Complexity,emergence and cellular urban models: lessons learned from applying SLEUTH to two Portuguese metropolitan areas

We explore the simulation of urban growth using complex systems theory and cellular automata (CA). The SLEUTH urban CA model was applied to two different metropolitan areas in Portugal, with the purposes of allowing a comparative analysis, of using the past to understand the dynamics of the regions under study, and of learning how to adapt the model to local characteristics in the simulation of future scenarios. Analysis of the two case studies show the importance of SLEUTH's self-modification rules in creating emergent urban forms. This behavior can help build an understanding of urban social systems through this class of CA.     

FightingFit? Diet,Disease, and Disability in the Canadian Expeditionary Force, 1914–18

In spite of considerable period propaganda to the otherwise, the average member of the Canadian Expeditionary Force was far from a northern superman. Some, in fact, were quite the opposite. A close analysis of enlistment records indicates that majority of Canada’s would-be warriors not only were — as one might expect — of average height and build, but also that many suffered from a wide variety of health concerns ranging from poor eyesight and dentition through to serious musculoskeletal, neurological, and psychiatric disorders. Moreover, evidence suggests that many recruits were poorly nourished. Indeed, despite the very real horrors and dangers that the Great War presented, the enlistment and discharge weights of CEF members suggests that joining the military was actually good for many Canadian males. This analysis is based on summary statistical examination of the medical and attestation papers of over 20,000 servicemen and a close textual analysis of the full file for a smaller number of men.     

Developing and Applying a Disaggregated Retail Location Model with Extended Retail Demand Estimations

The spatial interaction model (SIM) is an important tool for retail location analysis and store revenue estimation, particularly within the grocery sector. However, there are few examples of SIM development within the literature that capture the complexities of consumer behavior or discuss model developments and extensions necessary to produce models which can predict store revenues to a high degree of accuracy. This article reports a new disaggregated model with more sophisticated demand terms which reflect different types of retail consumer (by income or social class), with different shopping behaviors in terms of brand choice. We also incorporate seasonal fluctuations in demand driven by tourism, a major source of non‐residential demand, allowing us to calibrate revenue predictions against seasonal sales fluctuations experienced at individual stores. We demonstrate that such disaggregated models need empirical data for calibration purposes, without which model extensions are likely to remain theoretical only. Using data provided by a major grocery retailer, we demonstrate that statistically, spatially, and in terms of revenue estimation, models can be shown to produce extremely good forecasts and predictions concerning store patronage and store revenues, including much more realistic behavior regarding store selection. We also show that it is possible to add a tourist demand layer, which can make considerable forecasting improvements relative to models built only with residential demand.     

Reply to the comments on analytical archaeology

A view of the Middle‐Upper Paleolithic transition in Europe is offered from the perspective of Americanist anthropological archaeology. After a brief consideration of how the transition seems to be perceived by many British and Continental workers, patterns in lithic typology and technology, raw material variability, reduction strategies and intensity of site use, blank frequencies; bone, antler and ivory technologies, paleolithic art, subsistence strategies and settlement patterns are reviewed. It is concluded that perceptions of pattern, and what it might mean, are (1) theory‐laden and paradigm dependent, and (2) are almost entirely determined by the relative importance of historicist biases in a particular research tradition, and (3) by preconceptions about the nature of the biological transition between archaic and modern humans.     

The Battle of Ashdown,A.D. 871

An examination of coin evidence from North Wales appears to show that coin ceased to reach the area in the middle of the last decade of the fourth century. The absence of sites from the Notitia Dignitatum in combination with the negative coin evidence is deployed to suggest that forces were withdrawn from the area by Arbogastes during the revolt of Eugenius (A.D. 392–95). The dating of clipped siliquae is reconsidered.