: Routledge, 1993. xix + 220 pp. £27.50 (cloth).

Michele Turner. Telling: East Timor: Personal Testimonies 1942–1992. Kensington: New South Wales University Press, 1992. xxii + 218 pp. $19.95 (paper).

R.W.L. Austin. In the Shadow of the Durian. Indonesia Observed. Australians in Asia Series, no.10, Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, Griffith University, 1993. 80 pp. $12.00 (paper).

Janet Hunt and Stephen Webb (eds). Aid for a Change: A Plan to Reshape Australia's Overseas Aid— To Tackle Poverty and Promote Sustainable Human Development. Canberra: Australian Council for Overseas Aid, Development Dossier No.31, 1992. x + 113 pp. $10.00 (paper).

S. Mahmud Ali. The Fearful State: Power, People and Internal War in South Asia. London: Zed Books, 1993. $US49.95 (cloth), $US22.50 (paper).

Nigel Worden. The Making of Modern South Africa — Conquest, Segregation and Apartheid. Oxford: Blackwell, 1994. 166 pp. $22.95 (paper).

Morris H. Morley. Washington, Somoza, and the Sandinistas: State and Regime in US Policy Toward Nicaragua, 1969–1981. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. 343 pp. $120.00 (cloth).

James Painter. Bolivia and Coca. A Study in Dependency. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994. xiv+l94 pp. $US35.00 (cloth).

Politics: Australia and the World Beyond the Headlines No.1. Sydney: Public Affairs Research Centre, University of Sydney, 1993. v + 264 pp. $19.95 (paper).

Hal Hill (ed.). Indonesia's New Order: The Dynamics of Socio‐Economic Transformation. St Leonards: Allen & Unwin, 1994. 364 pp. $29.95.