Markov Models of Inertia and Dynamism on Two Contiguous Ohio Landscapes

This study examined landcover change during 1940–1988 in two contiguous landscapes of approximately 12,400 hectares in central Ohio, USA: an inertial till plain area and a more dynamic moraine area. Agriculture dominated both landscapes throughout, however, the cover of natural vegetation and urban-suburban development increased over time on the moraine while natural vegetation decreased and agriculture increased on the till plain. Markov process models for landcover change were constructed for three 14–17-year time intervals and for the entire forty-eight-year study period. Probabilities of self-replacement for agricultural lands (0.91–0.97) were higher and those for forests (0.54–0.65) lower than those reported for other landscapes. Predictions of landcover percentages for fifty years in the future were made using Markov process models derived from actual cover changes in 1940–1957, 1971–1988, and 1940–1988. All three models produced similar predictions for the inertial till plain area. In contrast, the three models' predictions differed considerably for the moraine area. Only the 1971–1988 transition matrix was sensitive to increases in urbanization and reforestation which began on the moraine in the 1970s. These results indicate that reliance on lengthy study intervals and net rates of change can obscure spatial and temporal patterns of landcover change that are caused by natural and socioeconomic factors operating on shorter time scales.     

GRAVITY MODEL APPLICATIONS IN HEALTH PLANNING: ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN HOSPITAL MARKET*

ABSTRACT. In this paper a gravity model is formulated to model a hospital patient flow system. Both spatial and nonspatial measures of separation are used to estimate the model. Travel time was found to provide improved fits over linear distance in modeling patient flow behavior. Transformations of travel time (square root and log) were found to improve model performance further. Model diagnostics suggested additional spatial separation measurw, separation measure parameters demonstrated stability over time. The model is used to forecast the effects of health care financing reform and hospital closure on patient flows in an urban hospital market. Universal health coverage was found to dramatically improve access to hospital services for lower income patient populations. Hospitals at risk for closure were forecast to receive increased patient flows. Medical school hospitals are expected to lose patients after implementation of health reform, with important implications for graduate medical education. Hospital closures were shown to have negative effects on access to services in poor neighborhoods, but relatively little effect on access in the system as a whole.     

Book Reviews

Ken Booth and Steve Smith (eds), International Relations Theory Today, Cambridge: Polity Press, 1995. xii + 367pp. $39.95 (paper).

Christine Sylvester, Feminist Theory and International Relations in a Postmodern Era. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. xi + 265pp. $47.50 (paper).

Stephanie Lawson (ed.), The New Agenda for Global Security: Cooperating for Peace and Beyond. St. Leonards: Allen & Unwin/Department of International Relations, RSPAS, Australian National University, 1995. xi + 217pp. $24.95.

Anne O. Krueger, Economic Policies at Cross‐Purposes: The United States and Developing Countries. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1993. xii + 253pp. $US36.95 (cloth).

Robert L. Paarlberg, Leadership Abroad Begins at Home: U.S. Foreign Economic Policy After the Cold War. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995. xxv + 115pp. $US28.95 (cloth); $US10.95 (paper).

Tony Brenton, The Greening of Machiavelli: The Evolution of International Environmental Politics. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs/Earthscan, 1994. xvii + 282pp. $UK14.95 (paper).

John Charmley, Churchill's Grand Alliance: The Anglo‐American Special Relationship, 1940–1957. London: Hodder & Stoughton, 1995. xv + 427pp. $55.00 (cloth).

Victor A. Kremenyuk, Conflicts In and Around Russia. Nation‐Building in Difficult Times. Westport: Greenwood Press, 1994. xiv + 159pp. $US49.95 (cloth).

Alexander Johnston, Sipho Shezi and Gavin Bradshaw (eds), Constitution‐making in the New South Africa. London and New York: Leicester University Press, 1993. viii + 272pp. $UK 39.50.

Ramesh Thakur, The Politics and Economics of India's Foreign Policy. London: Hurst and Company; New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994. xi + 306pp. No price given.

Francis Seow, To Catch a Tartar: A Dissident in Lee Kuan Yew's Prison (with a foreword by C.V. Devan Nair). Yale Southeast Asia Studies Monograph 42, New Haven: Yale Centre for International and Area Studies, 1994. xxxiii + 293pp. $50.00 (paper).

Brij Lal, Robert Kiste and Kerry Howe (eds), The Tides of History: The Pacific Islands in the 20th Century. St Leonards: Allen & Unwin, 1994. xviii + 475pp. $34.95 (paper).

LaMond Tullis, Unintended Consequences—Illegal Drugs and Drug Policies in Nine Countries. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995. ix + 229pp. $US42.00 (cloth).

The United Nations and Cambodia 1991–1995, The United Nations Blue Books Series, Vol. II. New York: Department of Public Information, United Nations, 1995. 352pp. $US29.95 (paper).

‘Atu Emberson‐Bain (ed.), Sustainable Development or Malignant Growth? Perspectives of Pacific Island Women. Suva, Fiji: Marama Publications, 1994. 290pp. No price given.

Payam Akhavan and Robert Howse (eds), Yugoslavia, the Former and Future: Reflections by Scholars front the Region. Washington, DC and Geneva: The Brookings Institution and The United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 1995. xxviii + 188pp. $US32.95 (cloth) $US 12.95 (paper).

David Camroux, ‘Looking East’ . . . and Inwards: Internal Factors in Malaysian Foreign Relations during the Mahathir Era 1981–1994. Australia‐Asia Papers No. 72. Griffith University: Centre for the Study of Australia‐Asia Relations, 1994. iii + 62pp. $10.00.     

Transitional Hero: Gough Whitlam and the Australian Labor Party

This article is a contribution to the debate on the nature of the modern Labor Party and a commentary on the extensive literature which the debate has produced (see Warhurst 1994). An important element in this literature is the argument that the modern Labor Party, led by Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, is no longer the party it once was, but is fundamentally different in its policies, and that indeed in its very nature it is alien to Labor traditions (Maddox 1989; Jaensch 1989; Beilharz 1994). This line of argument has been called, by Rick Kuhn, the discontinuity thesis, and is now known as such (Kuhn 1992). Along with others, I am not convinced by this thesis but would rather emphasise the continuities in Labor experience. Like Hugh Emy I believe that 'The contrast between the two [Whitlam and Hawke] has been overdrawn'. (Emy 1993, p. 20)     

AGGREGATION ERROR EFFECTS ON THE DISCRETE-SPACE p-MEDIAN MODEL: THE CASE OF EDMONTON, CANADA

The spatial analysis literature recognizes three sources of aggregation error, termed Source A, Source B, and Source C, which affect models relying on distance measurements between populations and facilities. We consider these effects with respect to aggregating from census enumeration areas to census tracts, on a popular location model. We identify a further source of aggregation error, which we dub Source D error, arising from the representation of facility sites by discrete points. Source D effects are of the same magnitude as Source A and B combined, much greater than Source C effects. Source D error is further significant, because, unlike Source A and B error, it can be eliminated only by disaggregating .
La littérature sur Vanalyse spatiale reconnaît trois sources d'erreur d'agrégation appelées erreurs de source A, B, et C. Ces erreurs influencent les modèles qui reposent sur des mesures de distance entre des populations et des installations. On considère les effets d'agrégation des secteurs de dénombrement en secteurs de recensement sur un modèle de localisation courant. On identifie une quatrième source d'erreur d'agrégation appelée erreur de source D. Cette erreur découle de la représentation des sites des installations par des points discrets. Ses effets sont du même ordre de grandeur que ceux des sources A et B combinées et beaucoup plus grands que les effets de source G. L'erreur de source D est d'autant plus significative à cause du fait que, contrairement aux erreurs de source A et B, elle ne peut être éliminée que par la désagrégation .     

In Search of Competitive Efficiency: Labour Process Flexibility in Canadian Newsprint Mills

This paper focuses on the strategies for production and work reorganization pursued in the Canadian newsprint industry during the 1990s. Many newsprint mill managers view new pulping technologies and increased labour process flexibility as the important keys to success in their never-ending quest to remain competitive in the U.S. market. These strategies are discussed in the context of two underlying themes: the nature of the particular competitive pressures faced by Canadian newsprint producers in the early 1990s and the specific nature of the labour process in newsprint mills. Evidence points to the central importance of achieving functional labour flexibility in newsprint mills and to the fact that numerical labour flexibility is not a viable strategy, given the continuous-process nature of the industry.
The Economics of Production, Technological Change, and Cost Competitiveness in the Newsprint Industry
Work Practices and Labour Conventions in the Newsprint Industry
Flexibility and the Quest for Competitive Efficiency in Canadian Newsprint Mills     

From Proletarian to Entrepreneur to Big Man: the Story of Noya1

The resemblances between Melanesian Big Men and capitalist entrepreneurs have long fascinated anthropologists. However, even though traditional leaders in Melanesian societies resemble entrepreneurs in certain respects they are motivated by different concerns. In this paper, I consider the career of Noya of the Eastern Highlands of Papua New Guinea to demonstrate the contrasts and confluences between the roles of big man and that of entrepreneur. Noya is neither a traditional big-man nor a pure capitalist, but has drawn selectively upon the logic of each in his drive to achieve promience. His life story provides insights into how big-men articulate with the capitalist world system.     

With This Body I Thee Worship: Sacred Prostitution in Antiquity

Why do ancient writers tell us that sacred prostitutes massed on the citadel of ancient Corinth? What are we to make of Herodotus’ famous account of the ancient customs of Babylon? Beard and Henderson examine the formation of the discourse of sacred, or cultic, prostitution both in classical texts and modern scholarship. They take a sceptical position on the existence, in Greece and the Near East, of institutions traditionally envisaged as ‘sacred prostitution’ and explore the uses which have been, and are still, found for such myth-making with the bodies of women, whether in the form of a ‘marriage-market’ or of various kinds of ‘sacred prostitution’.     

Global firms in local information societies: Work and employment issues for Europe

The strategies of large firms have a major influence on the evolution of the global information society because they dominate the markets for information and communication technologies. This paper examines the user rather than the producer role of large firms, and focuses on the surrounding issues relating to evolving patterns of work and employment. Its discussion of these issues and their policy significance reflects the perspective of the EU on what is effectively a global agenda on the future of work in the information society.