Book reviews

Reappraisals in British Imperial History by Ronald Hyam and Ged Martin. Cambridge Commonwealth Series, London: Macmillan, 1975. Pp. x + 234. £10.00.

The Black Loyalists: The Search for a Promised Land in Nova Scotia and Sierra Leone, 1783–1870 by James W. St. G. Walker. Dalhousie African Studies Series. London: Longman and Dalhousie University Press, 1976. Pp. xvi+438. £8.75. Paper £3.50. New York: Holmes and Meier, 1976. $24.00. Paper $10.00.

The Loyal Blacks by Ellen Gibson Wilson. New York: G. P. Putnam's Sons, 1976. Pp. xi+463. $7.95.

Bibliography of British History 1789–1851 edited by Lucy M. Brown and Ian R. Christie. Clarendon Press: Oxford University Press. 1977. Pp.xxxi+759. £20.

New South Wales—Autocracy to Parliament 1824–1856. Published by the Legislative Council of the Parliament of New South Wales, Parliament House, Sydney, 1976. Pp. vii + 137. Loose‐leaf edition limited to 300 copies.

Office‐Holders in Modern Britain. Volume VI, Colonial Office Officials compiled by J. C. Sainty. London: University of London, Institute of Historical Research. 1976. x + 52 pp. £4.00.

Indian Society and the Beginnings of Modernisation c. 1830–1850 edited by C. H. Philips and Mary Doreen Wainwright. London: School of Oriental and African Studies, 1976. Pp. vi+243. £2.50.

Partner in Empire: Dwarkanath Tagore and the Age of Enterprise in Eastern India by Blair B. Kling. University of California Press, 1976. Pp. xii+276. £15.60.

Buddhism in Sinhalese Society 1750–1900: A Study of Religious Revival and Change by Kitsiri Malalgoda. Berkeley and Los Angeles, California: University of California Press, 1976. Pp. xiii+300. £13.20

Facets of Modern Ceylon History through the Letters of Jeronis Pieris by Michael Roberts. Colombo: Hansa Publishers Limited, 1975. Pp. 108, map, photographs, appendices. (No price is listed ; Distributors, H. W. Cave and Co. Ltd., P. O. Box 25, Colombo, Sri Lanka).

Southeast Asia: A History by Lea E. Williams. New York: Oxford University Press, 1976. Pp. xii+299. £7.50.

A History of Malaysia and Singapore by N. J. Ryan. Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1976. Pp. xiv+322. £16.00.

Comparative History of Civilizations in Asia by Edward L. Farmer et al. Reading (Mass.): Addison‐Wesley Publishing Co., 1977. 2 Vols. Pp. xxx+797. £11.20 each.

Dark Companions: The African Contribution to the European Exploration of East Africa by Donald Simpson. London: Paul Elek, 1976. Pp. xi+228. £7.50.

Europäische Kolonialherrschaft 1880–1940 by Rudolf von Albertini, in association with Albert Wirz. Zurich and Freiburg im Breisgau: Atlantis Verlag, 1976. Pp. 528, 20 maps. DM. 54 (hardback), DM. 45 (paperback).

Oil and Empire: British Policy and Mesopotamian Oil 1900–1920 by Marian Kent, London: Macmillan, 1976. Pp. xiii+273. £10.

On Revolt: Strategies of National Liberation by J. Bowyer Bell. Cambridge (Mass.): Harvard U.P., 1976. Pp. xv+272. £11.25.

The Erosion of a Relationship: India and Britain since 1960 by Michael Lipton and John Firn. Oxford University Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs: London, 1976. Pp. xvi+427. £13.00.     

TIME SERIES AND TURNING POINT FORECASTS: A COMPARISON OF ASSOCIATIVE MEMORIES AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LESAGE'S DATA*

ABSTRACT. Associative memory techniques are drawn from the artificial intelligence literature, and have demonstrated considerable utility for parameter identification in dynamical systems. Previous turning point forecasts constructed by LeSage are compared to forecasts generated by associative memories and simple autoregressive models. Both the associative memories and the autoregressions perform as well or better than the more complicated econometric procedures described by LeSage, with the exception of West and Harrison's (1989) dynamic linear model specification. Extensions are suggested.