TIME SERIES AND TURNING POINT FORECASTS: A COMPARISON OF ASSOCIATIVE MEMORIES AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LESAGE'S DATA*

ABSTRACT. Associative memory techniques are drawn from the artificial intelligence literature, and have demonstrated considerable utility for parameter identification in dynamical systems. Previous turning point forecasts constructed by LeSage are compared to forecasts generated by associative memories and simple autoregressive models. Both the associative memories and the autoregressions perform as well or better than the more complicated econometric procedures described by LeSage, with the exception of West and Harrison's (1989) dynamic linear model specification. Extensions are suggested.     

Tectonic evolution of a Paleozoic thrust fault influences the hydrogeology of a fractured rock aquifer,northeastern Appalachian foreland

In polyorogenic regions, the superposition of structures during a protracted tectonic history produces complex fractured bedrock aquifers. Thrust‐faulted regions, in particular, have complicated permeability patterns that affect groundwater flow paths, quantity, and quality. In the Appalachian foreland of northwestern Vermont, numerous bedrock wells that are spatially related to the Paleozoic Hinesburg thrust have elevated naturally occurring radioactivity and/or low yields. The association of groundwater quality and quantity issues with this thrust was a unique opportunity to investigate its structural and hydrogeologic framework. The Hinesburg thrust juxtaposed metamorphic rocks of the hanging wall with sedimentary rocks of the footwall during the Ordovician. It was then deformed by two orthogonal Devonian fold sets and was fractured during the Cretaceous. Median well yields in the hanging wall aquifer are significantly lower than those of the footwall aquifer, consistent with the respective permeability contrast between metamorphic and carbonate rocks. For wells drilled through the Hinesburg thrust, those completed closest (vertically) to the thrust have the highest median yields, whereas others completed farther below have yields in the footwall range. The geochemical signature of the hanging wall and footwall aquifers correlates with their whole‐rock geochemistry. The hanging wall aquifer is enriched in alpha radiation, Na+K‐Cl, Ba, and Sr, whereas the footwall aquifer is enriched in Ca‐Mg‐HCO₃ and alkalinity. Wells that penetrated the Hinesburg thrust generally have hanging wall geochemical signatures. A simple hydrogeologic model for the permeability evolution of the Hinesburg thrust involves the ductile emplacement of a low‐K hanging wall onto a high‐K footwall, with subsequent modification by fractures.     

Rice,Ethnicity, and the Collation of Archaeobotanical Data for Prehistoric Korea

Nationalism and archaeology are universally and almost unavoidably intertwined. The multilevel influence of nationalism not only delimits the legitimate interpretations of archaeological data but also determines the retrieval, analysis and dissemination of data. This point is illustrated in the present study with a historical overview of archaeobotanical data collation at four prehistoric sites, two in North Korea and two in South Korea, that were excavated between 1957 and 1981. The paper examines the persistent and increasing archaeological interest since the early 1970s in the search for rice, a crop that constitutes an integral part of the Korean ethnic identity. The remains of rice have tended to receive more scholarly attention, be subject to extended discussion, and be more widely publicized, compared to the relatively neglected research on the remains of other “miscellaneous” crops. This demonstrates that botanical remains from archaeological sites, often presented as an outcome of scientific scrutiny, are a social product and that greater attention needs to be paid to local archaeological concerns before the data are compared internationally or across different research traditions.     

Does Spatial Clustering of Foreign Direct Investment Foster Global Production Networks? The Case of Qingdao,China

This article examines how spatial clustering of foreign direct investment (FDI) can foster a global production network (GPN). The cluster concept, in general, stressed inter-firm relations between local and regional firms while neglecting global–local linkages in the spatial context. In contrast, GPN focuses on the advantages of international production organization and governance structure but underestimates regional or localized channels of production arrangement. By integrating the conceptual framework of spatial clustering of FDI and GPN, this paper provides empirical evidence of various channels to knowledge and innovation transfer between domestic firms and foreign-invested enterprises. This paper demonstrates that the different types of linkages formation are key determinant factors for establishing cluster through contributing to local economic development.     

Industrial Warriors: South Korea’s First Generation of Industrial Workers in Post-Developmental Korea

This study analyses the skills upgrading programmes of South Korea’s first generation of skilled workers, focusing on their political and social trajectories from bulwarks of the developmental regimes up until 1987, to a “labour aristocracy” of regular workers employed mainly in large companies in heavy industries in South Korea. The term “labour aristocracy” highlights how the “regular workers”, employed mostly in monopolistic large enterprises in heavy industries, have better wages, job security and other social benefits than “non-regular workers” and other regular workers employed in small and medium companies. It argues that these “Industrial Warriors” were the product of the Korean developmental state’s creation of an egalitarian social contract, and that the political and social trajectories since then must be seen in its totality. This is necessary because it manifests the profound change in Korea’s political economy from state-grassroots synergistic developmentalism to neoliberal industrial capitalism, wherein having a regular job has become a substantial asset in an era of non-regular employment. This study contributes to the literature on the political economy and to sociological discussion of the Korean developmental state that continues to this day and is far from over.     

Lasting Monuments and Durable Institutions: Labor, Urbanism, and Statehood in Northern Vietnam and Beyond

Archaeological research on monumentality, early urbanism, and emergent statehood in Southeast Asia and Vietnam has grown dramatically in recent years, and our understanding of social evolution in Southeast Asia has moved beyond traditional models of Sinicization and Indianization. Although many researchers recognize the significance of the historic and classical states of the first and second millennia AD, the seeds of statehood and urbanism can be seen in a moated settlement pattern during the first millennium BC. The largest in this category of Iron Age settlements, the heavily fortified Co Loa site in Vietnam’s Red River Valley, is emblematic of a tradition of settlements marked by earthworks and moat systems. The scale and extent of Co Loa’s massive earthen rampart system, involving a complex construction enterprise, reflect planning and implementation by a highly centralized, multigenerational, and institutionalized authority. Dating to the last centuries BC, Co Loa represents one of the earlier ancient state-level societies in Vietnam and the wider Southeast Asian region. Ultimately, the durability of Co Loa’s institutions of power and governance is suggested by the nature of its rampart system and construction process, and a package of variables contributed to emergent complexity. In particular, the presence of a monumental system of defensive works, combined with other archaeological markers for intraregional competition and violence, underscores the potential role of warfare and physical coercion in the course of political centralization.     

Introduction： Interfaces in Qing Frontier History

Inspired by the vibrant state of the last several decades of scholarship concerning the Qing frontier, the three authors of this introduction organized the “International Workshop on Defining the Jecen： The Evolution of the Qing Frontier, 1644-1918,” which took place on May 25-26, 2012, at the sponsoring institutions-Hong Kong Baptist University and the Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong. The primary objective of the workshop was to foster dialogue among colleagues from several Asian and North American institutions who currently are researching the Qing frontier. All participants were encouraged to contribute insights into long-standing questions based on the methodologies derived from their own scholarly backgrounds. Apart from aiming to break down unnecessary barriers of language, geography, and theoretical orientation, the conference also promoted two approaches to the topic that will simultaneously further the progress of contemporary pioneers and open fresh paths for future innovation.