Chronology and palaeoenvironment of levantine prehistoric sites as seen from sediment studies

Analysis of sediments from the sites of et-Tabun, Jebel Qafza, and Sefunim in Israel, of Ksar 'Aqil in Lebanon, and of Yabrud Rockshelter I and Jerf 'Ajla in Syria leads to a reconstruction of the environments of deposition, periods of weathering and erosion, and relations to changing sea level during the times of occupation of these sites by prehistoric man. The overlapping sequences span the interval from part or all of the last interglaciation through the time of the last glaciation into historic time. Aeolians and from the last interglacial littoral zone and aeolian silt from more distant deserts dominate the site sediments until the early part of the last glaciation (especially at Tabun), whereas colluvial slope deposits, alluvium (Ksar 'Aqil), and angular rockfall debris are characteristic of the mid-last glaciation sediments in most sites, commonly with an admixture of reworked terra rossa soil sediment. These latter sediments seem to reflect a period or periods of greater available moisture or surface run-off. Prominent unconformities mark many sites at times coincident with the final middle palaeolithic (mousterian) occupations or in the interval between middle palaeolithic and upper palaeolithic occupations. It is not clear, in the absence of firm radiometric dates, whether these hiatuses should be correlated from site-to-site or whether they are site-specific. Freeze/thaw phenomena appear not to have played a significant role, if any at all, in the origin of sediments in coastal Levantine sites, although the middle palaeolithic of the Syrian Desert (Yabrud, Jerf 'Ajla) is contained in typical cryoclastic rubble. Finally, the reconstructed sedimentary environments are compared with the still-too-sparse palynological record for the Near East. Parallels of more humid and less humid climatic intervals throughout the past 60,000 to 70,000 years in both of these records reinforce the growing impression of a regionally fluctuating climate in the eastern Mediterranean region during the time of the last glaciation.     

Residential Mobility Patterns and Population Redistribution within the City

A residential change model is derived that allocates migrants to housing vacancies using a Luce-type choice process. The residential change model is then used as the basis for a small area forecasting model designed to predict changes in the size and composition of the population residing in designated areas of the city.