考古学中的时间不确定性及其数学解决方案

考古学研究中时间的不确定性是一个普遍的问题,而概率是表达考古学时间不确定性的一种有效方式。利用概率表达的时间可以借助统计学的方法定量处理,蒙特卡洛随机模拟则是其中一种有效的手段。本文以区域系统调查陶片的断代和碳十四测年样品的等时段分布为例介绍了简单的蒙特卡洛方法的应用及其在解决考古学时间不确定性方面的优势。     

Understanding the Sunni Realignment in Iraq with Complexity Theory

Concurrent to the surge of U.S. forces in Iraq between 2006 and 2008, Sunni tribesmen in the U.S. Marine‐controlled western Anbar province of Iraq experienced an “awakening” movement, which led them to side with U.S. and coalition forces. The Sunni Awakening demonstrates that individuals will often realign because of betrayal and opportunities for advancement. It also demonstrates that individual motives can have macrolevel social consequences. Complexity theory suggests that political factions will realign based on individual considerations that then develop into macrolevel movements. Complexity theory also combines both agency (in terms of microbehaviors) and structure (in terms of initial conditions). An important concept within the complexity literature is the idea of “critical mass.” Theories of self‐organization suggest that individual considerations aggregate to a point of critical mass to become macrolevel movements. In the case of Iraq, you had individuals who decided as individuals to align with the Americans, but the macrolevel Awakening movement did not gain momentum until enough individuals had joined the movement. This pattern suggests that complexity theory can be used as a framework for understanding how critical mass is achieved in realignment.     

Iran and Political Dynamism in the Arab World: the Case of Yemen

This article examines the role of Iran in Yemen within the context of Arab‐Iranian relations. It also examines the debate on the involvement of Iran in the ongoing political developments in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. The article focuses on the Houthi Movement in Yemen, its origin, growth and political expansion. It also investigates its relations with Iran and its allies in the region, and discusses other factors that strengthened its political image in Yemen. The article also provides an early assessment of the implication of the Decisive Storm military led by Saudi Arabia.     

Gender disparities in child health care seeking in northern Vietnam

Vietnam recently demonstrated a skewed sex ratio at birth. Little research has examined postnatal impacts of son preference in Vietnam, such as in child health care seeking. Past research in other Asian countries with son preference has found that parents are more likely to take sons to a health facility when they are sick, to do so more promptly, and invest more resources in care, than daughters. Using data from a paediatric hospital emergency department, we analyse gender differences in illnesses, referral patterns, and outcomes among children to understand how gender disparities in paediatric hospital admissions arise. Almost twice as many boys were brought into the facility as girls. Compared to girls, boys were significantly more likely to have bypassed lower-level facilities and entered care at the tertiary facility, controlling for severity of illness and socio-demographic characteristics. This suggests parents provide preferential treatment to boys, potentially leading to excess morbidity among girls who become ill. However, we find no significant differences in delay of care seeking or evidence of provider bias. Ensuring that girls are able to access appropriate, quality care when needed, will improve equity of access to care for all children.