Agroforestry on an Active Volcanic Small Island in Indonesia: Prospering with Adversity

This paper draws on the literature on agroforestry, disaster risk reduction, and livelihoods of people on small islands as it applies to a community prospering in conditions of adversity in Kinali village on Siau Island, Indonesia. Siau Island produces between one‐third and one‐half of all nutmeg and mace exported from Indonesia. The Kinali community has adopted strategies that enable it to prosper in spite of the risks of living on a small island with an active volcano. The paper charts the sociocultural dynamics of the village and examines how local coping mechanisms based on an agroforestry economy have assisted villagers in dealing with the multiple hazards and constraints arising from the biophysical characteristics of their island. The paper thus contributes to more informed responses to managing volcanic risk.     

Modeling of hydrogen production by serpentinization in ultramafic‐hosted hydrothermal systems: application to the Rainbow field

The production of hydrogen by serpentinization in ultramafic‐hosted hydrothermal systems is simulated by coupling thermodynamic and dynamic modeling in the framework of a thermo‐hydraulic single‐pass model where a high‐temperature hydrothermal fluid moves preferentially through a main canal of high permeability. The alteration of ultramafic rocks is modeled with a first‐order kinetic formulation, wherein the serpentinization rate coefficient, K_r, takes the form: K_r = A exp(?α(T ? T₀)²). In this formulation, α determines the temperature range of the reaction and T₀ is the temperature at which the serpentinization rate reaches its maximum. This model is applied to the Rainbow hydrothermal system, which is situated on the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, and characterized by a high temperature, a high mass flux, and a very high hydrogen concentration. The results show that a first‐order kinetic law gives a useful representation of the kinetics of serpentinization. The estimated value for the parameter A in the temperature‐dependent formulation of the serpentinization rate coefficient lies in the range (1–5) × 10^?11 s^?1. This effective parameter is several orders of magnitude lower than the values obtained from small grain‐size experiments, but in agreement with other published modeling studies of natural systems. Numerical simulations show that the venting site is able to produce the observed high concentration of hydrogen during the whole continuous lifetime of the Rainbow site.     

ART‐P‐MAP Neural Networks Modeling of Land‐Use Change: Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity and Uncertainty

Spatial land‐use models over large geographic areas and at fine spatial resolutions face the challenges of spatial heterogeneity, model predictability, data quality, and of the ensuing uncertainty. We propose an improved neural network model, ART‐Probability‐Map (ART‐P‐MAP), tailored to address these issues in the context of spatial modeling of land‐use change. First, it adaptively forms its own network structure to account for spatial heterogeneity. Second, it explicitly infers posterior probabilities of land conversion that facilitates the quantification of prediction uncertainty. Extensive calibration under various test settings is conducted on the proposed model to optimize its utility in seeking useful information within a spatially heterogeneous environment. The calibration strategy involves building a bagging ensemble for training and stratified sampling with varying category proportions for experimentation. Through a temporal validation approach, we examine models’ performance within a systematic assessment framework consisting of global metrics and cell‐level uncertainty measurement. Compared with two baselines, ART‐P‐MAP achieves consistently good and stable performance across experiments and exhibits superior capability to handle the spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty involved in the land‐use change problem. Finally, we conclude that, as a general probabilistic regression model, ART‐P‐MAP is applicable to a broad range of land‐use change modeling approaches, which deserves future research.     

The Holocene fluvial history of the Tremithos river (south central Cyprus) and its linkage to archaeological records

This study aims to reconstruct the Holocene fluvial history of the Tremithos river, south central Cyprus and examine linkages to regional and local archaeological records. Three stratigraphic profiles (Sp1, Sp2 and Sp3) located in the lower valley have been investigated using sedimentology and magnetic parameters. The ¹⁴C dating of 10 samples reveals mid-Holocene ages for Sp1 and Sp2, while the upper most part of Sp3 can be attributed to the early to mid-Holocene. Two main phases of vertical accretion have been recognised: the first, recorded in the lower most part of Sp3, could not be dated but might relate to the late Glacial period. It is not associated with any archaeological artefacts. The second, recorded in all profiles, dating from ca. 5000 to ca. cal 2800 BC, spans the Late Neolithic Sotira (cal 4800/4000 BC) and Late Chalcolithic (cal 2900–2500 BC) cultures. The sediments of Sp1 and Sp2 are up to 8–10 m thick and mainly composed of fine material. However, an intercalated phase of coarse sediment has been identified at the beginning of the third millennium BC, indicating a sudden change in river dynamics, potentially associated with the 5.2 ka rapid climate change regional event. Typical mid-Chalcolithic (ca. cal 3300–3050 BC) ceramics found in a palaeosol in Sp2 indicate for the first time human occupation of the Tremithos river terraces. Two other palaeosols have also been recognised in Sp3 and radiocarbon dated to ca. cal 5600–4100 BC and ca. cal 2900–2600 BC, respectively. These results make it possible to propose a palaeogeographic reconstruction of the Holocene evolution in the Tremithos valley and to make a preliminary assessment of the relative roles of tectonics, climate and anthropogenic forcing.     

The retreat from neoliberalism that was not: Australia’s Building the Education Revolution

This article examines the durability of neoliberalism in the face of crisis by analysing the Building the Education Revolution (BER), a key part of the Australian Labor Government’s stimulus measures in response to the global financial crisis in 2009. The fiscal stimulus measures enacted by governments in the aftermath of the crisis led many commentators to herald the end of neoliberalism. By examining the design of the BER, however, this article finds that one of the key policy tools of neoliberalism – the outsourcing of public sector capacity – was extended through such stimulus programs. The article argues that a materialist analysis of neoliberalism is better able to understand this phenomenon than the recent tendency to analyse neoliberalism in ideational terms.     

Policy Diffusion and Strategies for Promoting Policy Change: Evidence From California Local Gun Control Ordinances

Recent research efforts on policy innovation and diffusion largely have focused upon policymaking at the state government level. In this article we seek to develop an understanding of the ways momentum for policy change can be generated among receptive local governments. We use gun control policymaking within California to illustrate how local government characteristics, the presence of regional associations, and the establishment of interest groups may lead to policy development and diffusion. We also identify linkages between interest groups, focusing events, and the successful use of a new image of gun violence as a public health problem, yielding insights into strategies that may be used successfully to promote policy change.     

Introduction: New Directions in the History of Missionsin Africa

This short article introduces a selection of papers originally presented at the conference, "Africans Meeting Missionaries: Rethinking Colonial Encounters," held at the University of Minnesota in May 1997. Until quite recently much of the scholarship on missions in Africa tended to reproduce early eighteenth- and nineteenth-century images of the colossal, all-powerful missionary. Whether celebrated as an heroic, civilizing agent in mission accounts or branded as a cultural imperialist in nationalist-era scholarship, the European missionary remained an actor scarcely soiled by the cultural commerce of the people on whom he worked. In short, African religious or political initiatives were seldom taken seriously. The papers which make up this collection give voice to and extend current debates surrounding the contested history (and future) of the missionary enterprise in Africa.     

Modeling Air Quality in Urban Areas: A Cell‐Based Statistical Approach

Statistical regression models are presented that explain the observed variations, across urban areas, in the concentrations of two major pollutants, ozone and carbon monoxide. Model specification and estimation are based on an explicit and new spatial framework derived from the theoretical concept of well‐mixed cells, whereby the basic Fickian system of diffusion equations is integrated over the regional space partitioned into a grid of large cells. The concentration in each cell results from the balance of pollutant flows into and out of this cell and of pollutant emissions and removal within that cell, and is expressed as the sum of two concentration contributions: (1) the local effect, dependent upon pollution‐related factors around the measuring station, and (2) the regional effect, dependent upon pollutant flows originating outside the local area. A large database is developed, making extensive use of GIS technology, to spatially relate such data as pollution measurements, meteorological factors, land‐use characteristics, census socioeconomic data, and major highway network characteristics. The results confirm the appropriateness of the well‐mixed cell framework, are in line with general knowledge regarding the determinants of ozone and carbon monoxide concentrations, and clarify the role of transportation, residential fuel use, economic activities, natural environments, and meteorological factors such as temperature and solar radiation. About SO percent of the variations in concentrations are explained by these models. Several areas of further research are outlined.