Second demographic transition or aspirations in transition: an exploratory analysis of lowest-low fertility in Kolkata,India

Fertility transition occurred during the 1970s in Kolkata (erstwhile Calcutta), capital of the state of West Bengal, India, and has remained persistently at the low fertility level. Fertility rate in Kolkata attained its lowest-low level in the beginning of the present century. It currently has the lowest fertility rate (TFR 1.2) in India. This could be a case of second demographic transition (SDT) or pertains to changing dynamics in childbearing, childrearing, and/or aspirations for children. Using primary data of 600 couples (1200 individuals) and employing quantitative and qualitative methods, this study found that constraints in childbearing and childrearing; and aspirations for children have a strong negative and significant effect on second and higher order childbearing among couples, particularly among women. In our study there was no strong evidence of voluntary childlessness as well as decline in the importance of marriage, family and children as posited by SDT. Thus we argue that SDT might have to be redefined for a developing country context.