Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

A PRACTICAL NOTE ON THE NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC-BASE MARGINAL MULTIPLIER*

Computation and usage of my neoclassical economic-base marginal multiplier formula (Merrifield, 1987) is simplified. The note points out the economic parameters that must be estimated with some care and for which rough approximations suffice. It also indicates when the size of the multiplier will be significantly affected by the source of the exogenous stimulus (factor- or output-price change). The traditional bifurcation effort must be supplemented with careful estimates of only a small subset of the other parameters. For most of the simulated parameter combinations, the multiplier based on exogenous factor-price changes differed from the multiplier based on output-price changes by less than 10 percent.     

A long revolution: Writing the political history of Queensland regimes

Peter Coaldrake, Working the System: Government in Queensland. University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.l85.$12.95 (paper)

Phil Dickie, The Road to Fitzgerald: Revelations of Corruption Spanning Four Decades, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1988. pp.293. $9.95 (paper); second edition, The Road to Fitzgerald ana Beyond, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.337. $12.95 (paper)

Evan Whitton, The Hillbilly Dictator: Australia's Police State, Australian Broadcasting Corporation Enterprises, Crows Nest, NSW, 1989, pp. 197. $16.99 (paper)

Ross Fitzgerald and Harold Thornton, Labor in Queensland: From the 1880s to 1988. University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.422. $34.95 (paper)

Peter Charlton, State of Mind: Why Queensland is Different, Methuen Haynes, North Ryde, second edition 1987, pp. 263. $12.95 (paper)     

Orientalism Reconsidered: Peter Duignan,Lewis Gann,Edward Said,and the Rebirth of Imperialism

Book reviewed in this article: culture and Imperialism: Edward W. Said The Rebirth of the West: Culture, Politics and Society 7 945–1958: Peter Duignan and L. H. Gann     

Contextualizing Welfare's Work Disincentive: The Case of Female-headed Family Poverty

The conventional model of the relationship between welfare incentives and poverty rates holds that welfare payments produce an income-enhancement effect that removes families from poverty until some threshold. Beyond this point increased payments engender a work-disincentive effect resulting in increased rates of poverty. We challenge the model's assumption that poverty levels are a simple and spatially invariant response to welfare incentives, contending instead that local employment conditions may substantially alter the relation. Our reformulation of the conventional modeling approach is based on the expansion method. Specifically, we extend the model to include the effects of local labor-market conditions on the response of poverty levels to welfare incentives. In contesting the invariance assumption, the expansion method allows us to determine where and in what contexts welfare is “work discouraging.” The empirical analysis, which is undertaken at the county level, indicates that welfare payments vary in their influence on poverty rates across different employment contexts. A national map portraying this parameter instability demonstrates that female-family poverty rates are most responsive to welfare assistance in the rural South and least responsive in the metropolitan Northeast. Finally, we examine two sharply contrasting locales to illustrate how poverty is governed by specific employment and welfare characteristics.