TIME SERIES AND TURNING POINT FORECASTS: A COMPARISON OF ASSOCIATIVE MEMORIES AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LESAGE'S DATA*

ABSTRACT. Associative memory techniques are drawn from the artificial intelligence literature, and have demonstrated considerable utility for parameter identification in dynamical systems. Previous turning point forecasts constructed by LeSage are compared to forecasts generated by associative memories and simple autoregressive models. Both the associative memories and the autoregressions perform as well or better than the more complicated econometric procedures described by LeSage, with the exception of West and Harrison's (1989) dynamic linear model specification. Extensions are suggested.     

Probing the reds and blues: Sectionalism and voter location in the 2000 and 2004 U. S. presidential elections

The election outcomes of a place hinge largely on what is within its political boundaries: economic, social, cultural, and other compositional factors facing voters. Yet, it is also important to investigate geographic context, both within and between places. This study presents renewed emphasis on two geographic factors that relate to electoral outcomes while controlling for compositional attributes: sectional distinctions and population density. Within different regions of the United States and across different locations (urban, suburban, and rural residents), there exist notable differences in presidential voting. Using survey and county-level data on the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, this study evaluates the partisan preferences of voters from a regional perspective, and from a density perspective. The findings demonstrate independent relationships between section and voting, and location and voting. A major consequence of the distinctiveness of section and location in the face of migration effects (as noted by others) is the increased spatial polarization of the electorate's political preferences in these recent presidential contests.     

Nakomaha: a Counter‐Colonial Life and its Contexts. Anthropological Approaches to Biography

ABSTRACT In the anthropology of Melanesia, local life‐histories or biographies have all too often been presented in a non‐problematic, acritical manner. Instead of repeating this hide‐bound style in an unthinking manner, I attempt to be more ethnographically sensitive to local realities and to open up the genre by presenting information about a ni‐Vanuatu leader in a deliberately achronic style. By providing relevant data in terms of their sources, I put up front the biases and blindspots of each source, to enable easier assessment of their worth and to forestall premature closure. In the process I examine the conflictive dialogue between locals and expatriate officials in Vanuatu between the 1940s and 1960s. The final aim is that the open‐ended approach adopted here makes the resulting text more accessible to indigenous readers, who might wish to produce their own version of the subject's life‐history. Writing this kind of biography can thus be viewed as a further attempt towards decolonizing the anthropology of former colonial states.     

Cultural insecurity and its discursive crystallisation in contemporary France

This article analyses the emergence in French public discourse since 2010 of the term ‘insécurité culturelle’ (‘cultural insecurity’). It traces firstly the take-up of the term outside France since the 1980s in anglophone written news media. It establishes four received meanings for the term: a ‘pure’ cultural insecurity expressing simply a relation to the arts world; a nationally refracted cultural insecurity that expresses that relation through the prism of relations between nations; an anthropologico-political conception; and a conception related to the human development paradigm. The take-up in France of the term has conformed to the anthropologico-political conception. Developments after 2002 in France created propitious conditions for coupling the semantic fields of ‘culture’ and ‘insecurity’. The term itself was launched from 2010 through the work of two quite different ‘discursive entrepreneurs’ associated with the erstwhile ‘popular left’ current close to the French Socialist Party (Christophe Guilluy and Laurent Bouvet). The article analyses in both linguistic and political perspectives how the expression has been taken up since 2012 in the national press in France. In particular, it explores the debate concerning the purchase of the term on reality, and its current discursive fit with the agendas of the mainstream and far right.     

Laundering Leo Strauss

Robert Howse's book on Leo Strauss tries to defend Strauss by emphasizing how different he was from today's “Straussians.” In Howse's telling, Strauss's best-known followers favor war and oppression, though Strauss himself did not. To make this case, Howse relies not only on absurd caricatures of Strauss's students but on highly distorted (or highly selective) accounts of what Strauss himself wrote. Howse tries to make a positive case for Strauss as a “man of peace” by showing that Strauss supported “international law.” He makes that case by depicting “international law” as one continuous tradition since Grotius, oblivious to the many varieties of outlooks and doctrines that have invoked some version of international law. On Howse's account, those who have qualms about the United Nations or the European Union must be regarded as nihilists—hence at odds with “Leo Strauss, Man of Peace.”     

How are old places different from new places? A psychological investigation of the correlation between patina,spontaneous fantasies,and place attachment

Abstract

What is ‘age value’? Or conceptualised slightly differently, what is the fundamental difference in the experience and affect of old and new places? In order to answer this question, this study compares historic Charleston, an authentically ‘old’ place and I’On, a ‘new’ place designed on new urbanist principles; both places share essentially the same design but differ in age by over 150 years. A sequential mixed-method approach, consisting of a phenomenology (interviews) followed by a measure of four dimensions of place attachment provided the data for this study; both methods employed photo elicitation techniques. Age value is only associated with patina and spontaneous fantasy in historic Charleston; both of these variables correlate with increased levels of general attachment or dependence. Residents of both neighbourhoods exhibit very high levels of general attachment, dependence and identity, but rootedness is higher in Charleston. Place attachment is correlated with more environmental variables in historic Charleston than it is in I’On. It is important to protect masonry patina because of its association with place attachment. This study lends evidence for why we need to understand the values, perceptions and experiences of civil experts in balance with the objective art/historical values of conventional experts.     

The Dynamics of Governmental Activity: A Long-run Analysis of the Changing Scope and Profile of Australian Ministerial Portfolios

This paper provides a long-run analysis of the scope and profile of government in Australia using the indicator of ministerial portfolios. By scope we refer to the range and intensity of government activity. By profile we refer to the balance of three categories of activity (defining, physical resource mobilisation and social). Although there has been growth in the scope of government in the twentieth century, the rates of change have varied over time, by level of government and by category of activity. Whilst the intensity of government has decreased recently, its range has not. Government has not evacuated areas it once occupied. Because the three categories of activity have grown at different rates, the overall profile of government has changed. We explain the extent to which the increase in government scope has been a function of the undertaking of new responsibilities as opposed to an intensification of existing ones.