The decline and shifting geography of violence in Russia’s North Caucasus, 2010-2016

Abstract

A spatial analysis of the geography of insurgency in the North Caucasus of Russia from 1999 through the end of 2016, focused on the period since 2010, corroborates other work on the incidence of violence in the region. A sharp drop in the absolute number of conflict events over the past half-decade occurred as violence diffused from Chechnya in the mid-2000s and is attributable to a range of domestic and international factors. Domestically, the decline is broadly linked to the securitization of the region around the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the return to the use of the Kremlin power vertical as a system of political management after an interlude focused on economic development as a mitigation strategy, and the wider adoption of harsh management tactics at the regional and republic scales. Internationally, potential insurgents have left Russia to fight in the Middle East and Ukraine. Using a conflict-event data-set (N = 18,960) from August 1999 through the end of 2016 and focusing on the period since the creation of the North Caucasus Federal District in January 2010, the paper identifies a set of notable trends within the decline and shift in violence. Key findings include a percentage increase in arrests carried out by Russian security services, a decline in retaliation across conflict actors, and the failure of federal subsidies to contribute to declines in violence in the region. The long-term prospects for continued insurgency in the North Caucasus, specifically in light of the collapse of the Islamic State and Russia’s domestic challenges, remain uncertain and should acknowledge the recent decline in violence in the region.     

A History of Chinese Immigration in the United States and Canada

The 2005 Québec novel by Nicolas Dickner (English publication, 2008) presents intertextual effects that become a reflection on writing. The novel is a voyage of self-discovery while offering connections to Melville, Joseph Conrad, the German “bildungsroman,” nineteenth century classic novels, twentieth century French existentialist essays, Anglo-Saxon seafaring sagas, Central and South American imaginative tales, “cric-crac” stories of Québécois “raconteurs,” subversive Canadian novels, adventure stories, detective narratives, comic books and computer-generated discourse. This complex mise en abyme of writing through interlacing genres stands as a metaphor for diversity and rootlessness in North American society.     

A Fractal Approach to Identifying Urban Boundaries. 城市边界识别的分形方法

Fractal geometry can be used for determining the morphological boundaries of metropolitan areas. A two‐step method is proposed here: (1) Minkowski's dilation is applied to detect any multiscale spatial discontinuity and (2) a distance threshold is located on the dilation curve corresponding to a major change in its behavior. We therefore measure the maximum curvature of the dilation curve. The method is tested on theoretical urban patterns and on several European cities to identify their morphological boundaries and to track boundary changes over space and time. Results obtained show that cities characterized by comparable global densities may exhibit different distance thresholds. The less the distances separating buildings differ between an urban agglomeration and its surrounding built landscape, the greater the distance threshold. The fewer the buildings that are connected across scales, the greater the distance threshold.     

Waste Not Want Not? Australia and the Politics of High-level Nuclear Waste

During 1999 and 2000, Australian governments rejected a proposal put forward by Pangea Resources to place an international high-level radioactive waste repository somewhere on the Australian continent. The decision was marked by tensions between competing political objectives, and was driven partly by an unusual alliance between pro-uranium mining governments and anti-nuclear non-government organisations (NGOs). The article begins by placing Australia's current nuclear policies in historical context, focusing on the stances taken by the major political parties. The second section briefly describes the Pangea proposal and the Australian response. The third section considers why Australia might have reacted differently. The fourth section critically reviews some of the reasons why the Pangea proposal elicited such hostility. Finally, the article discusses key policy barriers to the proposal, concluding that these are unlikely to disappear and that as a result Pangea and any other similar organisations would have little chance of pursuing their objectives in Australia.